炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源|New Economist微信公众号 《2028年全球智力危机》 编者按：研究机构Citrini Research近期发布了一份关于人工智能经济风险的假设性报告，引发了市场广 泛关注和讨论。报告原标题为《2028全球智能危机——来自未来的金融史思想实验》（THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISIS： A Thought Exercise in Financial History， from the Future），该报告 明确声明其唯一目的是模拟一个相对未被充分研究的情景，是一个"思想实验"而非预测。 报告设定了一个假想的时间点——2028年6月，并描绘了人工智能（AI）快速发展可能引发的连锁经济 危机。报告提出了几个核心概念： "AI效率悖论"：AI的成功可能导致经济不稳定。其推演的核心风险链条包括：白领大规模失业：AI替 代复杂白领劳动，导致"智能溢价"消失，中产阶层收入结构受损。 "幽灵GDP"与消费萎缩：即企业利润因AI增效而增长，但被替代的劳动力消费能力下降，货币流通速度 放缓，形成"产出增长 ...

美国一份病毒式传播且完全基于猜测的报告，让美国股市23日遭遇一波AI恐慌。 这篇名为《2028年全球智能危机》的报告，由鲜为人知的美国公司Citrini Research发布在在线写作平台 Substack上，虚构了从现在开始到2028年6月结束的情景，称届时美国失业率将突破10%，"占领硅谷"运 动的参与者将在AI企业OpenAI和Anthropic的办公场所外扎营。一系列广泛使用AI代理的事件将冲击软 件公司，并向外扩散，波及到私人信贷和抵押贷款，导致经济陷入恶性循环，出现螺旋式下滑。 投资者对此感到不安。标准普尔指数23日下跌超过1%，其软件和服务指数跌至去年4月美国总统特朗普 宣布"解放日"关税以来的最低水平。科技股受到打击，纳斯达克综合指数一度下跌超过1%。 24日，美国白宫经济顾问委员会代理主席皮埃尔·亚雷德表示，Citrini Research近日发布的报告是"一篇 有趣的科幻小说"。 据《卫报》报道，Citrini设定的情景如下： 开发者和普通人不再使用外卖应用DoorDash，而是编写自己的应用，这些应用相互竞争，使市场碎片 化，摧毁了传统企业的利润。 Uber等拼车应用的商业模式也随之消失 ...

Jason Lemkin is one of the leading SaaS investors of the last decade with a portfolio including the likes of Algolia, Talkdesk, Owner, RevenueCat, Saleloft and more. Rory O’Driscoll is a General Partner @ Scale where he has led investments in category leaders such as Bill.com (BILL), Box (BOX), DocuSign (DOCU), and WalkMe (WKME), among others. ----------------------------------------------- Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:42 Anthropic's $30B Raise at $380B 05:53 Why SaaS Stocks Keep Getting Crushed 20:53 Wall St ...

Core Insights - Software companies, particularly SaaS firms, are experiencing significant stock declines following the launch of Anthropic's AI tool, Claude Cowork, which aims to replace existing software solutions [1][2]. - The market reaction reflects a mix of overreaction and legitimate concerns regarding AI's potential to disrupt various software sectors [2][3]. Software Industry Analysis - Major software companies like Shopify, Monday.com, and Fastly have seen stock drops of 23%, 15%, and 16% respectively, indicating a broader trend of declining investor confidence in the sector [1]. - The software market is categorized into three groups: 1. Large, financially robust companies (e.g., Microsoft) that are less likely to be affected by AI disruptions. 2. Ecosystem companies that are critical to their customers' operations (e.g., Shopify). 3. Companies that provide niche solutions which could be easily replaced by AI alternatives (e.g., HubSpot, Atlassian) [1][2]. AI Impact on Software - The emergence of AI tools like Claude Cowork is seen as a pivotal moment, similar to last year's DeepSeek moment, raising questions about the sustainability of certain software companies [2]. - The ongoing trend suggests that while some software will be replaced by AI, mission-critical software is likely to remain resilient [2][3]. Job Market Insights - Recent job numbers indicate a decline in job openings to the lowest level since 2020, with layoffs peaking at levels not seen since January 2009, raising concerns about the overall economic health [8][9]. - Entry-level tech jobs are particularly affected, with AI contributing to this trend, although unemployment rates remain within historical averages [9][10]. Investment Opportunities - CrowdStrike (CRWD) is highlighted as a strong investment due to its essential cybersecurity services, which are unlikely to be replaced by AI [4]. - Toast (TOST) is noted for its entrenched position in the restaurant ecosystem, making it less vulnerable to AI disruption [5]. - Zscaler (ZS) is recognized for its potential growth in the cybersecurity market, driven by increasing AI technology demands [18]. - GoDaddy (GDDY) is considered undervalued, with a strong business model that combines software and physical infrastructure [19]. Company Performance Metrics - Powell Industries (POWL) reported a 63% increase in net new orders year-over-year, indicating strong demand in the industrial sector [17]. - Zscaler's stock has recently hit a 52-week low, presenting a potential buying opportunity in the cybersecurity space [18].

Company Overview - Robinhood's fourth quarter revenue missed expectations, leading to an almost 8% decline in after-hours trading [1] - The stock was already down about 40% from its all-time high in October, raising concerns about its performance during the current crypto downturn [4] Financial Performance - Key metrics showed deceleration, particularly in net deposit growth, which continued to decline into January [2] - Despite the topline miss, management's commentary on future business growth and transaction volumes was constructive, indicating a decent outlook [3] Crypto Market Impact - Crypto revenue has decreased from over 20% to an expected near 10% of total business, with a potential 50% haircut to current trading volumes during a crypto winter [6] - This scenario would only result in a manageable 10% hit to Robinhood's EBITDA [6] Business Diversification - Robinhood is better positioned during the current crypto downturn due to its diversified product lineup, including a significant increase in net interest income and new offerings like retirement accounts and banking products [9][10] - The company is evolving into a more comprehensive financial app, which enhances its resilience compared to previous downturns [8] Options Trading Growth - Options trading, which constitutes about 25% of Robinhood's revenue, is expected to see significant growth, potentially up to 40% due to increased penetration and new product offerings [12][14] - The options market is less cyclical, allowing for trading in both up and down markets, which supports long-term growth for Robinhood [13] Prediction Markets - Robinhood's entry into prediction markets is seen as a potential growth area, leveraging its strong distribution capabilities despite increasing competition [15] - The company has announced a partnership that enhances its control over economics and product innovation in this space [16]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 is projected to achieve a 13% increase in earnings per share for the fourth quarter, marking the 10th consecutive quarter of annual earnings growth and the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth [1] - Prior to the reporting period, analysts had anticipated an 8.3% increase in earnings per share, which was a decrease from the third quarter's 13.6% growth rate [3] - Recent adjustments in earnings expectations have been particularly favorable for tech companies, which have been significant contributors to earnings growth in recent quarters [3] Group 2 - Major capital expenditures by Big Tech are influencing the AI trade, alongside ongoing themes such as artificial intelligence, tariff policies from the Trump administration, and a K-shaped consumer economy [4] - Upcoming earnings reports from notable companies include Coca-Cola, Spotify, Robinhood, Lyft, Ford, Rivian, Moderna, Airbnb, and Coinbase, which will provide further insights into market trends [4]

Company Overview - Proactive is a financial news publisher that provides fast, accessible, informative, and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience [2] - The company has a team of experienced and qualified news journalists who produce independent content [2] Market Focus - Proactive specializes in medium and small-cap markets while also covering blue-chip companies, commodities, and broader investment stories [3] - The content delivered includes insights across various sectors such as biotech and pharma, mining and natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging digital and EV technologies [3] Technology Adoption - Proactive is recognized for being a forward-looking technology adopter, utilizing decades of expertise and experience among its content creators [4] - The company employs automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring that all published content is edited and authored by humans [5]

Group 1 - Monday.com's stock dropped over 19% following the release of weak guidance amid concerns about AI disrupting the software business model [1] - The company projected revenue between $338 million and $340 million for the current quarter, below the $343 million expected by analysts [2] - For the full year, monday.com forecasted revenue between $1.452 billion and $1.462 billion, compared to a FactSet estimate of $1.48 billion [2] Group 2 - The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) has decreased by 22% this year, while monday.com shares have lost half their value [3] - During an earnings call, management defended the company's market position and emphasized new AI capabilities being implemented to enhance conversion and engagement [3]

Core Insights - The software provider reported earnings that exceeded market expectations, indicating strong performance in the current financial period [1] - However, the company provided a disappointing outlook for 2026, suggesting potential challenges ahead [1] Financial Performance - The earnings reported were better than anticipated, reflecting robust operational efficiency and possibly increased demand for the company's software solutions [1] Future Outlook - The outlook for 2026 was characterized as disappointing, which may raise concerns among investors regarding future growth and profitability [1]

Group 1 - Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and other major stock indexes rose in premarket action following a key vote that advanced a deal to end the government shutdown [2] - UnitedHealth Group (UNH) experienced a decline in the stock market after comments made by President Donald Trump regarding health insurers [2] - Monday.com reported earnings that exceeded Q3 estimates, but the stock price fell due to revenue guidance that was below expectations [2][3] Group 2 - Trump's comments on health insurers have positively impacted S&P 500 health care stocks, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards this sector [5] - The stock market has shown resilience with weekly gains despite the ongoing government shutdown, suggesting investor confidence in the broader market [5]