分享 reface 前⾔ at if our AI bullishness continues to be right...and what if that's actually bearish? 果我们的对 AI 的乐观持续正确……而这反而成了利空，会怎样？ at follows is a scenario, not a prediction. This isn't bear porn or AI doomer fan-fiction. e sole intent of this piece is modeling a scenario that's been relatively underexplored. Our nd Alap Shah posed the question, and together we brainstormed the answer. We wrote this t, and he's written two others you can find here. 下情景为设想，而非预测。这并非唱空轰动或人工智能末日主义同人文。本文唯一 的，是对一个相对较少被探讨的情景进行建模。我 ...

Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is projected to reach one trillion dollars in revenue by 2026, representing a 29% year-on-year growth, with continued double-digit expansion expected in 2027 [1] - The shift from AI training investments to inferencing is driving growth in the chip sector, as noted by Wells Fargo's senior equity analyst Aaron Rakers [1] Company Insights - TSM's strong quarterly results indicate broad-based strength in AI chips, reinforcing a bullish outlook on companies like AMD, Nvidia, and Broadcom [2] - Broadcom is diversifying its AI business, while Nvidia is expected to perform well in the upcoming cycle, positioning both as differentiated platform providers [3] Hedge Fund Interest - The strategy of imitating top stock picks from hedge funds has shown to outperform the market, with a quarterly newsletter returning 427.7% since May 2014, significantly beating its benchmark [4] Specific Company Analysis: HP Inc. (NYSE:HPQ) - HP Inc. has 42 hedge fund holders, but Barclays downgraded the stock to "Underweight" due to secular challenges in its PC and printing businesses, lowering the price target from $24.00 to $18.00 [6][7] - Despite a consensus "Buy" rating on HPQ, analysts expect continued pressure on the stock in 2026 due to the current memory cycle affecting its PC business, which is approximately 30% consumer-focused [8] Specific Company Analysis: Dell Technologies Inc. (NYSE:DELL) - Dell has 51 hedge fund holders and was upgraded to "Overweight" by Barclays, maintaining a price target of $148, driven by AI server momentum and enterprise recovery [10][12] - Dell is expected to ship $9.4 billion of AI servers in Q4, raising full-year shipments to $25 billion, with projected growth of 155% and 60% in AI orders for fiscal years 2026 and 2027, respectively [13] Specific Company Analysis: Atlassian Corporation (NASDAQ:TEAM) - Atlassian has 60 hedge fund holders, and analysts reiterated a "Buy" rating with a price target of $220.00 following a 15% price increase on Data Center subscriptions effective February 17, 2026 [15][16] - The company is transitioning customers to its Cloud services, with positive responses to its Ascend program leading to an increased FY26 Cloud revenue growth outlook [17]

Group 1 - Micron Technology is in high demand due to its memory technology being essential for various AI applications [1] - The focus is on identifying high-quality companies that can reinvest capital for significant returns, aiming for a long-term capital compounding capability [1] - A conservative investment strategy is primarily adopted, with occasional pursuit of favorable risk-reward opportunities to maintain portfolio stability [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of a long-term perspective in investing, suggesting it may yield higher returns compared to short-term holdings [1]

Group 1 - Micron Technology is in high demand due to its memory technology being essential for various AI applications [1] - The focus is on identifying high-quality companies that can reinvest capital for significant returns, aiming for a long-term capital compounding capability [1] - A conservative investment strategy is primarily adopted, with occasional pursuit of favorable risk-reward opportunities to maintain portfolio stability [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of a long-term perspective in investing, suggesting it may yield higher returns compared to short-term holdings [1]

Core Viewpoint - Seagate Technology Holdings plc (NASDAQ:STX) is experiencing significant upward momentum in its stock price due to high demand for storage devices, despite being categorized as a non-growth company [2]. Company Overview - Seagate Technology specializes in manufacturing and selling storage devices for personal and enterprise computing systems [2]. - The company has seen remarkable gains, positioning it among the biggest gainers in the S&P [2]. Market Dynamics - The current demand for storage is attributed to the resurgence of PCs, data centers, and enterprise racks, which were previously considered stagnant [2]. - There is a noted shortage in the market that has contributed to the increased demand for Seagate's products [2]. Investment Perspective - While Seagate shows potential as an investment, there is a belief that certain AI stocks may offer better returns with lower risk [2].

Group 1 - Amazon's capital expenditures (CapEx) are expected to continue rising, with current analyst expectations deemed too low compared to peers like Meta [1][2] - Analysts predict that Amazon's CapEx growth will be in the high single digits, which is significantly lower than the expected 30-40% growth for Meta [2] - Mairs & Power Balanced Fund initiated a new position in Amazon, citing its strong market position in retail and cloud services, taking advantage of stock weakness in April [3] Group 2 - The Fund believes that while Amazon has potential, some AI stocks may offer higher returns with limited downside risk [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a bearish outlook on Navitas Semiconductor (NASDAQ: NVTS), indicating a rare decision to short the stock based on perceived weaknesses in its performance and potential risks in the semiconductor industry [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The author typically manages a family portfolio with a generalist approach, focusing on sectors with alpha potential compared to the S&P 500 [1]. - The holding period for investments generally ranges from a few quarters to multiple years, emphasizing a long-term perspective [1]. Group 2: Research Methodology - Comprehensive spreadsheets are maintained to track historical financial data, key metrics, guidance trends, and valuation comparisons with peers [1]. - The analysis includes monitoring industry news, reports, and other analysts' coverage, particularly during significant events like CEO changes [1]. - The author prefers not to build discounted cash flow (DCF) models for long-term projections, instead focusing on the company's historical performance and key drivers of valuation [1].

Group 1 - Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) experienced a significant increase in its share price following the announcement that it will supply 10 GW of Artificial Intelligence chips to OpenAI [1] - The focus of Cash Flow Club is on businesses with strong cash generation, ideally those with a wide moat and significant durability, which can lead to high rewards when acquired at the right time [1] Group 2 - The Cash Flow Club offers features such as access to a leader's personal income portfolio targeting yields of over 6%, community chat, a "Best Opportunities" List, and coverage of various sectors including energy midstream, commercial mREITs, BDCs, and shipping [1]

Core Viewpoint - Intel Corporation has been downgraded by Citi from "Neutral" to "Sell" due to concerns over its valuation and the likelihood of success in its foundry business, despite a recent partnership with Nvidia [1][4]. Group 1: Downgrade and Valuation - Citi raised Intel's price target from $24 to $29 but downgraded the stock, indicating that the current price reflects an assumption of a complete turnaround in the company's fortunes [1][4]. - Analyst Christopher Danely believes that Intel's stock has rallied to levels that assume success in its foundry business, which he considers highly unlikely [2][4]. Group 2: Foundry Business Concerns - Danely has expressed skepticism about Intel's foundry unit's ability to compete effectively with established players like TSMC, suggesting that the partnership with Nvidia may only provide a temporary boost [3][4]. - The uncertainty surrounding the foundry business leads to a perception of greater risk than reward at the current stock price [4]. Group 3: Investment Alternatives - While acknowledging Intel's potential as an investment, there are other AI stocks that are perceived to offer greater upside potential and less downside risk [5].

Core Insights - ASML Holding N.V. has faced significant challenges since the last coverage in October of the previous year [1] Company Overview - ASML is a long-term investment option, appealing to investors with a 5-10 year horizon [1] - The investment strategy typically includes a mix of growth, value, and dividend-paying stocks, with a focus on value [1] Investment Position - The analyst holds a beneficial long position in ASML shares, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [2]