宏 观 研 究 国 内 经 济 相关研究 《地产"落"，消费"升"—— "打破共识"系列之一》 2026/02/28 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 屠强 A0230521070002 tuqiang@swsresearch.com 研究支持 耿佩璇 A0230124080003 gengpx@swsresearch.com 联系人 ⚫ 二问：消费底层逻辑的"三重转变"？出行方式重构、信息传播升级、优质供给增多。 屠强 A0230521070002 tuqiang@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2026 年 03 月 03 日 "看多消费"的第二弹 ——"打破共识"系列之二 "疤痕效应"的快速退潮下，消费或正从量变向质变跃迁。理解宏观经济的演绎，"微观"视角或许 更具穿透力。哪些证据已在悄然验证这一趋势？本文分析，供参考。 ⚫ 一问：春节消费的三大"不寻常"？出行"人从众"、出游"银发"热、消费"适己化"。 不寻常一：出行"人从众"。2026 年春节假期长达 9 天、较 2025 年同期增加 1 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the competitive landscape of AI products following the 2026 Spring Festival, highlighting significant user growth and market shifts among leading AI applications [4][20]. Global Rankings - ChatGPT remains the top AI application globally with 955.6 million Monthly Active Users (MAU), showing a growth rate of 2.69% [34]. - Domestic AI application Doubao surged to second place with 315.31 million MAU, experiencing an impressive growth of 87.38% [34]. - Qianwen, another domestic AI product, climbed to third place with 202.69 million MAU, marking a staggering growth of 552.83% [34]. Domestic Rankings - The domestic AI landscape has been reshaped, with Doubao and Qianwen dominating the top two spots, followed by Quark, DeepSeek, and Tencent Yuanbao [12][13]. - Doubao's MAU growth is attributed to its integration into various Spring Festival activities, while Qianwen's growth is linked to substantial subsidies from Alibaba [13][20]. Overseas Rankings - DeepSeek leads the overseas market with 132.57 million MAU, showing stable growth of 2.26% [16]. - Dola, the overseas version of Doubao, ranks second with 59.98 million MAU, growing by 12.61% [17]. - Talkie AI has emerged as the fastest-growing overseas product with a 13.45% increase, reaching 26.27 million MAU [30]. Subscription Revenue Rankings - Gemini leads in subscription revenue with $17.87 million, followed by Claude with $43.41 million [33]. - The subscription revenue growth rates for these products indicate a strong market demand for premium AI services [33]. User Retention Concerns - The article raises questions about whether the user growth observed during the Spring Festival can be sustained in the long term, emphasizing the need for ongoing engagement strategies [20].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the Hong Kong stock market has been marked by significant increases in the stock prices of AI companies, particularly Zhipu and MiniMax, which have seen their market capitalizations soar dramatically within a short period [3][4][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - Zhipu's stock price has increased by over 500%, with its market capitalization briefly surpassing that of major companies like JD.com and Kuaishou [4]. - MiniMax's stock price has risen nearly 490%, reaching a market capitalization of approximately 300 billion HKD within weeks [4]. - As of March 3, 2026, Zhipu's market capitalization was 235.4 billion HKD, while MiniMax's was 257.5 billion HKD, indicating substantial growth from their initial public offering prices [10]. Group 2: Employee Ownership and Incentives - A high proportion of employees at these AI companies hold shares, with over 51% of Zhipu's employees being shareholders [9][16]. - MiniMax has a broad employee incentive program, with nearly all of its 385 full-time employees holding shares [10]. - The stock ownership structure has translated into significant wealth for employees, with average holdings valued at approximately 39 million RMB per employee [16]. Group 3: Investment Dynamics - Early employees who joined when Zhipu had only about 30 staff members have seen substantial wealth increases due to the company's rapid growth [12]. - The capital market's enthusiasm for AI companies has led to a rapid increase in valuations, with MiniMax achieving a market cap of over 300 billion HKD shortly after its IPO [14]. - The investment landscape for AI companies has accelerated, with many tech firms initiating IPO processes in a much shorter timeframe compared to previous generations [26]. Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The AI sector is experiencing a wave of wealth creation, with at least 53 new billionaires emerging from AI-related ventures in 2025 [25]. - The time from establishment to IPO for companies like MiniMax has been significantly compressed, allowing for quicker capital accumulation [25]. - The valuation of AI companies is heavily influenced by future potential rather than current profitability, as evidenced by Zhipu's substantial losses despite high revenue expectations [35]. Group 5: Challenges and Volatility - The high valuations of AI companies are based on speculative future earnings, leading to potential volatility in stock prices [40]. - Market corrections can occur rapidly, as seen when Zhipu's stock price dropped significantly following a public relations issue [40]. - The long-term sustainability of these valuations remains uncertain, especially as competition and technological advancements continue to evolve in the AI space [41].

Core Insights - Alibaba's AI assistant "Qianwen" has reached approximately 203 million monthly active users (MAU), making it the third-largest AI application globally, surpassing Google's Gemini with 114.95 million MAU [1][2]. Group 1: Market Position - Qianwen's MAU growth rate is an astonishing 552.83%, the highest in the world [2]. - The top three AI applications globally are ChatGPT (955.6 million MAU), Doubao (315.31 million MAU), and Qianwen [3]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The domestic AI market is establishing a "dual-hero" landscape with Doubao and Qianwen leading [3]. - The competition in AI applications is shifting from "pure dialogue" to "service closure," indicating a new phase in AI utility [3]. Group 3: User Engagement - During the Spring Festival, Qianwen's "invitation activity" attracted 130 million users, with over 200 million "one-click orders," indicating significant user engagement [3]. - The activity increased Qianwen's daily active users (DAU) from 7.07 million to 73.52 million, a growth rate nearing 940% [3]. Group 4: Strategic Integration - Qianwen successfully integrated into Alibaba's commercial ecosystem, showcasing its potential as a super entry point for various services [3].

烧钱80亿是流量虚火还是真金， 摩根士丹利在最新研报深度复盘2026年春节AI应用大混战， 据硬AI，2026年春节中国消费级AI赛道迎来了史上第一场大规模补贴驱动的用户争夺战。阿里巴巴（通义千问/Qwen）、字节跳动（豆包/Doubao）、腾讯 （元宝/Yuanbao）、百度（文心/Ernie）四大巨头集体下场，以现金红包、消费券、春晚冠名等方式砸钱抢用户。摩根士丹利估算， 各平台合计促销支出很可 能超过80亿元人民币 ，涵盖现金红包、每单补贴、生态流量导入及媒体曝光等多个维度。 然而，流量盛宴之后，各家的成色大相径庭。摩根士丹利基于Questmobile数据，从 流量规模、用户参与度、活动后留存 三个维度对各平台进行了系统性评 估。结论清晰而残酷： 短期DAU爆发人人有份，但真正能留住用户的，只有豆包和通义千问 ；而长期胜负的关键，在于产品实用性、生态整合能力和超越金 钱激励的真实价值创造。 大摩认为，这场春节大战本质上是一场"超级入口"的卡位战。谁能在补贴退潮后守住用户基本盘，谁就在下一阶段的AI商业化竞争中占据先机。从目前数据 看，字节跳动的豆包和阿里巴巴的通义千问表现相对突出，腾讯元宝的留存表现令人 ...

梦晨 发自 凹非寺 量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI 通讯作者为清华AIR副研究员周浩，共同一作Weinan Dai，Hanlin Wu。 GPU内核优化，强化学习上场了 GPU内核优化门槛一直很高，要求开发者对GPU硬件架构、内存层次、线程调度有深入理解。 同时，模型训练和推理的速度，很大程度上取决于底层CUDA内核写得好不好。 现有的AI辅助方案大体分两类： 一类是无训练的迭代优化，依靠提示词引导模型反复修改代码； 让AI自己写高性能GPU代码，字节Seed与清华AIR团队做到了。 最新开源 CUDA Agent ，在GPU内核优化基准KernelBench上拿下当前最优成绩： Level-1和Level-2的faster rate（相对torch.compile的加速通过率）双双达到100%，最难的Level-3同样达到90%。 并且全面超越单用大模型的方案。 第三部加入反作弊检查，排除那些对不同输入产生常数输出或无法区分输出的任务。 eager运行时间被控制在1毫秒到100毫秒的范围内，与KernelBench高度相似的样本也被移除以降低数据污染风险。 经过层层筛选，最终留下6000个训练样本，命名为 ...

机器之心编辑部 近日，来自 字节跳动 Seed 团队和清华大 学 AIR 的新研究 CUDA Agent ，在 AI 领域引发了不小的轰动。 研究人员训练了一个能够编写快速 CUDA 内核的模型：不只是正确的内核，而是真正经过优化的内核。 在简单/中等内核上，它的性能比 torch.compile 高出 2 倍 ；在复杂内核上，它的性能比 torch.compile 高出约 92% ；即使在最难的设置下，它的性能也比 Claude Opus 4.5 和 Gemini 3 Pro 高出约 40% 。 针对这一矛盾，CUDA Agent 的核心理念简单而巧妙：CUDA 性能并非取决于正确性，而是取决于硬件。线程束、内存带宽、内存冲突——这些只有在性能分析器 中才能看到的东西。 研究人员不再奖励「是否编译成功」，而是奖励实际的GPU速度。真实的性能分析数据。强化学习直接基于性能进行训练。 在此之前，GPT、Claude 等大模型已经能写出「正确」的 CUDA 代码，AI 生成的代码也已获得了一定程度的应用，但能跑通和跑得快完全是两码事。 GPU 内核优化是现代深度学习的基础，但它仍然是一项高度专业化的工作，需要深厚 ...

大摩闭门会：全球 AI 与中国两会的新看点 260302_原文 2026 年 03 月 02 日 12:50 发言人 00:05 543。各位投资者朋友大家上午好，欢迎来到大摩宏观策略城，我是新泽强 Robin。马年开年这是第二期 了，但是开年以来，全球的宏观形势一波未平一波又起。上一期我们刚讲到了一些关税等等，风起大漠， 那这个周末美国对伊朗的军事行动，导致了全球的地缘政治的博弈形式升级。而且最近一个多月，对于 AI 对全球各个行业的影响造就的长期的博弈也有很大的变化。国内的政策方面，这个礼拜会召开两会，作为 十五规划开局的两会，也会定下很多产业政策、科技政策的基调。所以这一期我们会围绕着地缘政治的冲 击，中国的两会的前瞻，以及全球 AI 叙事变化带来的一些投资机会这三个主题和我们的首席策略是 loa。 我们的经济学家郑宁，建立科技硬件方面的亚洲科技策略师和存储行业的分析师刘端，和硬件分析师安迪 一起来分析相关的主题。 发言人 01:20 首先我抛砖引玉，从地缘政治的冲击讲起。我想美伊的军事行动，这是当下大家最关注的焦点。当然是关 注这次冲突对全球原油市场和风险偏好的影响。现在看起来对原油市场的影响是一次对 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月02日 2026年03月03日 互联网行业 2026 年 3 月投资策略 优于大市 观察 Agent 对互联网生态流量和用户的影响，优选领先大模型厂商和算力供应 链 核心观点 行业研究·行业投资策略 互联网 2 月行情回顾：2 月恒生科技指数单月下跌 10.15%。同期，纳斯达克互 联网指数 2 月录得下跌，单月跌幅为 7.87%。个股方面，互联网多数股 票股价表现一致下跌，港股方面，京东集团、京东健康、阅文集团为本 月表现前三的股票，单月涨幅为-7.1%、-10.3%、-11.7%。其中京东集 团跑赢恒生科技指数 3.05pct，京东健康、阅文集团分别跑输恒生科技 指数 0.65pct、1.55pct。美股方面，拼多多、唯品会、微博为本月表现 前三的股票，单月涨幅为 2.7%、1.8%、-6.1%，跑赢纳斯达克指数 6.08pct、 5.18pct、-2.72pct。从市盈率看，恒生科技指数估值略有下降：截至 2026 年 2 月 27 日，恒生科技指数 PE-TTM 为 21.20x，处于恒生科技指 数成立以来 17.18%分位点。 人工智能动态：1）谷歌：推出 AI 购 ...

证券研究报告 汽车 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 02 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 李泽 SAC：S1350525030001 lize@huayuanstock.com 陈佳敏 SAC：S1350525110001 chenjiamin@huayuanstock.com ——汽车行业周报（20260224-20260301） 证券分析师 投资要点： 投资分析意见：我们认为随着全球 AI 资本开支扩张，柴发环节有望直接受益 AIDC 建设需求提升，国产供应链在柴发供不应求的背景下有望实现量价齐升，建议关注： 1）OEM：潍柴重机、苏美达、科泰电源、泰豪科技等；2）发动机：潍柴动力、玉 柴国际、动力新科等；3）核心零部件：银轮股份、天润工业、长源东谷、中原内配、 威孚高科、渤海汽车、三联锻造、艾可蓝等。 风险提示：1）AI 行业进展低于预期；2）技术迭代风险；3）行业竞争加剧；4）市 场需求测算偏差风险等。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 柴油发电机组是数据中心关键电源之一。数据中心供电系统通常由"电网+UPS+ 柴油发电机组"组成，柴发用作后备电源，一旦市电失电 ...