行内偕作·宏观点评：欧央行议息会议点评（2024年6月）-年内或难再次降息

Economic Outlook - The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered key interest rates by 25 basis points, aligning with previous guidance rather than current economic conditions[5][8]. - The Eurozone economy is showing signs of recovery, with the growth forecast for 2024 revised up from 0.3% to 0.9%[17]. - Eurozone inflation has shown a rebound, with May's HICP inflation rising from 2.4% to 2.6%, and core HICP inflation increasing from 2.7% to 2.9%[7]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The ECB has acknowledged progress in reducing inflation but has raised future inflation forecasts, with 2024's inflation expected at 2.5% and 2025's at 2.2%[7]. - The core services HICP inflation remains stubbornly high, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% in May, above the acceptable level of 0.2%[7]. - The ECB will continue its quantitative tightening plan, reducing the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) by €7.5 billion monthly in the second half of 2024[19]. Market Reactions - Following the rate cut, the euro strengthened slightly against the dollar, rising from 1.087 to 1.089, and the Eurozone STOXX 50 index increased by 0.67%[9]. - The bond yields of major Eurozone countries remained stable, with minimal fluctuations observed in Italian, German, and French government bonds[9]. - The interbank euro-dollar liquidity remains ample, with borrowing costs reflecting only the recent rate cut without anticipating further reductions[9].