2025 年 4 月 8 日 沈嘉婕 | H70455@capital.com.tw | | | --- | --- | | 目标价(港币) | 17.3 | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | 汽车 | | --- | --- | --- | | H 股价(2025/04/07) | | 13.42 | | 恒生指数(2025/04/07) | | 19,828.3 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 18.98/7.47 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 10,077.39 | | H 股数(百万) | | 10,077.39 | | H 市值(亿元) | | 1,352.39 | | | 浙江吉利控股集 | | | 主要股东 | | 团有限公司 | | | | (39.94%) | | 每股净值(元) | | 8.61 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 1.56 | | 一个月 | 三个月 一年 | | | 股价涨跌(%) -24.86% | -5.36% 49.40% | | 近期评等 | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2024-1 ...

2025 年 4 月 8 日 沈嘉婕 | H70455@capital.com.tw | | | --- | --- | | 目标价(港币) | 17.3 | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | 汽车 | | --- | --- | --- | | H 股价(2025/04/07) | | 13.42 | | 恒生指数(2025/04/07) | | 19,828.3 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 18.98/7.47 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 10,077.39 | | H 股数(百万) | | 10,077.39 | | H 市值(亿元) | | 1,352.39 | | | 浙江吉利控股集 | | | 主要股东 | | 团有限公司 | | | | (39.94%) | | 每股净值(元) | | 8.61 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 1.56 | | 一个月 | 三个月 一年 | | | 股价涨跌(%) -24.86% | -5.36% 49.40% | | 近期评等 | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2024-1 ...

2025 年 04 月 08 日 | H70420@capitalcom.tw | | | --- | --- | | 顾向君 目标价(港币) | 34 | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | 商贸零售 | | --- | --- | | H 股价(2025/04/07) | 29.05 | | 恒生指数(2025/04/07) | 19,828.3 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | 51.12/24.6 | | 总发行股数(百万) | 1,251.34 | | H 股数(百万) | 1,251.34 | | H 市值(亿元) | 363.51 | | 主要股东 | 杨云云(62.7%) | | 每股净值(元) | 8.25 | | 股价/帐面净值 | 3.52 | | | 一个月 三个月 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | -23.17 -43.17 -23.04 | 近期评等 | | | 产品组合 | 名创优品 | 94.2% | | --- | --- | | TOPTOY | 5.8% | 股价相对大盘走势 C o m p a n y U p d a t e C h i n a R e s e a r c ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longyuan Power [2][7][17] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 37.07 billion RMB for 2024, a decrease of 2.6% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.425 billion RMB, a slight increase of 0.2% [7] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.2278 RMB per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 30% based on the net profit [7] - Longyuan Power's wind power segment faced challenges with a decrease in utilization hours, but the recovery in electricity prices and reduced impairment losses contributed to positive growth in the segment's performance [7] - The photovoltaic segment saw significant growth in installed capacity, but faced challenges due to increased fixed asset impairments [7] - The company is transitioning to a pure renewable energy enterprise by divesting its thermal power assets [7] - Longyuan Power plans to start new renewable energy projects with a total capacity of 5GW in 2025, indicating strong growth potential [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Longyuan Power are as follows: 35.703 billion RMB in 2025, 38.176 billion RMB in 2026, and 40.332 billion RMB in 2027, with respective growth rates of -4%, 7%, and 6% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 7.132 billion RMB in 2025, 7.536 billion RMB in 2026, and 8.046 billion RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 11%, 6%, and 7% respectively [6] - The earnings per share are projected to be 0.85 RMB in 2025, 0.90 RMB in 2026, and 0.96 RMB in 2027 [6] - The price-to-earnings ratio is expected to decrease from 7.1 in 2023 to 5.8 in 2027, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for 康耐特光学 (02276.HK) with a target price of HKD 40.50 [2][8] Core Views - The impact of the recent US tariff adjustments on the company's revenue is expected to be limited, with a projected direct revenue impact of approximately 2.2% if the company absorbs 50% of the new tariffs [2][8] - Customer order volumes for Q1 2025 are in line with the company's expectations, indicating that revenue is likely to remain at a high level [2] - The company has a well-established global production capacity and a diversified market strategy to mitigate tariff risks [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from HKD 2,061 million in 2024 to HKD 3,538 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.2% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from HKD 428 million in 2024 to HKD 839 million in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 24.6% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from HKD 1.00 in 2024 to HKD 1.75 in 2027 [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading manufacturer in the lens industry, actively developing its smart glasses segment as a second growth curve [8] - The US market accounted for 13% of the company's revenue in 2024, with a high markup in the lens distribution channel, making it less sensitive to price increases due to tariffs [8] - The company is expanding its production capacity in Thailand to enhance supply chain resilience and reduce tariff risks [8] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 19.4 in 2024 to 11.2 in 2027, indicating an attractive valuation as earnings grow [4] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 5.2 in 2024 to 2.1 in 2027, further supporting the investment case [4]

2025 年 04 月 08 日 近期评等 | | | 产品组合 | 名创优品 | 94.2% | | --- | --- | | TOPTOY | 5.8% | | H70420@capitalcom.tw | | | --- | --- | | 顾向君 目标价(港币) | 34 | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | 商贸零售 | | --- | --- | | H 股价(2025/04/07) | 29.05 | | 恒生指数(2025/04/07) | 19,828.3 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | 51.12/24.6 | | 总发行股数(百万) | 1,251.34 | | H 股数(百万) | 1,251.34 | | H 市值(亿元) | 363.51 | | 主要股东 | 杨云云(62.7%) | | 每股净值(元) | 8.25 | | 股价/帐面净值 | 3.52 | | | 一个月 三个月 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | -23.17 -43.17 -23.04 | 股价相对大盘走势 C o m p a n y U p d a t e C h i n a R e s e a r c ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in profits for Q1 2025, with pre-tax and post-tax profits of 260 million and 190 million CNY, respectively, representing year-on-year decreases of 36.3% and 43.4% [2]. - The overseas compliance trend is improving, and the proprietary brand business is expected to continue performing well, driven by stricter regulations on illegal vaping products and market expansion [2][4]. - Increased marketing investments in proprietary brand business and rising stock incentive amortization and R&D expenses are impacting short-term profit performance, but the long-term outlook remains positive [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025-2027, the expected EPS is 0.20, 0.40, and 0.56 CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 46, 23, and 17 times [4]. - Revenue projections show a growth trajectory from 11,168 million CNY in 2023 to 19,489 million CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.45% [7]. - The net profit is expected to recover from 1,303 million CNY in 2024 to 3,451 million CNY in 2027, indicating a strong rebound in profitability [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the benchmark index by more than 15% [1][11]. Core Insights - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue for 2024, with total revenue reported at 6.589 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.68% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 469 million yuan, down 44.10% year-on-year [1][3]. - The decline in revenue was primarily driven by a negative operating leverage effect, with online channels showing growth while offline direct and distribution channels saw revenue declines. The online channel revenue grew by 16.57% to 1.129 billion yuan, accounting for 17.14% of total revenue [3][4]. - The company plans to strengthen brand building and enhance operational efficiency in offline channels while focusing on online platforms like Xiaohongshu to maintain competitive advantages [9]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 75.4%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year. However, the net profit margin fell to 7.1%, down 5.0 percentage points year-on-year due to increased sales and management expense ratios [5][10]. - The company’s inventory increased by 36.4% year-on-year, reaching 1.572 billion yuan by the end of 2024. The net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 36.51% to 996 million yuan [5][10]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.89, 1.00, and 1.09 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 7.9, 7.0, and 6.4 times [9][10]. Revenue Breakdown - By brand, La Koradior achieved revenue of 2.156 billion yuan, a decline of 9.68%, while NEXY.CO saw a slight increase of 0.79% to 1.012 billion yuan. The online channel's strong performance was attributed to platforms like Vipshop and Douyin [4][5]. - The offline channels reported a revenue of 5.172 billion yuan, down 6.97% year-on-year, while the distribution channel revenue fell by 25.17% to 287 million yuan [4][5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is facing a challenging domestic consumption environment, with net store closures in direct and distribution channels. However, the rapid growth of online channels presents a potential for recovery and performance elasticity as the market stabilizes [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in profits for Q1 2025, with pre-tax and post-tax profits of 260 million and 190 million CNY, respectively, representing year-on-year decreases of 36.3% and 43.4% [2]. - The overseas compliance trend is improving, and the proprietary brand business is expected to continue performing well. The revenue is anticipated to grow due to stricter regulations on illegal vaping products and the expansion of the compliant market [2]. - Increased marketing investments in proprietary brand business and rising stock incentive amortization and R&D expenses are impacting short-term profit performance, but the overall profit impact is seen as temporary [3]. - The company is rationally addressing tariff impacts on its HNB (Heat-not-Burn) business, with a focus on markets in Japan and Europe, while the growth logic for HNB remains unchanged [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 11,168 million CNY, with a projected growth rate of -8.04% for 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 10.79%, 23.78%, and 20.45% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 1,645 million CNY, with a significant decline of 34.47% expected in 2024, followed by a gradual recovery [7]. - The diluted EPS is projected to be 0.20, 0.40, and 0.56 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 46, 23, and 17 [4][7].

纺织服饰 赢家时尚（03709.HK） 买入-B(维持) 2024 年盈利能力稳中有升，线上渠道快速增长 2025 年 4 月 8 日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 事件描述 3 月 25 日，公司发布 2024 年度业绩。2024 年，公司实现营收 65.89 亿 元，同比下降 4.68%；实现归母净利润 4.69 亿元，同比下降 44.10%。 事件点评 2024 年公司营收小幅下降，负经营杠杆致使业绩表现弱于营收。营收端， 2024 年，公司实现营收 65.89 亿元，同比下降 4.68%。分渠道角度看，营收增 长主要由电商渠道增长带动，线下直营及经销渠道收入同比下滑。业绩端， 2024 年，公司实现归母净利润 4.69 亿元，同比下降 44.10%。2024 年，公司业 绩降幅高于营收降幅，主因销售费用率及管理费用率提升、其它收入及收益下 降，部分被销售毛利率同比改善所抵消。 13.420/6.560 7.04/7.04 资料来源：最闻，山西证券研究所 高端品牌 La Koradior 营收增长超过 10%，线上渠道表现靓丽。分品牌 看 ， 2024 年 ， Koradior 实 现 营 收 ...