热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：建信期货研究服务 美国或打击伊朗，假期油价上行 春节期间，油价延续节前的上涨态势并加速冲高。布伦特原油期货价格上涨4.1%，重新站上70美元关 口；WTI主力也涨超4%，站上65美元。油价上涨一方面原因在于EIA最新数据显示美国原油以及成品油 库存均大幅回落。原油库存周环比减901.4万桶，汽油库存减321.3万桶，馏分油库存减456.6万桶。此 外，油价上涨主要受到地缘局势的影响。 美国与伊朗在2月17日至18日的第二轮谈判陷入僵局，未能就核心议题达成共识。随后，美方在2月19日 下达"最后通牒"，声称若限期内无法达成协议，可能采取"进一步军事行动"。23日，美媒援引美国中央 情报局前情报人员的话称，美国可能在2月23日或2月24日对伊朗发动军事打击。消息人士称特朗普"倾 向于在未来数日（对伊朗）进行初步打击"，然后在未来数月发动一场更大规模的军事打击，迫使伊 朗"屈服"并按美方要求达成协议。地缘溢价进一步抬升。 伊核协议谈判已持续数年，始终没有达成实质性进展。 2018年5月，特朗普表示奥巴马政府达成的伊核协议是一个单方面受益的协议， ...

We're trading over $70, just around $72 now. And that's pretty much at the top end of the risk premium that a lot of analysts have been talking about. You know, somewhere from from three to to 0.And we've been seeing that priced in over the last few weeks there. And so we're kind of at the top of that of that level based on based on where we started when this came in. And that's pricing in the risk of some sort of action going on.Most of the analysts that that we've been hearing from will say that if there ...

Escalation of geopolitical risk in the Middle East has added a risk premium to crude oil, supporting prices. The Wall Street Journal said last Wednesday that the US has discussed seizing tankers carrying Iranian oil. Also, the US is sending a second aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East to prepare for military action should nuclear talks with Iran fail. The US Department of Transportation recently issued a maritime advisory stating that American-flagged ships should stay as far as possible from I ...

Core Insights - Oil demand is projected to rise by 1.34 million barrels a day next year, driven by easing inflation, fiscal measures, and improving global trade [1] Industry Summary - The increase in oil demand is attributed to several factors, including easing inflation, which may enhance consumer spending and economic activity [1] - Fiscal measures implemented by governments are expected to support economic growth, further contributing to the rise in oil demand [1] - Improving global trade conditions are anticipated to bolster oil consumption as international commerce picks up [1]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC forecasts a decline in world oil demand for crude from the OPEC+ producer group by 400,000 barrels per day in the second quarter compared to the first quarter of this year [1] Group 1 - The anticipated drop in oil demand is attributed to various market dynamics affecting consumption patterns [1] - The forecast indicates a significant adjustment in the oil market, reflecting changing economic conditions and potential impacts on pricing [1] - OPEC's outlook suggests a need for producers to adapt to the evolving demand landscape to maintain market stability [1]

I think oil right now and just the rest of the commodity complex is really dominated by three themes geopolitics, trade and technology. And certainly right now, geopolitics are a main the main driving force pushing oil close to the high end of of this year's range. But we still expect, of course, if we have kind of a either a peace deal with with Iran or maybe just just kind of a limited just a limited skirmish like we had back in June for prices to revert back to around $60 a barrel on Brent.The market is ...

Geopolitical Influence - Geopolitics is currently the main driving force affecting oil prices, pushing them towards the high end of this year's range, with expectations of a price reversion to around $60 per barrel on Brent if a peace deal with Iran is reached or if limited skirmishes occur [1] Market Supply and Demand - The oil market is oversupplied, with rising inventories and an expected surplus of approximately 2 million barrels per day in the global Brent market this year [2][3] - OPEC has additional time to decide on production adjustments, but there is a significant amount of oil available in the market, and the price war initiated by OPEC to recover market share is not yet fully resolved [3] OPEC's Strategy - If oil prices exceed $70 per barrel and remain there, OPEC is likely to be incentivized to bring spare capacity back to the market [4] - OPEC is expected to increase oil production to recover market share, with a meaningful decline in super productive capacity anticipated over the next one to two years [5][7] U.S. Production Impact - Between 2022 and 2024, U.S. crude oil output increased by an additional 3 million barrels per day, which OPEC+ aims to avoid repeating [6] - A resurgence in U.S. shale output could occur if prices fall significantly below $70 per barrel, which is undesirable for OPEC [5][6]

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices are rising, with gasoline reaching a 2.5-month high, driven by a decline in the dollar index and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2][3] Geopolitical Risks - The US has advised ships to avoid the Strait of Hormuz due to rising geopolitical risks, which has added a risk premium to crude oil prices [3] - Concerns over the potential failure of US-Iran negotiations regarding uranium enrichment could lead to military action, disrupting oil production and shipping lanes [3] Market Dynamics - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to a 6-month high, positively impacting energy demand and supporting crude prices [2] - An increase in Venezuelan crude exports, rising from 498,000 bpd in December to 800,000 bpd in January, is contributing to global oil supply and exerting bearish pressure on prices [4] Ongoing Conflicts - The unresolved territorial issues in the Russia-Ukraine conflict are likely to prolong restrictions on Russian crude, which supports higher oil prices [5]

Core Insights - OPEC's oil output decreased in January due to reduced supply from Nigeria and Libya, which counterbalanced increases from other member countries like Venezuela following the U.S. capture of Nicolas Maduro and the conclusion of an oil blockade [1] Group 1 - OPEC's oil output fell in January [1] - Lower supply from Nigeria and Libya contributed to the decline [1] - Increases in oil production from Venezuela were noted after significant political changes [1]

Geopolitical Leverage - Low oil prices provide President Trump with increased leverage over Iran, reducing concerns about oil price spikes amid geopolitical tensions [1] - The U.S. has deployed the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East, indicating a potential military response to Iran's nuclear negotiations [3] Oil Market Dynamics - U.S. crude oil prices increased by 26 cents, or 0.4%, closing at $63.55 per barrel, with prices up more than 10% since the beginning of the year after a 20% decline in 2025 [2] - Analysts expect a surplus in the oil market this year due to increased output from OPEC+ and strong U.S. production [2] Iranian Oil Production - Iran, an OPEC member, produces over 3 million barrels of oil per day, and recent diplomatic negotiations regarding its nuclear program were described as a "good start" by Iranian officials [4] Venezuelan Oil Production - U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright anticipates that Venezuelan oil production will increase by several hundred thousand barrels per day this year, contributing significantly to global demand growth [5] - The U.S. has taken control of Venezuela's oil sales, with efforts to rebuild its energy sector under President Trump's direction [5]