Europe Emerging Markets Research 02 August 2024 J P M O R G A N EM Quick Take: Risk premia in Israel's local markets • Amid increased geopolitical risks in the region we assess risk premia in Israel's local markets. • We find risk premia are currently on par with October 2023 and in some cases even exceeding that period. • In FX, USDILS spot is trading significantly above its fair value, with xccy basis reacting for the first time since October, indicative of USD liquidity demand. • In rates, the spread of ...

Fund Flows Summary - Euro investment grade funds saw an inflow of €1.1bn (0.4% of AUM) for the week ending 31 July [1][6] - Sterling investment grade funds experienced an outflow of £71mm (0.1% of AUM) for the same week [1][10] - European high yield funds registered an inflow of €428mm (0.5% of AUM) [1][15] - European strategic funds (ex Target Date) saw an inflow of €302mm (0.2% of AUM) [20] Euro Investment Grade Funds - Weekly inflow of €1.1bn (0.4% of AUM) includes €49mm (0.1% of AUM) from ETFs and €602mm (0.6% of AUM) from short duration funds [6] - Provisional June flows show an inflow of €3.8bn (1.2% of AUM) [6] - Cumulative flows from Jan 2024 stand at €25bn (8.7% of AUM) [7] Sterling Investment Grade Funds - Weekly outflow of £71mm (0.1% of AUM) includes £41mm (1.4% of AUM) from ETFs and £140mm (1.7% of AUM) from short duration funds [10] - Provisional June flows indicate an outflow of £976mm (1.8% of AUM) [10] - Cumulative flows from Jan 2024 show an outflow of £1.8bn (3.2% of AUM) [11] European High Yield Funds - Weekly inflow of €428mm (0.5% of AUM) includes €57mm (0.5% of AUM) from ETFs and €66mm (0.8% of AUM) from short duration funds [15] - Provisional June flows show an outflow of €47mm (0.1% of AUM) [16] - Cumulative flows from Jan 2024 stand at €6.8bn (8.6% of AUM) [17] European Strategic Funds (ex Target Date) - Weekly inflow of €302mm (0.2% of AUM) includes €34mm (0.1% of AUM) from subordinated credit funds and €36mm (0.3% of AUM) from crossover funds [20] - Provisional June flows indicate an inflow of €856mm (0.6% of AUM) [21] - Cumulative flows from Jan 2024 show an inflow of €10.6bn (7.1% of AUM) [21] European Credit Target Date Funds - Weekly outflow of €27mm (0.1% of AUM) [24] - Provisional June flows show an outflow of €505mm (0.9% of AUM) [25] - Cumulative flows from Jan 2024 stand at an outflow of €2.4bn (3.8% of AUM) [26]

Europe Credit Research 02 August 2024 J P M O R G A N European Credit Weekly Warning lights are flashing • We are revising our FY24 euro investment grade and high yield spread targets upwards to 150bp and 425bp, respectively, implying 25bp and 58bp of widening from yesterday's levels. • In our view, the market is facing a potent cocktail of: i) divergence in spreads from rates markets and equity volatility; ii) weaker economic data; iii) more balanced technicals with risks to demand from lower yields; iv) g ...

02 August 2024 J P M O R G A N Global Rates Strategy Euro Cash Tactical duration & OW intra-EMU ex-France/€-SSA Aditya Chordia AC (44-20) 7134-2132 aditya.x.chordia@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Matteo Mamprin (44-20) 7134-0329 matteo.mamprin@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc • DM yields rallied sharply since our last publication two weeks ago, driven by mixed data in the Eurozone, growing confidence in an imminent Fed rate cut and with BoE delivering the first cut • We took profit on our ta ...

Global Technical Analysis Research 02 August 2024 J P M O R G A N Equity Index Technical Update Damaged charts and end-of-cycle market signals Technical Strategy Jason Hunter AC (1-212) 270-0034 jason.x.hunter@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC • The 2024 Institutional Investor Global Fixed Income Research Survey closes today, August 2nd. If our work has been useful to you over the past year, we humbly ask you to support J.P. Morgan in this year's survey here, in the USA: Technical Analysis, Developed ...

EM Sovereign Cross Currency Report August 1, 2024 Summary of sovereign EUR bond spread versus USD, bp Cross-Currency Basis -ESTR/Euribor basis Note: EURUSD basis refers to SOFR/ESTR cross currency basis Jun-22 Oct-22 Feb-23 Jun-23 Oct-23 Feb-24 Jun-24 Emerging Markets Strategy Nishant Poojary (44-20) 3493-3859 J.P.Morgan Securities plc Average spread to xccy-adjusted USD curve, bp | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------|-------------|------------|-----------|-- ...

J P M O R G A N North America Securitized Products Research 02 August 2024 Views Nick Maciunas AC (1-212) 834-5671 nicholas.m.maciunas@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Alex Kraus (1-212) 834-5954 alexander.d.kraus@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Sanjana Prasad (1-212) 834-5720 sanjana.t.prasad@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC David Kaminsky (1-212) 834-5116 david.kaminsky@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Agency MBS Don't change the channel, we'll be right back • II voting closes ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Underweight recommendation on Telefonica [8]. Core Insights - Altice International's sale of Teads to Outbrain is valued at approximately $1 billion, with Altice receiving $725 million at close and $105 million in convertible preferred equity, indicating a strategic shift [3][4]. - Bouygues reported H1 results with total revenues up 1% year-on-year, but telecom revenues fell short of estimates, leading to a reaffirmation of FY24 guidance [3][4]. - Cellnex's Q2 results showed a 6% revenue increase from its tower business, with EBITDAaL growing by 7.8% year-on-year, reflecting operational efficiency [4][5]. - Digi announced the acquisition of Nowo Communications for €150 million, expanding its mobile and fixed client base [4]. - Inwit reported Q2 revenues of €257 million, up 8.2% year-on-year, driven by CPI-linked price increases and new service developments [4]. - Liberty Global's financial policy focuses on shareholder value, with plans for share buybacks and a commitment to maintaining a leveraged credit group [5]. - Telecom Italia's Q2 results were slightly ahead of expectations, with a focus on its ServCo business and a target to reduce net leverage to below 2.0x by year-end 2024 [8]. - Vodafone launched a tender offer and €500 million senior issue to reduce debt, following the completion of its Vodafone Spain divestment [8]. - Wolters Kluwer reported a 6% organic revenue increase in Q2, with a reaffirmation of FY24 guidance [9]. Summary by Company - **Altice International**: Sale of Teads valued at ~$1 billion, strategic portfolio review nearing completion [3]. - **Bouygues**: H1 revenues rose 1% y/y, telecom revenues fell short, FY24 guidance reaffirmed [3][4]. - **Cellnex**: Q2 revenue growth of 6%, EBITDAaL up 7.8% y/y, operational efficiency noted [4][5]. - **Digi**: Acquisition of Nowo Communications for €150 million announced [4]. - **Inwit**: Q2 revenues of €257 million, up 8.2% y/y, driven by new service developments [4]. - **Liberty Global**: Focus on shareholder value, plans for share buybacks, maintaining leverage [5]. - **Telecom Italia**: Slightly ahead of expectations in Q2, targeting net leverage <2.0x by YE24 [8]. - **Vodafone**: Launched tender offer and €500 million senior issue for debt reduction [8]. - **Wolters Kluwer**: 6% organic revenue growth in Q2, FY24 guidance reaffirmed [9].

North America Equity Research 02 August 2024 J P M O R G A N AER / AL Earnings Takeaways (+DUBAEE/AVOL/GALCLD) Downgrading AER Credit to N From OW (Equity Remains OW) More of the same for lessors reporting yesterday and today – OEM delays (both airframes and engines) amid strong global demand (at least for replacement aircraft) are creating covetable positions for the leasing community who are reextending leases (in the case of AER, it remains >80%) at attractive rates. But it appears equity investor patien ...

Equity Research Report Queclink Wireless (300590 CH) Earnings Grew Rapidly in 1H24, Profitability on the Rise 1H24 earnings in line with profit alert, profitability improving Queclink Wireless reported 1H24 results, logging revenue of RMB480mn (+12.7% yoy), attributable net profit (NP) of RMB100mn (+59.2% yoy), and recurring attributable NP of RMB90mn (+31.9% yoy, in line with its profit alert). For 2Q24, revenue/attributable NP/recurring attributable NP were RMB270/60/60mn, up 7.1/ 48.4/7.5% yoy, slowing v ...