Key Takeaways Cenovus shares jumped 59.6% in a year, topping Phillips 66's 19.2% surge.CVE faces pressure as WTI nears $65 and weaker WCS pricing squeezes the upstream cash flow.PSX benefits from diversified refining, midstream and chemicals, with steadier estimates.In the energy sector, Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE) and Phillips 66 (PSX) represent two distinctly different operating models. Over the past year, Cenovus shares have soared 59.6%, comfortably outpacing Phillips 66’s 19.2% gain. However, superior st ...

CALGARY, Alberta, Feb. 26, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX: CVE) (NYSE: CVE) today announced it will exercise its right to redeem its 2.577% Series 1 Preferred Shares (the “Series 1 Preferred Shares”) and its 3.948% Series 2 Preferred Shares (the “Series 2 Preferred Shares”, collectively, the “Series 1 & 2 Preferred Shares”) on March 31, 2026 (the “Redemption”). All of the Series 1 & 2 Preferred Shares outstanding will be redeemed at the price of $25.00 per share, for an aggregate amount p ...

Core Insights - Cenovus Energy Inc. reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of 36 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 28 cents, and a significant increase from 5 cents in the same quarter last year [1] - Total quarterly revenues were $7.8 billion, which fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9.7 billion and decreased from $8.4 billion year-over-year [1] Operational Performance - The Oil Sands unit's operating margin was C$2.23 billion, down from C$2.34 billion a year ago, with daily oil sands production reaching 724.3 thousand barrels per day, a 15.6% increase year-over-year [3] - The Conventional unit's operating margin increased to C$159 million from C$88 million year-over-year, with daily conventional production at 26.2 thousand barrels compared to 24.5 thousand barrels a year ago [4] - The Offshore segment generated an operating margin of C$244 million, slightly up from C$242 million in the previous year, with daily offshore liquid production at 24 thousand barrels, higher than 19.5 thousand barrels a year ago [5] - Total upstream production for the quarter was 917.9 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, compared to 816 thousand barrels in the same quarter last year [5] Downstream Performance - The Canadian Refining unit's operating margin improved to C$68 million from C$47 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, processing 112.9 thousand barrels of crude oil per day [6] - The U.S. Refining unit reported an operating margin of C$81 million, a recovery from a negative operating margin of C$443 million in the prior-year quarter, with crude oil processed volumes totaling 352.6 thousand barrels per day [6] Expenses - Transportation and blending expenses rose to C$2.66 billion from C$2.61 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024 [7] - Expenses for purchased products decreased to C$4.1 billion from $6.3 billion in the prior-year quarter [7] Capital Investment & Balance Sheet - Cenovus made total capital investments of C$1.36 billion in the quarter, with cash and cash equivalents of C$2.7 billion and long-term debt of C$11 billion as of December 31, 2025 [9] Guidance - Cenovus provided guidance for 2026, projecting total upstream production between 945-985 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day and U.S. downstream throughput of 430-450 thousand barrels per day, with anticipated capital expenditure ranging from $5 billion to $5.3 billion [10]

Core Viewpoint - Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE) is nearing its 52-week high of $23.24, closing at $23.13, driven by strong operational performance and capital allocation strategies [1][2] Performance Summary - Over the past 12 months, CVE shares have increased by 58.5%, outperforming the industry average of 42.9% and competitors like Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) at 41.8% and Suncor Energy (SU) at 43.8% [3][4] - The company's consistent earnings results and scalable oil sands resource base have contributed to improved cash flow visibility and operational reliability [4][7] Valuation and Expectations - Current stock levels reflect elevated expectations and optimism, suggesting that much of the positive news is already priced in, leading to concerns about overvaluation [8] - At a WTI price of $50, Cenovus can fund capital expenditures and dividends, but at $45, cash flow would only cover sustaining capital and base dividends [9][10] Oil Price Sensitivity - Cenovus's financial plan for 2026 assumes a mid-cycle oil price environment, with significant sensitivity to oil price fluctuations; every $1 change in WTI impacts adjusted funds flow by approximately C$220 million [11][9] - The company’s production mix includes heavy oil, making it sensitive to the WTI-Western Canadian Select (WCS) differential, with each $1 change affecting adjusted funds flow by roughly C$75 million [16][9] Market Outlook - The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects WTI prices to decline to $53.42 in 2026 and $49.34 in 2027, which could pressure Cenovus's upstream margins [21][20] - Sustained weakness in WTI prices, particularly if differentials widen, could compress Cenovus's upstream netbacks, impacting earnings and cash flow despite stable production volumes [23][22] Conclusion - Cenovus's integrated model and scalable resource base provide resilience in favorable commodity conditions, but with the stock near its 52-week high, the risk/reward balance appears skewed to the downside due to pronounced oil price sensitivity [24][25]

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Core Viewpoint - Cenovus Energy reported a revenue decline of 7% year-over-year for Q4 2025, with a significant EPS surprise of +30.91% compared to analyst expectations [1]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the quarter was $7.81 billion, which was 19.2% below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9.66 billion [1]. - EPS for the quarter was $0.36, up from $0.05 in the same quarter last year, exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.28 [1]. Production Metrics - Total upstream production was 917.9 million barrels of oil equivalent, slightly below the average estimate of 920.65 million barrels [4]. - Conventional natural gas production was 860.4 million cubic feet, also below the average estimate of 870.78 million cubic feet [4]. - Daily production of NGLs was 27.90 MBbls, under the average estimate of 29.91 MBbls [4]. - Bitumen production was 696.20 MBbls, slightly above the average estimate of 691.76 MBbls [4]. - Total oil sands production from Foster Creek was 220.1 million barrels, exceeding the average estimate of 217.75 million barrels [4]. - Christina Lake production was 308.9 million barrels, just below the average estimate of 310.79 million barrels [4]. - Sunrise production was 60.3 million barrels, in line with the average estimate of 60 million barrels [4]. - Lloydminster Therma production was 106.9 million barrels, above the average estimate of 103.23 million barrels [4]. - Conventional heavy oil production from Lloydminster was 28.1 million barrels, slightly above the average estimate of 26.97 million barrels [4]. - Total oil sands production was 724.3 million barrels, compared to the average estimate of 718.73 million barrels [4]. - Heavy crude oil unit throughput in Canadian refining was 112.9 million barrels, exceeding the average estimate of 106.38 million barrels [4]. - U.S. refining crude oil unit throughput was 352.6 million barrels, above the average estimate of 339.36 million barrels [4]. Stock Performance - Cenovus shares returned +20.3% over the past month, contrasting with a -0.8% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [3]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell), indicating potential underperformance relative to the broader market [3].

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.25 points at 33,594.98.The April crude oil contract was up US$1.35 at US$66.40 per barrel.“Energy is the big sector today, that’s why the Canadian market is doing as well as it is,” said Pierre-Benoît Gauthier, vice-president of investment strategy at IG Wealth Management.U.S. President Donald Trump has been ratcheting up pressure on Iran, which is home to some of the world’s largest oil reserves, because of its disputed nuclear program. If a conflict were to break out ...

Exhibit 99.2 | CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME (LOSS) (UNAUDITED) | 3 | | --- | --- | | CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS (UNAUDITED) | 4 | | CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF EQUITY (UNAUDITED) | 5 | | CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS (UNAUDITED) | 6 | | NOTES TO THE INTERIM CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (UNAUDITED) | 7 | | 1. DESCRIPTION OF BUSINESS AND SEGMENTED DISCLOSURES | 7 | | 2. BASIS OF PREPARATION AND STATEMENT OF COMPLIANCE | 14 | | 3. MEG ENERGY CORP. ACQUISITION | 15 | | 4. FINANCE ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, Cenovus generated approximately CAD 2.8 billion of operating margin and CAD 2.7 billion of adjusted funds flow [20] - Operating margin in the upstream was over CAD 2.6 billion, consistent with the prior quarter, despite declining benchmark oil prices [20] - Oil sands non-fuel operating costs decreased to CAD 839 per barrel in Q4, over CAD 1.25 lower than the prior quarter [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Upstream production reached 834,000 BOE per day in 2025, a 3% increase from 2024, excluding the MEG Energy acquisition [8] - Q4 upstream production was 918,000 BOE per day, with oil sands production at 727,000 BOE per day, both records for the company [11] - Downstream operating margin was CAD 149 million in Q4, despite inventory holding losses and turnaround expenses [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Canadian refining business achieved a crude throughput of 113,000 barrels per day in Q4, with a utilization rate of about 105% [18] - U.S. refining delivered crude throughput of 353,000 barrels per day, approximately 97% utilization [18] - Adjusted market capture was around 95% in Q4, reflecting the ability to capitalize on market opportunities [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Cenovus aims to leverage synergies from the MEG Energy acquisition, targeting CAD 150 million of annual synergies in 2026 and 2027, and over CAD 400 million by the end of 2028 [13] - The company is focused on brownfield development and optimization rather than large-scale projects, with a capital spending ceiling close to CAD 5 billion [99] - Cenovus is actively evaluating egress options to mitigate exposure to WCS volatility, with a significant shift in the percentage of crude sold in Alberta [68][70] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate potential risks associated with WCS volatility, citing improved egress options and a strong balance sheet [66][70] - The company anticipates continued operational momentum into 2026 and beyond, supported by recent production records and successful project completions [11][12] - Management highlighted the importance of safety and operational excellence as foundational to the company's strategy [5][26] Other Important Information - Cenovus completed the acquisition of MEG Energy, adding over 100,000 barrels a day of production capacity [10] - The company sold its interest in the WRB Refining joint venture, gaining full operational control of its downstream business [10] - Cenovus recognized a current tax recovery of CAD 189 million in Q4, primarily due to the integration of MEG's business [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the next steps for the Mac asset acquired? - Management indicated that corporate synergies have been quickly realized, with a focus on operational improvements and a redevelopment program starting soon [33][34] Question: Can you elaborate on the solvent enhanced oil recovery techniques? - The Spruce Lake project involves injecting condensate along with steam to lower SOR and drive higher production, with a budget of CAD 250 million [42][43] Question: What drove the significant increase in U.S. market capture in Q4? - The increase was attributed to reliability improvements, market opportunities due to supply disruptions, and seasonal product mix advantages [52][54] Question: How does Cenovus plan to balance capital allocation between growth and shareholder returns? - The company plans to use 50% of free cash flow for deleveraging until net debt reaches CAD 6 billion, with the remaining 50% returned to shareholders [72][76]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, Cenovus generated approximately CAD 2.8 billion of operating margin and CAD 2.7 billion of adjusted funds flow, with upstream operating margin over CAD 2.6 billion, consistent with the prior quarter despite declining benchmark oil prices [20][21] - Oil sands non-fuel operating costs decreased to CAD 839 per barrel in Q4, over CAD 1.25 lower than the prior quarter due to higher production volumes and reduced maintenance activity [20] - Full-year capital spending reached CAD 4.9 billion, supporting sustaining activity and growth projects [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Upstream production in 2025 averaged 834,000 BOE per day, a 3% increase from 2024, excluding the MEG Energy acquisition [8] - In Q4, upstream production reached 918,000 BOE per day, with oil sands production at 727,000 BOE per day, both records for the company [11] - Downstream operating margin was CAD 149 million in Q4, despite inventory holding losses and turnaround expenses [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Canadian refining business achieved a crude throughput of 113,000 barrels per day in Q4, with a utilization rate of about 105% [18] - U.S. refining delivered crude throughput of 353,000 barrels per day, approximately 97% utilization [18] - Adjusted market capture was around 95% in Q4, reflecting the ability to capitalize on market opportunities [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Cenovus aims to leverage synergies from the MEG Energy acquisition, targeting CAD 150 million in annual synergies in 2026 and 2027, and over CAD 400 million by the end of 2028 [13] - The company is focused on operational excellence and cost reduction, with plans to increase production to over 70,000 barrels per day at Sunrise by 2028 [15] - Cenovus is committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet while pursuing growth opportunities, with a focus on brownfield development and debottlenecking projects [97] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate potential volatility in WCS pricing, highlighting improved egress options and a strong balance sheet [66][69] - The company anticipates continued operational momentum into 2026, supported by recent production records and successful project completions [11][12] - Management emphasized the importance of safety and operational reliability as core values driving the company's performance [5] Other Important Information - Cenovus completed the acquisition of MEG Energy, adding over 100,000 barrels a day of production capacity and enhancing its heavy oil portfolio [10] - The company divested its interest in the WRB Refining joint venture, gaining full operational control of its downstream business [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the next steps for the MEG assets? - Management indicated that they have quickly moved to capture corporate synergies and are focusing on operational improvements and redevelopment programs [33][34] Question: Can you elaborate on the solvent enhanced oil recovery techniques? - Management confirmed the initiation of a solvent project at Spruce Lake North, which is expected to enhance production and recovery rates [42][43] Question: What drove the significant increase in U.S. market capture? - The increase was attributed to reliability improvements, market opportunities due to supply disruptions, and effective commercial optimization strategies [51][52] Question: How does Cenovus plan to balance capital allocation between growth and shareholder returns? - Management stated that 50% of free cash flow will be used for deleveraging until net debt reaches CAD 6 billion, with the remaining 50% returned to shareholders [72][75]