RT Discounted Trash Flow (@DiscountedTr)> Hedge fund billionaire, self-appointed campus plagiarism cop, Twitter’s most prolific essayist, now also professional pedophile protector> Wife’s MIT lab pocketed $150k from Epstein post-conviction> Wife confirmed she met Epstein once, got invited to more dinners but claims she ghosted> Awfully convenient, like how all these rich & famous people “cut ties” yet never once report Jeffrey to law enforcement> Ackman later emailed MIT director, saying to keep his wife's ...

And I think Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. over time also suffered a bit from shareholders trying to figure out how do I think about this business. In the conventional public company, there is usually a certain amount of GAAP earnings or a number or a free cash flow number, and, you know, people want a simple rubric for thinking about it. You know, what multiple do I put on this number, how do I track this number over time? And, you know, the multiple is determined based on, you know, the persistency and the g ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved a record EBT of $476 million from master planned communities (MPC), driven by the sale of 621 residential acres at an average price of $890,000 per acre [29] - The operating assets portfolio delivered a full-year NOI of $276 million, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase, with same-store office NOI increasing by 11% and multifamily by 6% [31] - Adjusted operating cash flow for 2026 is expected to range between $415 million and $465 million, with MPC EBT projected between $343 million and $391 million [36][37] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The MPC segment's pricing power has become a primary driver of long-term profitability, with finished residential land sold at a record price of $1.7 million per acre [30] - The condominium platform contracted $1.6 billion in future revenue during 2025, marking the strongest year in the company's history [32] - The company expects condominium gross revenue for 2026 to be approximately $720 million to $750 million, with estimated profits of $108 million to $128 million [39] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Demand was strong in both Summerlin and Bridgeland, exceeding pricing and margin expectations [29] - The company has unlocked an additional 3-4 million square feet of entitlements in Hawaii, contributing to its development pipeline [7][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is transitioning from a pure real estate development firm to a diversified holding company, with the acquisition of Vantage Holdings as a key strategic move [4][22] - The focus is on optimizing long-term per-acre value in the MPC business rather than maximizing any single year's earnings [38] - The company aims to leverage its real estate operations to generate excess cash for reinvestment in Vantage and other operating companies [74] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to close the Vantage acquisition by June, emphasizing the importance of regulatory approvals [17] - The company anticipates that the insurance business will enhance overall growth and provide diversification of earnings streams [26] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a conservative balance sheet while pursuing growth opportunities [44] Other Important Information - The company has refinanced its senior notes, achieving the tightest credit spreads in its history, which reflects strong market reception [42] - The company is focused on maintaining liquidity and flexibility in its capital structure to support ongoing projects and withstand downturns [44] Q&A Session Summary Question: Condo margins of The Park Ward Village related to infrastructure work - Management confirmed that infrastructure costs were anticipated and will benefit future towers, although current margins are impacted by the project's specifics [50] Question: Strategy regarding commercial real estate portfolio - Management indicated a long-term view on commercial real estate holdings, considering potential partnerships but valuing control over assets [54] Question: Timeline for profitability improvements at Vantage - Management expects 2026 to be the first year of meaningful profitability for Vantage, with benefits from scale and operational leverage anticipated [60] Question: Housing affordability initiatives - Management stated that they focus on a broad range of home prices to attract diverse buyers, with single-family rentals being a modest part of their portfolio [68] Question: Priorities for excess cash - Management outlined that the first priority for excess cash will be to ensure full ownership of Vantage, followed by investments in other operating companies [74]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved a record EBT of $476 million from master planned communities (MPC), driven by the sale of 621 residential acres at an average price of $890,000 per acre [28] - The operating assets portfolio delivered a full-year NOI of $276 million, an 8% increase year-over-year, with same-store office NOI increasing by 11% and multifamily by 6% [31] - Adjusted operating cash flow for 2026 is expected to range from $415 million to $465 million, reflecting a normalization as the company transitions into a diversified holding company [35] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The MPC segment's EBT is projected to be between $343 million and $391 million for 2026, with the expected decline primarily due to the absence of a bulk land sale [36] - The condominium platform contracted $1.6 billion in future revenue during 2025, marking the strongest year in the company's history [32] - For 2026, condominium gross revenue is expected to be approximately $720 million to $750 million, with estimated profits of $108 million to $128 million [39] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Demand was strong in both Summerlin and Bridgeland, with finished residential land sold at a record price of $1.7 million per acre [29] - The company has unlocked an additional 3-4 million square feet of entitlements in Hawaii, contributing to its pipeline of new products [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is transitioning from a pure real estate and development focus to a diversified holding company, highlighted by the acquisition of Vantage Holdings [4] - The MPC business is viewed as a long-term value driver, focusing on optimizing per-acre value rather than maximizing annual profits [38] - The company aims to leverage its real estate operations to generate excess cash for reinvestment in Vantage and other operating investments [72] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to close the Vantage acquisition by June, emphasizing the strategic benefits of the insurance platform [17] - The company anticipates that the real estate business will generate significant excess cash, which will be reinvested to enhance growth and profitability [26] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a conservative balance sheet while pursuing growth opportunities [43] Other Important Information - The company has achieved tighter credit spreads on recent bond issues, reflecting improved market perception and a reduction in the cost of capital [75] - The insurance business is expected to benefit from improved profitability as it scales and shifts towards higher return strategies [60] Q&A Session Summary Question: Condo margins related to infrastructure work - Management confirmed that infrastructure costs were anticipated and will benefit future developments, although they impacted current margins [48][49] Question: Strategy on commercial real estate portfolio - Management indicated a long-term view on commercial holdings, considering potential partnerships but valuing control over assets [51][53] Question: Timeline for Vantage's profitability improvements - Management expects 2026 to be the first year of meaningful profitability for Vantage, with improvements anticipated as the company scales [58][60] Question: Housing affordability initiatives - Management stated that they focus on a range of home prices to attract diverse buyers, with single-family rentals being a modest part of their strategy [66] Question: Priorities for excess cash - The first priority for excess cash will be to fully own the insurer, followed by investments in other operating companies [72]

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Group 1: Stock Market Performance - Technology and energy stocks were the main drivers of the US stock market's rise on Wednesday, with the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks all closing higher, led by Amazon and Nvidia, which both saw intraday gains of nearly 3% [1] - Nvidia's stock price benefited from a new agreement with Meta to deploy millions of Nvidia chips over the coming years [1] - Amazon's stock was supported by a 65% increase in holdings from Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, despite a 77% cut in holdings by Berkshire Hathaway [1] - Major US stock indices showed gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.56% to 6881.31 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.26% to 49662.66 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.78% to 22753.635 points [10] Group 2: Economic Data and Federal Reserve - Strong economic data, including December new housing starts and core capital goods orders, exceeded expectations, temporarily overshadowing AI-related concerns and supporting gains in major US stock indices [2] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed internal divisions regarding interest rate decisions, with some officials advocating for the inclusion of potential rate hikes in guidance, which led to a reduction in stock gains [3] Group 3: Energy Sector - Energy stocks were boosted by a rebound in oil prices, with US oil prices rising over 5% at one point, marking the largest increase in nearly four months [33] - The potential for military action against Iran by the US has increased, contributing to the rise in oil prices, with WTI crude oil closing at $65.19 per barrel, up 4.59% [34] Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices initially rose above $5000 but fell back below this level after the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes were released, with spot gold closing at $4985.45, up 2.2% for the day [35][37] - Silver prices also saw significant gains, with COMEX silver futures rising 5.5% to $77.598 per ounce [38]

Group 1 - The discussion centers around the impact of AI on productivity and the economy, with uncertainty about the long-term effects [4][16][19] - Recent productivity growth has been noted, with a current annual percentage rate of 2.7%, but the exact contribution of AI remains unclear [2][6] - There is a distinction between one-time productivity adjustments and sustainable growth driven by technology, with the latter being essential for long-term economic improvement [5][6] Group 2 - The potential for AI to drive productivity gains without causing inflation is acknowledged, but inflation remains above target levels [8][9] - The Federal Reserve is grappling with the implications of AI on job growth and inflation, indicating a complex relationship between productivity and labor market dynamics [17][18] - The conversation reflects historical parallels to the 1990s, where productivity gains were linked to economic growth, but the current context is different [7][12] Group 3 - The construction of data centers and their impact on labor and material costs is a topic of investigation, highlighting the broader economic implications of AI investments [10][11] - The productivity gains observed may be altering the cost structures of firms, affecting profit margins and pricing power [11][19] - The ongoing transformation in the economy is compared to past technological advancements, suggesting a potential shift in economic paradigms [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. has successfully completed a $1 billion notes offering, consisting of $500 million in senior notes due 2032 and $500 million in senior notes due 2034, aimed at refinancing existing debt and supporting corporate purposes [1][2]. Group 1: Notes Offering Details - The offering includes $500 million aggregate principal amount of senior notes due 2032 and $500 million aggregate principal amount of senior notes due 2034 [1]. - The net proceeds from the offering will be used to redeem all outstanding 5.375% Senior Notes due 2028, along with related premiums, accrued interest, and expenses [2]. Group 2: Regulatory and Legal Aspects - The notes were offered in a private placement to qualified institutional buyers under Rule 144A of the Securities Act and to non-U.S. persons under Regulation S [3]. - The notes have not been registered under the Securities Act and cannot be sold in the U.S. without registration or an applicable exemption [3][4]. Group 3: Company Overview - Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. is focused on long-term shareholder value through its real estate platform, owning and developing commercial, residential, and mixed-use properties across the U.S. [5]. - The company’s portfolio includes master planned communities and various operating properties in locations such as Greater Houston, Las Vegas, Greater Phoenix, Honolulu, and Columbia, Maryland [5].

Core Viewpoint - Bill Ackman, through Pershing Square, has made a significant investment in Meta Platforms, which is expected to yield long-term benefits due to its strong business fundamentals and AI integration potential [1][4]. Investment Details - Pershing Square's investment in Meta accounts for approximately 10% of its portfolio, potentially valuing the investment at around $1.5 billion based on a total portfolio value of $14 billion [2]. - The investment rationale includes Meta's high-quality advertising business, strong balance sheet, and a projected 22% annual growth rate in 2025 [4]. Performance Analysis - Meta's latest earnings report showed revenues of $59.89 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $8.88, exceeding forecasts [5]. - Following the earnings report, Meta's stock surged approximately 10% due to an optimistic revenue forecast for 2026, estimating sales between $53.5 billion and $56.5 billion [6]. - Despite the initial surge, Meta's stock has faced a decline, with a year-to-date drop of 3.08% and a current price of $639.77, which is 13.35% below its January high [7]. - Over the past 12 months, Meta's stock has decreased by 10.69%, suggesting it may be undervalued compared to its strong financial performance [8].

Market Overview - The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial, and Nasdaq experienced declines of 1.5%, 1.4%, and 2.2% respectively, as markets pulled back from record levels due to an AI-induced selloff [1] - Investors are increasingly concerned about potential techno-disruptions, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [1] Company Focus: Meta - Bill Ackman's Pershing Square has taken a $2 billion stake in Meta, representing about 10% of the hedge fund's portfolio [3] - Despite Meta's stock returning over 500% since the beginning of 2023, it has faced a 12% decline over the past year [3] - Meta plans to invest $115 billion to $135 billion in capital expenditures by 2026, raising concerns among investors about the effectiveness of its AI spending [3] - Ackman argues that concerns regarding Meta's AI-related spending are underestimating the company's long-term upside potential, particularly as the average price per ad rose by 6% in Q4 2025 [3] - Meta's current trading at 27.3 times earnings is viewed as favorable compared to many of its tech peers, supporting Ackman's value investment thesis [3] Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Stronger-than-expected jobs data has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts to focus on inflation [3] - Recent inflation data dropped to a near five-year low, potentially paving the way for deeper rate cuts in the future [3] Sector Impact - The appearance of new AI applications has caused significant declines in shares of trucking, logistics, software, insurance, and real estate sectors, with some experiencing temporary drops of double digits [2]