24 February 2026 | 9:55PM HKT Equity Research CHINA INDUSTRIAL TECH Cost inflation pressures 1Q26 margins; export-aligned names poised for better recovery ahead We revise our sector FY25-FY28E EPS by -27% to +4% and TP forecasts by -8% to +4% (-3% on average). Our changes primarily reflect the impact of raw material cost trends, partially offset by delayed pricing pass-through to customers and those with a higher sales mix from developed markets (DM). Specifically, we have cut 1-2Q26E EPS by up to -18% for ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Robotics and Physical AI Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the **industrial robotics industry**, highlighting a significant shift in adoption since 2020, referred to as a **Robot Renaissance** [1][16]. - The industry is experiencing a new phase driven by advancements in **AI**, which is expected to elevate the **compound annual growth rate (CAGR)** to the low-teens and significantly increase the **total addressable market (TAM)** [1]. Key Points and Arguments - The original Robot Renaissance transitioned from **pre-programmed, fixed paths** to **real-time flexible path planning**, enabling applications like **machine tending, palletizing, and smart welding** [2][6]. - The next phase will focus on **complex task planning**, allowing robots to perform tasks requiring higher cognitive functions, such as **long-sequence, high dexterity tasks** and **collaborations between machines and humans** [2][6]. - Without these advancements, growth in the industrial robot sector would likely slow to single digits. The forecast predicts a **10-year CAGR of 12%**, sustaining beyond the next decade [2][11]. - There is a notable variance in **robot penetration** across different industries, indicating significant growth potential as enhanced flexibility in robots narrows this gap [2][6]. Technological Insights - **Physical AI** is identified as the enabling technology for the new Robot Renaissance, comprising a multi-layer AI ecosystem that includes: 1. **Robots and their digital twins** 2. **Task/path planning software** powered by multimodal AI 3. **Sensors** for collecting physical data 4. **Digital representations of environments** for simulating interactions [3][30]. - The demand for **sensors**, both vision and non-vision, is expected to rise significantly to support advanced robotic functions [4][38]. Industry Players and Collaborations - Key beneficiaries of the trends in physical AI include **FANUC, Keyence, and Mech-Mind** [5][35]. - Leading robot manufacturers like **FANUC** are expanding into the **brain layer** of physical AI and seeking collaborations, as evidenced by their recent partnerships with **NVIDIA** and the adoption of **ROS2** [4][38]. Investment Implications - The report recommends an **Outperform** rating for companies such as **FANUC, Keyence, Inovance, Cognex, Hikvision, and Harmonic Drive**, while suggesting a **Market Perform** rating for **Estun** [51]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes that while **Physical AI** expands robot capabilities, it does not disrupt existing robot manufacturers, as the core motion control algorithms remain essential [4][38]. - The distinction between the **"brain"** and **"world"** models is crucial, with different players serving each layer, which is often misunderstood [4][38]. - The report highlights the importance of **sensor technology** in enhancing robotic task planning and building the digital environment models [4][38]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and implications from the conference call regarding the industrial robotics sector and the transformative role of physical AI.

Summary of the Conference Call on Robotics and Physical AI Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the **industrial robotics industry**, highlighting a significant shift in adoption since 2020, referred to as a **Robot Renaissance** [1][16]. - The industry is experiencing a new phase driven by advancements in **AI**, which is expected to elevate the **CAGR** (Compound Annual Growth Rate) to the low-teens and significantly increase the long-term **TAM** (Total Addressable Market) [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Evolution of Robotics - The original Robot Renaissance involved a transition from **pre-programmed, fixed paths** to **real-time flexible path planning**, enabling applications like machine tending, palletizing, and smart welding [2][6]. - The next phase focuses on **complex task planning**, allowing for high dexterity tasks and deeper collaborations between machines and humans [2][6]. - Without these advancements, growth in the industrial robot sector would likely slow to single digits; however, the forecasted ten-year CAGR is expected to accelerate to **12%** [2][11]. Role of Physical AI - **Physical AI** is described as a multi-layer AI ecosystem that enhances robot capabilities without disrupting existing robot manufacturers [3][4]. - The ecosystem includes: 1. Robots and their **digital twins** 2. **Task/path planning software** powered by multimodal AI 3. **Sensors** for collecting physical data 4. A **digital representation** of the environment for simulating interactions [3][30]. Market Dynamics - Demand for **sensors**, both vision and non-vision, is expected to rise significantly, supporting advanced robotic task planning and the development of "world models" [4][38]. - Leading companies like **FANUC** are expanding into the "brain" layer of Physical AI while seeking collaborations in both the "brain" and "world" layers [4][38]. Key Beneficiaries - Major beneficiaries of the trends in industrial robotics include **FANUC**, **Keyence**, and **Mech-Mind** (the latter being a private company) [5][35]. - The report recommends an **Outperform** rating for FANUC, Keyence, Inovance, Cognex, Hikvision, and Harmonic Drive, while suggesting a **Market Perform** rating for Estun [51]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the **variance in robot penetration** across different industries, indicating significant growth potential in sectors with low automation adoption rates [2][19]. - The integration of **NVIDIA's technology** with FANUC's systems is highlighted as a strategic move to enhance simulation capabilities in production environments [49]. Conclusion - The industrial robotics sector is poised for substantial growth driven by advancements in Physical AI and complex task planning, with key players positioned to benefit from these trends. The forecasted CAGR of **12%** over the next decade reflects the optimistic outlook for the industry [2][11].

Summary of Conference Call on China Industrials Industry Overview - **Sector**: China Industrials - **Outlook**: Bullish on China Industrials driven by AI theme tailwinds, high-end equipment localization, and overseas expansion [1][6] Key Insights Automation and General Machinery - **Growth Forecast**: Expected sequential growth recovery for the automation market in 2026-27 at +3-4% year-on-year [2] - **Drivers**: 1. Replacement demand due to rapid technology iteration 2. New capex demand from AI applications (e.g., intelligent robots, PCB equipment, AI wearables) 3. Enhanced competitiveness of advanced equipment manufacturers globally - **Preferred Stocks**: Inovance for localization story; Geekplus for AMR/robotics solutions in warehouses [2] Intelligent/Humanoid Robots - **Adoption Trend**: Gradual ramp-up in adoption expected, benefiting suppliers and integrators [3] - **Preferred Stocks**: Leaderdrive, Hengli, Inovance, Shuanghuan for mass production advantages despite humanoid products still in development [3] Heavy Industry 1. **Construction Machinery**: Entering an improvement cycle with domestic recovery and overseas demand; preferred stocks include Sany Heavy and Jiangsu Hengli [4] 2. **Heavy-Duty Truck Sales**: Expected ~10% year-on-year decline in 2026 to ~1 million units, impacted by domestic market conditions (-15% year-on-year) and NEV purchase tax hike [4] 3. **Railway Equipment**: Anticipated slowdown in MU tenders to <200 sets, leading to slower net profit growth for CRRC and Times Electric [4] New Energy Equipment - **Demand Forecast**: Lithium-ion battery (LiB) equipment demand projected to increase by 24% in 2026 and 21% in 2027, reaching historical cyclical highs [5] - **Preferred Stock**: Wuxi Lead - **Outlook for Solar Equipment**: Negative outlook for 2026 due to lack of solar capacity turnaround; non-solar order growth and potential new capacity from space solar already priced in [5] Stock Ratings and Price Targets - **Overweight Stocks**: Geekplus, Sany Heavy, Leaderdrive, Han's Laser, Inovance, Hengli, Wuxi Lead, Envicool, among others [11] - **Price Target Changes**: - Times Electric: Target reduced from HKD 44.0 to 41.1 (-5%) - CRRC-H: Target reduced from HKD 6.4 to 6.1 (-17%) - Leaderdrive: Target increased from CNY 153.0 to 216.4 (+24%) [10] Additional Insights - **Market Cap and Trading Volume**: Various companies listed with significant market caps and average daily trading volumes, indicating active trading interest [11] - **Analyst Ratings**: Majority of stocks rated as Buy/Overweight, indicating positive sentiment among analysts [10][11] Conclusion - The China Industrials sector is poised for growth, particularly in automation, heavy machinery, and new energy equipment, with specific companies highlighted as key investment opportunities. The overall sentiment remains optimistic, supported by technological advancements and market recovery trends.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Industrial Sector**, highlighting various indicators and trends in manufacturing, automation, and related industries. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Manufacturing Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: - Manufacturing FAI remained negative for the fourth consecutive month, recording a decline of **-6.9% year-over-year (yoy)** in October, worsening from **-1.8% yoy** in September [3][53] - Chemical FAI was at **-7.9% yoy** (compared to **-5.6% yoy** in September) and steel FAI at **-2.0% yoy** (improved from **-3.3% yoy** in August) [3][28] 2. **Production Trends**: - Machine tool production increased by **+6% yoy** but declined **-13% month-over-month (mom)**, while industrial robot production rose by **+18% yoy** but fell **-24% mom** [3][43] - Key equipment exports showed mixed trends, with machine tools export value accelerating to **+31% yoy** [4] 3. **Order Growth in Automation Companies**: - Orders for automation companies moderated, with Inovance's IA orders growing **+13% yoy** (down from **+33% yoy** in September) [4][15] - Yiheda's orders slowed to about **+10% yoy** in October from **+20% yoy** in September [4][19] 4. **Positive Developments in AIDC Capex and Energy Storage Systems (ESS)**: - AIDC capital expenditure and ESS showed growth, with expectations of **40%-50% global ESS industry installation growth in 2026** despite uncertainties in the US market [8] 5. **Macro Indicators**: - China's manufacturing PMI decreased to **49.0** in October from **49.8** in September, indicating contraction [49] - Headline CPI inflation edged up to **+0.2% yoy** in October, while PPI inflation was **-2.1% yoy** [51] 6. **Capex Financing**: - Capex financing surged **+92% yoy** in October, recovering from a weak **+19% yoy** in September [66] 7. **Profitability Metrics**: - The profit before tax (PBT) margin for industrial enterprises with revenue over **Rmb20 million** was **5.4%** in Q3 2025, slightly down from **5.5%** in Q2 2025 [72] 8. **Electricity and Production Metrics**: - October electricity generation increased by **+9.5% yoy**, while cement production fell **-15.8% yoy** [82][84] - Steel production also declined by **-7.9% yoy** in October [88] Additional Important Insights - The report indicates a general slowdown in various sectors, particularly in manufacturing and automation, with some exceptions in specific areas like AIDC and ESS. - The mixed signals in export trends and order growth suggest a cautious outlook for the industrial sector moving forward. - The increase in capex financing may indicate a potential rebound in investment, but the overall economic environment remains challenging. This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the China industrial sector.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **China Industrial Sector**, focusing on manufacturing and industrial automation trends, particularly in **machine tools**, **industrial robots**, and **automation companies** like **Inovance**, **HCFA**, **Supcon**, and **Baosight** [3][7][11]. Key Insights and Data 1. **Manufacturing Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) Trends**: - Manufacturing FAI remained negative year-over-year (YoY) for the third consecutive month at **-1.8%** in September, slightly improving from **-2.0%** in August [3][49]. - Chemical FAI was reported at **-5.6%** YoY for the first nine months of 2025, worsening from **-5.2%** in August [22]. - Steel FAI showed a slight improvement at **-3.3%** YoY for the first eight months, compared to **-4.1%** in July [24]. 2. **Equipment Exports**: - Key equipment exports exhibited mixed trends: - Machine tools saw a significant acceleration with a value increase of **+31%** YoY and volume increase of **+3%** YoY, compared to **+19%** and **-20%** YoY in August [32]. - Laser processing equipment improved to **+17%** YoY, up from **+12%** in July [34]. - PIMM export value decreased by **-3%** YoY, while volume increased by **+10%** YoY, contrasting with previous months [27]. 3. **Production Metrics**: - Machine tool production increased by **+18%** YoY and **+14%** month-over-month (MoM) in September, surpassing the five-year average of **+15%** MoM [38]. - Industrial robot production surged by **+28%** YoY and **+20%** MoM, significantly higher than the five-year average of **+1%** MoM [39]. 4. **Order Trends for Coverage Companies**: - Orders for coverage companies improved significantly in September: - Inovance's industrial automation orders rose to **+33%** YoY, up from **+20-30%** YoY in August, driven by growth in logistics, semiconductors, and other sectors [11][13]. - HCFA's orders increased by **+67%** YoY, compared to approximately **30%** YoY in August, attributed to strong demand in traditional industrial automation and lithium battery sectors [15]. - Yiheda's orders grew by **+3%** YoY, down from **+10%** YoY in August, indicating a slower growth rate [18]. 5. **Macro Economic Indicators**: - China's manufacturing PMI improved to **49.8** in September from **49.4** in August, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [45]. - Headline CPI inflation edged up to **-0.3%** YoY in September, while PPI inflation was reported at **-2.3%** YoY [47]. 6. **Public Equity Financing**: - There was a notable **+162%** YoY increase in public equity financing to the manufacturing sector in the third quarter of 2025, suggesting a positive outlook for capital availability [63]. Additional Insights - The stronger performance of coverage companies' orders compared to macro data may be attributed to their focus on factory/discrete automation rather than process automation, alongside potential benefits from export opportunities [7]. - The report highlights a strong pick-up in public equity financing to the manufacturing sector, which could be a contributing factor to the improved performance of coverage companies [7]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the China industrial sector and its key players.

Summary of the Conference Call on China Industrials Industry Overview - The report focuses on the automation operations within the Chinese industrial sector, highlighting the strong momentum of domestic players compared to foreign competitors [1][5]. Key Points Sales Performance - In September 2025, four global players (Yaskawa, Panasonic, Delta Electronics, and ABB) experienced a decline in sales of servos and low-voltage AC drives in China, with sales down by -5% and -3% respectively, contrasting with positive growth of +4% and -2% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2025 [2][7]. Domestic Players' Orders - Inovance (300124.SZ) reported a significant increase in automation orders, up over 30% year-on-year in September, compared to 20-30% in August. Key markets driving this growth include batteries, logistics, semiconductors, wind power, construction machinery, and machine tools [3][10]. - Wuxi Xinjie (603416.SS) also saw orders grow by over 20% year-on-year in September, maintaining the same growth rate as August [3]. - Tsugami China (1651.HK) reported a solid order volume growth of 33% year-on-year in September, down from 42% in August [3]. General Equipment Orders - Haitian International (1882.HK) experienced a recovery in orders, with low teens year-on-year growth in September, compared to a low single-digit decline in August. Domestic orders showed strong growth while overseas orders increased by high single digits [4]. - Guomao (603915.SS) also reported similar trends with teens growth in orders [4]. Market Demand Insights - The overall demand in the automation sector remains robust, particularly in logistics, battery production, machine tools, electronics, and semiconductors. The PMI index increased to 49.8 in September from 49.4 in August, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing activity [10]. Investment Recommendations - The report favors Inovance as a leading automation player due to its market share gains and strong drivers in the electric vehicle (EV) powertrain sector, as well as potential in humanoid robotics [10]. Valuation and Risks - The price target for Inovance is set at RMB 95, based on a 35x P/E ratio for its core business and a 5x P/S ratio for its humanoid business [11]. - Upside risks include stronger-than-expected macroeconomic conditions boosting demand for automation products and higher sales of ePVs equipped with Inovance's EV control systems [12]. - Downside risks involve failure to develop high-end automation products and potential gross margin declines due to rising raw material costs [13]. Conclusion - The Chinese industrial automation sector is showing strong domestic growth, particularly among local players, while foreign competitors are facing challenges. The outlook remains positive, with specific recommendations for investment in leading companies like Inovance.

Summary of CIIF 2025 Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Factory Automation in Japan - **Event**: China International Industry Fair (CIIF) 2025 held in Shanghai from September 23-27, 2025 - **Participants**: Included Japanese companies such as SMC, Misumi Group, Yaskawa Electric, Nabtesco, Mitsubishi Electric, NSK, Amada, and Greater China companies like Inovance, Airtac, Hiwin [2][6] Key Points Demand Environment - **Current Demand**: Demand remains steady, particularly in semiconductor and battery-related sectors, as well as medical-related businesses [3][11] - **Capex Recovery**: Capital expenditure-related demand has shown a steady recovery from low levels in the first half of the year, but no further recovery is expected in the latter half [3][4] - **General Outlook**: Most industry participants believe that current demand levels will hold steady without significant changes [3][4] Competitive Landscape - **Competition Intensity**: The competitive environment remains harsh, especially in middle- and low-end markets, with many companies struggling due to intensified competition [4][5] - **High-End Market Stability**: Conditions in high-end markets are largely unchanged, although local parts are increasingly adopted due to Chinese government onshoring policies [4][5] - **Company-Specific Insights**: - **Omron, Yaskawa Electric, SMC**: Facing stiff local competition and struggling somewhat [5] - **Fanuc and Nabtesco**: Competitive conditions appear stable due to strong product technologies [5] - **Misumi Group**: Has improved competitiveness through successful economy product launches and innovative products tailored for the Chinese market [5] Company Strategies - **Mitsubishi Electric**: Launched a second brand (Lingling) for the Chinese market, focusing on local development and manufacturing to reduce costs [9] - **Omron**: Plans to introduce new products tailored to the Chinese market, though these are not yet released [9] - **Yaskawa Electric**: Continues to focus on high-end markets and value-added products, avoiding low- and medium-end markets due to competition [12] - **Amada**: Reduced its Chinese business significantly over the past decade but sees future opportunities due to local manufacturers shifting to overseas production [13] - **NSK**: Focused on high-end applications with no significant changes in competitive environment [14] Additional Insights - **SMC's Focus**: Plans to concentrate on high-growth potential areas like semiconductors and medical equipment, despite tough competition in midrange markets [10] - **Misumi Group's Innovations**: Showcased new products including a small SCARA robot and AI agent for customer inquiries, with steady demand in semiconductor and medical sectors [11] Conclusion The factory automation industry in Japan is currently experiencing stable demand, particularly in high-tech sectors. However, competition remains fierce, especially in lower-end markets. Companies are adapting their strategies to enhance competitiveness and cater to local market needs, with a focus on innovation and local production.

Summary of Humanoid Robot Insights and Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **humanoid robot industry** in China, highlighting recent technological advancements and market trends that may influence investor sentiment and stock performance [2][4]. Key Technological Developments - **Dexterous Hands**: Tesla's CEO Elon Musk announced the finalization of the design for Optimus Gen 3, emphasizing the importance of dexterous hands in humanoid robots, which could significantly impact component producers and OEMs [2][4]. - **Linear Actuators and Roller Screws**: Increased adoption of linear actuators by Chinese companies is anticipated due to their superior functionality compared to rotary actuators, benefiting producers in this segment [2][4]. - **Brain AI Chips**: Several Chinese humanoid robot OEMs are preparing to utilize NVIDIA's Jetson Thor, which offers enhanced processing capabilities, potentially improving robot intelligence [2][4]. Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - **Divergence in Investment Interests**: Global investors show varied interests in humanoid robotics, with EU investors still learning about the sector, US clients favoring companies with existing AI revenue, and Asian investors preferring high-quality firms with humanoid options [3][4]. - **Accelerating Orders**: In China, humanoid robot orders have surged, totaling approximately **Rmb 500 million** YTD, with UBTECH, Unitree, and AGIBot capturing over **80%** of these orders [4][5]. Company-Specific Insights - **UBTECH**: Received significant orders worth **Rmb 90 million** and **Rmb 250 million** in Q3, primarily from the auto industry [4][5]. - **Tesla**: Proposed new CEO incentive targets, including the delivery of **one million** bots within ten years, which is seen as a more achievable goal compared to previous guidance [4][5]. - **Upcoming Events**: Anticipated events include Tesla's shareholder meeting and updates on Optimus Gen 3, which could further influence market sentiment [4][5]. Stock Performance and Recommendations - The humanoid index has begun to outperform the A-share machinery index since late July, with expectations for stronger sentiment in Q425 due to upcoming catalysts [5][9]. - Preferred investments include key component suppliers such as **Hengli Hydraulic**, **Tuopu**, **Sanhua**, **Horizon Robotics**, and **Inovance**, which are expected to benefit from the growth in the humanoid sector [5][9]. Risks and Considerations - **Macroeconomic Risks**: The report highlights potential risks including a slowdown in China's economy, which could adversely affect demand for industrial goods and impact the humanoid robot market [22][23]. - **Competitive Pressures**: Intense competition from domestic and foreign enterprises may lead to market share losses for companies in the humanoid robotics space [22][27]. Conclusion - The humanoid robot industry in China is poised for growth driven by technological advancements and increasing market demand. Investors are encouraged to focus on high-quality companies with strong fundamentals and exposure to the humanoid theme, while remaining aware of macroeconomic and competitive risks that could impact performance [5][22].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Manufacturing and Industrial Automation in China - **Key Indicators**: Manufacturing Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) and production metrics for various sectors Core Insights 1. **Manufacturing FAI Decline**: Manufacturing FAI decreased by **-2.0% year-on-year (yoy)** in August, a significant drop from **-0.2% yoy** in July, primarily due to declines in electronics and basic materials FAI [3][51] 2. **Chemical and Steel FAI**: Chemical FAI was reported at **-5.2% yoy** and steel FAI at **-4.1% yoy**, negatively impacting companies like Supcon and Baosight [3][24][26] 3. **Industrial Robot and Machine Tool Production**: Industrial robot production increased by **14% yoy** but remained flat month-on-month (mom). Machine tool production rose by **16% yoy**, also flat mom, indicating a stable production environment [3][40] 4. **Export Trends**: Key equipment exports remained stable, with PIMM export value and volume increasing by **24% yoy** and **34% yoy**, respectively. Machine tools saw a value increase of **19% yoy** but a volume decrease of **20% yoy** [4][29][34] 5. **Order Trends for Coverage Companies**: Orders for coverage companies were broadly steady in August, with notable growth in Inovance's IA orders at **+20-30% yoy**. However, Yiheda's orders were impacted by a **-12% yoy** decline in the automotive sector [4][20][11] Additional Important Insights 1. **Capex Financing Weakness**: Capex financing showed a **-12% yoy** decline in August, following a drastic **-96% yoy** drop in July, indicating a tightening investment environment [64] 2. **Profitability Metrics**: The profit before tax (PBT) margin for industrial enterprises with revenue over **Rmb20 million** was **5.5%** in Q2 2025, slightly down from **5.6%** in Q1 2025 [71] 3. **Electricity and Cement Production**: Electricity generation increased by **3.2% yoy** in August, while cement production saw a decline of **-6.2% yoy** [81][88] 4. **Consumer Market Trends**: Passenger vehicle retail sales and production increased by **5%** and **11% yoy**, respectively, indicating a recovery in the automotive sector [90] 5. **NEV and Renewables**: Electric vehicle (EV) sales and production surged by **27% yoy** in August, reflecting strong demand in the new energy vehicle market [107] Conclusion The manufacturing sector in China is experiencing a mixed environment with declining FAI, stable production metrics, and selective strength in orders. The overall economic backdrop remains challenging, with significant declines in capex financing and profitability metrics, while certain sectors like EVs show robust growth.