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Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP): A Bear Case Theory
Yahoo Finance· 2026-02-28 13:29
Core Thesis - Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP) is viewed negatively due to its underlying unit economics and capital-intensive business model, despite attractive headline metrics [1][8]. Company Overview - Jefferson Capital is a newly public company that specializes in purchasing charged-off consumer debt, with a majority ownership of 67% by J.C. Flowers [2]. - The company targets to buy defaulted loan portfolios at approximately 5–6% of their face value, aiming for a 2x gross recovery multiple through various collection methods [2]. Financial Metrics - JCAP's share price was $22.07 as of February 11th, with a trailing P/E ratio of 9.26 [1]. - The company has reported a levered free cash flow yield of around 20% and a year-over-year operating income growth of 39% [3]. Unit Economics - Mature vintages from 2017–2020 achieved about 2x gross recoveries and over 27% IRRs before operating costs, but cash operating expenses average around 40% of collections [4]. - After accounting for these costs, the implied unlevered returns drop to the high single digits [4]. Valuation Concerns - Even with a 60% after-tax recovery margin, modeled equity values are estimated between $300 million and $400 million, after deducting $1.3–1.4 billion in liabilities, indicating limited upside compared to current valuations [5]. - Although JCAP appears inexpensive relative to peers like Encore Capital and PRA Group, its capital-intensive model resembles a capital-recycling operation rather than a true compounding business [5]. Reinvestment and Governance - Nearly all excess cash flow must be reinvested to maintain portfolio size, as demonstrated by a $300 million loan book purchase in late 2025 [6]. - Sustainable through-cycle return on equity (ROE) is likely in the range of 12–13%, and governance is heavily influenced by its private equity sponsor, suggesting a valuation closer to book value rather than its current premium [6].
Strategy (MSTR) Reports Q4 Loss, Beats Revenue Estimates
ZACKS· 2026-02-06 00:25
Company Performance - Strategy reported a quarterly loss of $42.93 per share, which was better than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $46.02, compared to a loss of $3.2 per share a year ago, indicating an earnings surprise of -193.29% [1] - The company posted revenues of $122.99 million for the quarter ended December 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.83%, and showing an increase from year-ago revenues of $120.7 million [2] - Over the last four quarters, Strategy has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times and topped consensus revenue estimates three times [2] Stock Performance - Strategy shares have lost about 15% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 0.5% [3] - The current Zacks Rank for Strategy is 3 (Hold), indicating that the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future [6] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $5.81 on revenues of $119.9 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $51.60 on revenues of $496.05 million [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Strategy was mixed ahead of the earnings release, which could change following the recent report [6] Industry Context - The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, to which Strategy belongs, is currently in the top 33% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can impact Strategy's performance [5]
SB Financial Group, Inc. (SBFG) Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates
ZACKS· 2026-01-29 23:55
分组1 - SB Financial Group, Inc. (SBFG) reported quarterly earnings of $0.65 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.64 per share, and up from $0.52 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +1.56% [1] - The company posted revenues of $16.42 million for the quarter ended December 2025, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.84%, compared to year-ago revenues of $15.45 million [2] - SB Financial Group has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times over the last four quarters and topped consensus revenue estimates two times during the same period [2] 分组2 - The stock has underperformed the market, losing about 2.4% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 1.9% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $0.57 on revenues of $16.6 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.45 on revenues of $68.9 million [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Banks - Northeast is currently in the top 23% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook for the industry [8]
Gold.com (GOLD) Surges 9.8%: Is This an Indication of Further Gains?
ZACKS· 2026-01-13 18:46
Core Viewpoint - Gold.com shares experienced a significant increase of 9.8% in the last trading session, closing at $42.83, supported by strong trading volume and a 23% gain over the past four weeks [1] Company Overview - Gold.com has maintained its rally for three consecutive days, driven by its integrated operations in trading, distribution, logistics, minting, financing, storage, and hedging, positioning it as a comprehensive service provider in the precious metals industry [2] - The company serves a diverse global customer base, including sovereign mints, banks, refiners, investors, and collectors, bolstered by a 35+ year relationship with the U.S. Mint [2] - Gold.com has completed the acquisition of Monex, enhancing its market position through secured financing, proprietary silver products, and its own mint operations [3] Financial Performance - The company is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.70 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 27.3%, while revenues are projected to be $2.73 billion, a slight decrease of 0.5% from the previous year [4] - The consensus EPS estimate for Gold.com has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating that stock price movements may not sustain without trends in earnings estimate revisions [5] Industry Context - Gold.com is categorized under the Zacks Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, which includes other companies like PRA Group, that experienced a 4.8% decline in the last trading session [6] - PRA Group's consensus EPS estimate has also remained unchanged, with a year-over-year increase of 6.4% expected [7]
SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) Tops Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
ZACKS· 2025-04-29 13:20
分组1 - SoFi Technologies, Inc. reported quarterly earnings of $0.06 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.03 per share, and showing an increase from $0.02 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 100% [1] - The company posted revenues of $770.72 million for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.82%, and up from $580.65 million year-over-year [2] - SoFi Technologies has consistently surpassed consensus EPS estimates for the last four quarters [2] 分组2 - The stock has underperformed the market, losing about 14.3% since the beginning of the year compared to the S&P 500's decline of 6% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.05 on revenues of $776.21 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.25 on revenues of $3.21 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Financial - Miscellaneous Services is currently in the bottom 45% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [8]
Are Investors Undervaluing PRA Group (PRAA) Right Now?
ZACKS· 2025-03-26 14:46
Group 1 - The Zacks Rank system emphasizes earnings estimates and revisions to identify winning stocks, while also considering trends in value, growth, and momentum for strong picks [1][2] - Value investing is highlighted as a preferred method for identifying strong stocks, focusing on companies believed to be undervalued based on fundamental analysis [2] - The Style Scores system complements the Zacks Rank, allowing investors to find stocks with specific traits, particularly in the "Value" category for value investors [3] Group 2 - PRA Group (PRAA) is identified as a notable stock for value investors, currently holding a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) and a Value grade of A [4] - PRAA's P/E ratio stands at 9.17, significantly lower than the industry average of 14.79, indicating potential undervaluation [4] - The P/S ratio for PRAA is 0.74, compared to the industry's average of 1.78, reinforcing the perception of undervaluation [5] - PRAA's P/CF ratio is 9.09, which is attractive against the industry's average of 14.58, suggesting a solid cash outlook [6] - The combination of these metrics indicates that PRAA is likely undervalued, supported by a strong earnings outlook [7]