Investment Rating - The report indicates an optimistic outlook on China's export growth, suggesting resilience in the face of global trade dynamics [2][17]. Core Insights - China's export value in USD terms increased by 4% year-on-year (yoy) in the first seven months of 2024, with a notable growth in export value in RMB terms (6.7%) and export volume (approximately 15%) [2][17]. - The trade surplus in 7M24 rose by 11% yoy, contributing positively to GDP and corporate profit growth [2][17]. - The report highlights the significant role of intermediate goods in China's export structure, which accounted for about 50% of total exports in 2023 [20][26]. Summary by Sections I. Overseas Production Expansion - A Perspective of Intermediate Goods Trade - Intermediate goods exports surged post-2020, making up half of total exports in 2023, with double-digit annualized growth in semi-finished products and components [5][20]. - Key categories of intermediate goods include telecommunications equipment, electronic components, textiles, steel, batteries, and auto parts, which collectively represent over 70% of exports [5][22]. - The share of intermediate goods exports to Southeast Asia has increased significantly, while exports to the US have contracted since 2018 [22][34]. II. Progress in Overseas Plant Construction - A Perspective of Raw Material and Machinery Exports - Southeast Asia remains the primary destination for China's construction machinery exports, with notable growth in exports to Brazil and Mexico in 2024 [7][55]. - China's steel exports have seen robust growth, particularly to Southeast Asia and the Middle East, with a significant increase in construction machinery exports reflecting overseas investment [51][58]. - The report notes a rebound in the export volume of construction machinery, indicating a fresh round of overseas expansion by Chinese enterprises [53][56]. III. ASEAN and Latin America as Destinations for Overseas Expansion - In 2023, China's overseas direct investment (ODI) achieved structural growth, with ASEAN and Latin America receiving the most investment, accounting for 28% and 25% of ODI, respectively [9][75]. - The report emphasizes the increasing trend of Chinese investment in the Middle East and Africa, alongside a decline in investment in the US and Europe [75][77]. - The Belt and Road Initiative is expected to enhance cooperation between China and countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, further supporting overseas expansion [75][76].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry, but it discusses various trends and performance metrics that could influence investment decisions. Core Insights - China's year-on-year export growth in USD terms decreased from 8.6% in June to 7% in July 2024, falling below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 9.5% [1] - Year-on-year import growth in USD terms increased from -2.3% in June to 7.2%, surpassing the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 3.2% [1] - The trade surplus in July was USD 84.7 billion, down from USD 99.0 billion in June, but up by approximately USD 5.3 billion year-on-year [1][23] Summary by Sections Macro Views - The global manufacturing cycle has shown signs of marginal weakening, with the manufacturing PMI across developed countries falling below the 50 boom-bust line [2] - A slowdown in US consumption is impacting China's exports of light industrial products and textiles, with actual consumer spending in the US increasing by only 0.2% month-on-month in June [2] - The export price index has faced setbacks, with Brent crude oil prices falling by 5.7% in July [2] Export Performance - High-end manufacturing, particularly in automobiles, continues to show rapid export growth, supported by a buoyant business climate for industrial chains [3] - In July 2024, year-on-year growth in exports of mechanical and electrical products was strong at 10%, contributing 5.8 percentage points to overall export growth [4][17] - Exports of light industry and textiles fell by 2.4%, attributed to a slowdown in US consumer demand [4] Import Performance - Year-on-year import growth in USD terms increased to 7.2%, driven by a low base effect from July 2023 and strong demand in the electronics sector [7] - Notable increases in import growth were seen in energy products, with coal imports rising by 20.8 percentage points to 17.4% year-on-year [7] Regional Export Trends - Exports to developed countries, including the US and EU, showed growth, with year-on-year increases of 8.1% and 8.0% respectively [6] - Exports to developing countries, particularly in ASEAN and Latin America, have shown signs of slowing momentum [6] Future Outlook - The report anticipates potential disruptions to China's exports due to slowing overseas demand and uncertainties surrounding the upcoming US elections [8] - The sustainability of import growth remains uncertain, with the manufacturing PMI in China edging down to 49.4 in July [8]

Equity Research Report Strategy Midstream Capital/Traded Goods, New Infrastructure Outperformed Huatai Research 13 August 2024 | China (Mainland) Monthly Midstream capital/traded goods, new infrastructure outperformed According to our model, in July 2024, the business climate of all sectors and all non-financial sectors in the A-share market picked up slightly, while some still saw increased sales volume but decreased selling prices, with demand yet to improve, consistent with China's July PMI data. Specifi ...

CSC Research Daily Highlights August 13, 2024 Research Department China Securities Co., Ltd This compilation is an abndged translation of the corresponding Chinese reports Please refer to the important statement on the last page Daily Highlights * This complation is distributed by China Securities Co., Ltd. in the People's Republic of China (for the purposes of this Report only, excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan), and subject to applicable laws and regulations, this compliation may be distributed by Chi ...

Global Investme GOAL: Asset Allocation Summertime Sadness; Neutral 3m and looking t August 2024 Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA Andrea Ferrario Global Strategist Global Strategist Goldman Sachs International Goldman Sachs International 44-20-7774-1714 chrisban musiler-gliss 44-20 7552-4353 androa.forrado@gs.se Investors should consider this report as only at single factor in making that investment decision. For Rog AC certification and other important disclosures; so or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html ...

9 August 2024 | 11:07AM HKT China: CPI inflation increased in July on higher food prices Bottom line: China's headline CPI inflation increased to +0.5% yoy in July from +0.2% yoy in June, while headline PPI inflation was flat at -0.8% yoy in July. Food price inflation rose across the board in July due to a decrease in supply from adverse weather. Both non-food price inflation and core inflation edged down in July, indicating continued weakness of domestic demand. PPI inflation in upstream sectors rose modes ...

Equity Research Report Strategy Market Dynamics Post Carry Trade Reversal Huatai Research 13 August 2024 | China (Mainland) Weekly Market to remain volatile in short run, with focus on high-low rotation Weak M1 data in yoy terms, low expectations for the long-term credit cycle, and foreign capital outflow due to election trading have rapidly driven up market risk premiums since June. Strengthened expectations for Fed rate cuts and RMB appreciation have unlocked room for domestic monetary policy, in our view ...

Investment Ratings - Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is rated Overweight with a price target (PT) of $340/share [5][19] - Target Corporation (TGT) is rated Neutral with a PT of $153/share [11][19] Core Insights - PANW shares have risen 12.4% year-to-date, performing in line with the S&P 500 index (+13% YTD) and the Nasdaq Composite index (+12% YTD) [5] - Despite a nearly 4% drop following billings weakness in F3Q'24 results, PANW is well-positioned for future growth due to better margin expansion and potential revenue recovery [5] - TGT shares have underperformed, falling almost 4% YTD, as the company faces challenges related to consumer discretionary spending and sales declines [10][11] Summary by Sections Palo Alto Networks (PANW) - The report recommends bullish investors to overlay positions with a September 13th $335/$360 strike 1x2 Call Spread Booster, indicating a 0.1% option premium against a reference price of $331.48 [5] - The implied move for PANW stands at almost 10%, which is above its 5-year (8.3%) and 10-year (8.0%) averages [3] - The valuation is based on a 31.7x EV/FCF multiple of CY24 estimates, implying a 29.6x multiple on CY25 FCF estimates, which is slightly discounted compared to peers [5] Target Corporation (TGT) - The report suggests bearish investors buy a September 13th $150/$132/$127 strike Collared Put Spread, paying a 0.2% option premium against a reference price of $135.50 [6] - TGT's implied move is almost 8%, in line with its medium-term average but above its longer-term history [10] - The team expects management to narrow down guidance for both comps and EPS, potentially leading to downward revisions and pressure on shares [11]

J.P.Morgan Asia Pacific Emerging Markets Research 12 August 2024 Korea: Customs exports rose in early August Customs exports during the first 10-days of August rose 16.7%oya, despite fewer trading days this month than a year ago. As a result, we estimate that the full-month exports should rise 21.4%oya in August vs. 13.9%oya actual growth in July. If seasonally adjusted, the first 10-day exports rebounded 5.5%m/m, sa after a 5.6% fall in July (although it is a noisy 10-day series, not the actual full month ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a potential for a larger than previously forecasted 25 basis point cut in September, with a likelihood of 40% to 50% [2]. Core Insights - The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has been cautious in starting an easing cycle despite diminishing local political and fiscal risks. Inflation risks are skewed to the upside, particularly due to foreign exchange pressures and services inflation [2][3]. - The near-term outlook for non-core inflation, especially transport inflation, has improved, which may lead to a reduction in headline inflation by 0.5 percentage points below the target in the next quarter [2]. - The SARB is expected to update its inflation risk assessment to a more balanced view at the next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, potentially revising down its inflation outlook by 0.2 percentage points in the near term [2][3]. Economic Data Summary - The report highlights various economic indicators, including: - July CPI for Romania at 5.0%, down from 5.2% in June [4]. - Current account data for Turkey showing a deficit of 0.3 billion USD in January, improving from a deficit of 1.2 billion USD [4]. - A strong rebound in GDP growth for Romania is expected, driven by retail sales data, with a forecast of 6.1% growth for Q2 [4]. - The report also provides forecasts for inflation and monetary policy changes across various countries, indicating a general trend towards easing in several emerging markets [6][10]. Foreign Exchange Outlook - The report presents forecasts for various currency pairs, including: - EUR/USD expected to be 1.09 in 2024, with a slight decrease to 1.05 in 2025 [8]. - USD/ZAR forecasted to decrease from 18.37 to 17.25 by 2025 [8]. - The report indicates a general trend of currency depreciation against the USD for several emerging market currencies [8].