Market Dynamics in Hard Disk Drives - The main competitor, Western Digital, has forecasted mid-20s exabyte growth in nearline storage [2] - There is a need for the company to evaluate its own growth projections in relation to Western Digital's forecast [2]

Seagate Technology FY Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Seagate Technology (NasdaqGS: STX) - **Date of Conference**: February 25, 2026 Industry Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The hard disk drive (HDD) market is experiencing growth, with Seagate agreeing with competitor Western Digital's forecast of mid-20s exabyte growth in nearline HDDs over the next three to five years [3][4]. - **Pricing Trends**: HDD pricing has remained stable, with slight increases year-on-year. Seagate expects average prices per terabyte to remain flat to slightly up, consistent with their pricing strategy established three years ago [5][8][14]. Key Points Growth and Demand - **Exabyte Production**: Seagate anticipates a 25% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in exabyte production over the next three to four years, despite challenges in areal density improvements [25][33]. - **Demand vs. Supply**: Demand for HDDs is currently exceeding supply, with all produced units being sold. The company does not foresee a shift to NAND for large-scale data storage, as their infrastructure remains reliant on HDDs [17][23]. Pricing Strategy - **Contract Negotiations**: Seagate's pricing strategy involves consistent price increases during contract renewals, aiming to encourage customers to adopt newer, higher-capacity products [6][10]. - **Long-term Contracts**: The company is discussing pricing and volume agreements for 2026 and beyond, with a focus on maintaining stability in pricing [114][120]. Technology and Production - **HAMR Technology**: Seagate is advancing its Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR) technology, which is expected to improve areal density significantly. However, the current yield rates for HAMR products are not yet at the level of traditional Perpendicular Magnetic Recording (PMR) products [44][47]. - **Production Capacity**: Seagate's factories are currently operating at full capacity, and there are no immediate plans to increase unit production. The focus is on optimizing existing production to meet demand [37][43]. Financial Performance - **Gross Margins**: The company has seen consistent improvements in gross margins over the past 11 quarters, driven by stable pricing and cost reductions associated with higher-capacity drives [73][92]. - **Free Cash Flow**: Seagate plans to return over 75% of free cash flow to shareholders, with a focus on reducing debt, which has decreased from over $6 billion to below $4 billion [92][93]. Competitive Landscape - **Comparison with Western Digital**: Despite Seagate's advancements in HAMR technology, Western Digital currently maintains a slightly higher gross margin. This is attributed to differences in production optimization and product mix [77][82]. - **Market Positioning**: Seagate emphasizes that customers prioritize exabyte capacity and cost efficiency over the specific technology used in HDDs, indicating a strong market demand for larger capacity drives [150][152]. Additional Insights - **AI and Data Storage**: The rise of AI applications is driving demand for data storage, particularly in video AI and autonomous driving, which require significant data retention [125][130]. - **Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)**: The increasing NAND prices are widening the cost gap between HDDs and SSDs, but this is not significantly impacting Seagate's core business, which remains focused on data centers [95][96]. Conclusion Seagate Technology is positioned strongly within the HDD market, with a clear strategy focused on maintaining pricing stability, optimizing production, and leveraging technological advancements to meet growing demand. The company is navigating competitive pressures while ensuring robust returns to shareholders through effective cash flow management.

Remember Daft Punk's "Harder, Better, Faster, Stronger"? The market has focused on the "faster" factor (Nvidia's GPUs, for example), but it also needs "harder" factors: data, storage, and physical capacity. Without those, nothing works. Without Seagate, todayI’m a Portfolio manager (flexible equity funds and private clients), fundamental equity research, macro and geopolitical strategy.Over 10 years across global markets, managing multi-asset strategies and equity portfolios at a European asset manager.I co ...

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach to risk and potential returns [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] Stock Selection Criteria - The investor screens thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, looking for those that have undergone recent sell-offs, particularly when insiders are buying shares at lower prices [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchase shares post-sell-off, adding a layer of due diligence to the investment process [1] Technical Analysis - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts, employing multicolor lines for clarity [1] - Trend lines are drawn in multicolor patterns, indicating a systematic approach to technical analysis [1]

Core Viewpoint - Seagate Technology Holdings plc has successfully completed a privately negotiated exchange of $600 million principal amount of its 3.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2028 for approximately $599.2 million in cash and other considerations [1] Group 1 - The exchange involved Seagate HDD Cayman, a subsidiary of Seagate, indicating a strategic financial maneuver to manage debt obligations [1] - The transaction was finalized on February 19, 2026, highlighting the company's ongoing efforts to optimize its capital structure [1] - The total consideration for the exchange was approximately $599.2 million in cash, reflecting a slight discount from the principal amount of the notes [1]

Company Overview - Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) is a semiconductor designer and enterprise software provider [2] - The company's shares have increased by 42% over the past year but have decreased by 6.5% year-to-date [2] Analyst Coverage - DA Davidson initiated coverage on Broadcom in February, setting a price target of $335 and a Neutral rating [2] - Jefferies maintained a Buy rating with a price target of $500, highlighting Broadcom's strong position in the AI and networking industries [2] Market Dynamics - Broadcom faces tailwinds from the demand for AI chips but may experience limited growth in the market for application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) [2] - ASICs, commonly known as custom AI chips, are a niche market where Broadcom is one of the few players [2] Jim Cramer's Insights - Jim Cramer discussed Broadcom in relation to storage device manufacturers, suggesting that a decline in shortage stocks like Micron and Western Digital could lead to a rally in Broadcom and other semiconductor companies [4] - Cramer expressed a belief that while Broadcom has potential, some AI stocks may offer greater promise for higher returns with limited downside risk [4]

Core Insights - The demand for high-capacity, cost-efficient storage is surging due to the growth of cloud computing, generative AI, video streaming, and connected devices, with Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) leading the market through its Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR) technology [1][2] Group 1: Seagate's Technology and Market Position - Seagate began shipping its first commercial HAMR-based drives in 2023-2024, targeting large hyperscale cloud and enterprise customers, and has accelerated the ramp of these drives to meet AI-driven data storage needs [2] - In 2025, Seagate delivered over 1.5 million HAMR units and secured qualifications with all major U.S. cloud service providers, with global approvals expected by mid-2026 [3] - Seagate's nearline capacity is fully booked through 2026, supported by long-term cloud agreements, providing demand visibility into 2027 and early discussions for 2028 [3] Group 2: Financial Performance and Projections - The ramp of HAMR technology is expected to enhance Seagate's financial profile by expanding margins and improving cost efficiency, with fiscal 2026 capital spending projected to remain within 4-6% of revenues [4] - For the fiscal third quarter, Seagate anticipates revenues of $2.9 billion, representing a 34% increase at the midpoint [4][8] - Seagate's shares have increased by 303.8% over the past year, outperforming the Computer Integrated Systems industry's growth of 84.3% [7] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Western Digital Corporation (WDC) is advancing its own storage technologies, including HAMR and ePMR, and expects fiscal third-quarter revenues of $3.2 billion, up 40% [5] - Micron Technology (MU) is capitalizing on the AI-driven memory and storage markets, with anticipated revenues of $18.7 billion in the fiscal second quarter [6] Group 4: Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Seagate's shares are currently trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 26.27X, higher than the industry's 16.24X [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Seagate's earnings for fiscal 2026 has been revised upward over the past 60 days, indicating positive market sentiment [10]

Core Insights - Seagate Technology Holdings plc reported record financial performance for Q2 2026, with revenues of $2.83 billion, a 7% sequential increase and 22% year-over-year growth [1][10] Revenue Performance - Seagate shipped 190 exabytes in Q2, a 26% increase year-over-year, with the data center segment accounting for 87% of shipment volume [2] - Data center revenues reached $2.2 billion, representing 79% of total revenues, with a 5% sequential increase and 28% year-over-year growth [2][10] Demand and Capacity - Demand remains strong, particularly from cloud customers, with nearline capacity fully allocated through 2026 and visibility extending into 2027 and 2028 [3] - Average nearline capacity increased by 22% year-over-year to nearly 23TB, maintaining steady revenue per terabyte [3] Technology and Innovation - Seagate's Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR) technology is seen as crucial for AI and ML-driven demand for cost-efficient mass-capacity storage [4] - Quarterly HAMR shipments exceeded 1.5 million units, supporting a long-term roadmap toward 10TB-per-disk areal density [4] Future Outlook - For Q3, Seagate expects revenues of approximately $2.9 billion, indicating a 34% year-over-year improvement at the midpoint [5] - Non-GAAP operating margin is projected to increase to around 30% [5] Competitive Landscape - Seagate faces competition from Western Digital and Silicon Motion, with both companies reporting strong revenue growth driven by AI-led demand and long-term contracts [6][7][9] Stock Performance - Seagate's shares have increased by 321.1% over the past year, outperforming the Computer Integrated Systems industry's growth of 90.4% [11] - The forward price/earnings ratio for Seagate is 26.94X, higher than the industry's 16.65X [12] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Seagate's earnings for fiscal 2026 has significantly increased over the past 60 days [13] - Seagate currently holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [14]

Core Insights - Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) has seen a significant stock increase of 30.6% in the past month, outperforming the Zacks Computer-Integrated Systems industry, the Zacks Computer & Technology sector, and the S&P 500, which fell by 0.7%, 4%, and 1.9% respectively [2][9] - The company has outperformed competitors such as Micron Technology (MU) and Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO), which rose by 13.5% and 20.8% respectively, as well as Western Digital Corporation (WDC), which increased by 27.1% [3] Key Catalysts Fueling Growth - The growth of Seagate is driven by booming data storage demand, strong earnings, and margins, particularly in data center markets [5] - Fiscal second-quarter revenues reached $2.83 billion, marking a 22% year-over-year increase, with record margins of 42.2% attributed to high-capacity nearline demand [9][11] - Seagate's strategy focuses on balancing performance with cost efficiency, aligning with the long-term growth of AI-generated data, which is expected to sustain demand [6] Product and Technology Developments - Seagate's HAMR (Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording) technology is seen as a key enabler for AI and machine learning-driven demand for cost-efficient mass-capacity storage [7] - The Mozaic 3 HAMR drives are now qualified with major U.S. cloud providers, with global qualification expected by the first half of 2026 [7] - Quarterly HAMR shipments have exceeded 1.5 million units, supporting a roadmap toward achieving 10TB-per-disk areal density [7] Financial Performance and Projections - Data center revenue rose by 28% year-over-year to $2.2 billion, constituting 79% of total sales, driven by cloud demand and a recovering enterprise OEM market [13] - The edge IoT segment generated $601 million, accounting for 21% of revenue, with a 2% year-over-year increase [14] - For the fiscal third quarter, Seagate expects revenues of approximately $2.9 billion, indicating a 34% year-over-year improvement [14] Estimate Revisions and Valuation - Earnings estimates for fiscal 2026 have increased by 11.8% to $12.63, while estimates for fiscal 2027 have risen by 29.7% to $18.89 [18] - The company's shares currently trade at a price/earnings ratio of 26.97 for forward earnings, compared to 16.66 for the industry [19] Investment Considerations - Seagate's recent stock rally reflects strong earnings momentum and growing investor confidence in data storage, particularly in AI infrastructure [20][21] - The company is positioned to create long-term value for customers and shareholders, with expectations of sequential revenue and profit growth through 2026 [15]

Core Viewpoint - Seagate Technology's stock has significantly outperformed the S&P 500, with a year-to-date increase of 56.6% through February 12, 2026, and a remarkable 335% rise over the past year, driven by strong earnings and a shift towards AI infrastructure demand [1]. Financial Performance - Seagate reported $2.83 billion in revenue for the January 27 earnings report, exceeding estimates of $2.76 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 21.7% [1]. - The company achieved a non-GAAP EPS of $3.11, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.84 by 9.5%, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of positive earnings surprises [1]. - Seagate's gross margin reached a record 42.2%, and the operating margin was 31.9%, with free cash flow increasing by 305% year-over-year to $607 million [1]. Market Position and Strategy - Seagate's business model has shifted fundamentally, with its HAMR-based Mozaic products now qualified with five major cloud customers, positioning the company to capture AI-driven storage demand [1]. - The CEO highlighted the opportunity in the data center infrastructure market, which is expected to represent a multi-trillion-dollar modernization cycle through 2030 [1]. - Seagate's leadership in areal density through HAMR technology provides a structural advantage as data centers seek performance and cost-efficiency [1]. Analyst Outlook - Management's Q3 guidance anticipates $2.90 billion in revenue and $3.47 EPS, indicating continued growth [1]. - Analysts have set a price target of $467.67 for Seagate's stock, approximately 8% above current levels, with 19 buy or strong buy ratings compared to just one sell [1]. - Seagate's valuation reflects optimism, trading at 33x forward earnings with a PEG ratio of 0.91, suggesting that the market believes in the sustainability of earnings growth [1].