Core Insights - NIKE, Inc.'s Greater China market has historically been a key driver of global growth, benefiting from a growing middle class, increased sports participation, and strong brand loyalty [1] Market Challenges - Recent years have seen complexities in the Greater China market due to macroeconomic headwinds, weak consumer spending, and increased competition from local brands like Anta and Li-Ning, leading to significant sales declines [2][3] - In Q2 fiscal 2026, revenues in Greater China fell 17% year over year to $1.42 billion, with NIKE Direct down 18%, Digital revenues down 36%, and wholesale revenues down 15% [3][9] Strategic Initiatives - NIKE is implementing "Win Now" actions in major cities, focusing on product innovation storytelling, disciplined assortment curation, and improved in-store presentation [3][4] - The company is evolving its approach to better align with China's retail landscape and digital-first marketplace, which will take time to fully implement [4] Competitive Landscape - Key competitors in China include adidas and lululemon, both of which are actively expanding their market presence and adapting strategies to local consumer preferences [5][6][7] - adidas is focusing on locally relevant product lines and diversifying its supply chain, while lululemon has seen a 47% revenue increase in Mainland China in constant currency [6][7] Financial Performance and Estimates - NIKE shares have declined 15.6% over the past six months, compared to the industry's decline of 13.8% [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NIKE's fiscal 2026 earnings indicates a year-over-year decline of 27.8%, with a projected growth of 55.7% for fiscal 2027 [11] - NIKE currently trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 30.91X, higher than the industry average of 27.65X [10]

Core Viewpoint - NIKE, Inc. is expected to report a significant decline in earnings per share (EPS) for the fiscal first quarter of 2026, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market and competition, particularly in Greater China [2][5]. Financial Performance - NIKE is projected to report a profit of $0.28 per share on a diluted basis for Q1 2026, down 60% from $0.70 per share in the same quarter last year [2]. - For the full fiscal year 2026, analysts expect an EPS of $1.68, which represents a 22.2% decrease from $2.16 in fiscal 2025 [3]. - However, EPS is anticipated to rebound significantly to $2.59 in fiscal 2027, marking a year-over-year increase of 54.2% [3]. Stock Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, NIKE's stock has underperformed, declining by 21.3%, while the S&P 500 Index has gained 15.4% [4]. - The stock has also lagged behind the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund, which saw an 18.3% increase during the same period [4]. Market Challenges - NIKE's struggles are attributed to several factors, including a lack of innovation, reduced reliance on third-party sellers, and intense competition from domestic brands in Greater China, such as Anta and Li-Ning [5]. - U.S. tariffs have further complicated sourcing from China and other manufacturing hubs like Vietnam [5]. Analyst Sentiment - The consensus opinion among analysts is moderately bullish, with a "Moderate Buy" rating overall. Out of 36 analysts, 15 recommend a "Strong Buy," four suggest a "Moderate Buy," 15 give a "Hold," and two recommend a "Strong Sell" [7]. - The average analyst price target for NIKE is $80.56, indicating a potential upside of 16.3% from current levels [7].