所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-04-07 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 农产品 | ★★★★ | 农产品：此次美国对全球加征对等关税是历史性的大事件;加征幅度超预期;各国大概率会不同 程度反制，不确定性极高。由于这一次是对全球加征关税，因此不能完全用 2018 年的思路 去看待。农产品方面,美国大豆、玉米和棉花出口占全球出口份额比较高，大豆 27%、玉米 33%、棉花 26%，美国出口下降预期已经推高巴西现货升水，对销区的成本上升的影响较大， 且大概率是持续性的影响。大豆方面，虽然榨利较高，但是下游仍有养殖利润，承接力度较 强，囤库意愿较高。风险:全球高关税带来的经济衰退预期。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 短线或继续大跌，长线关注超跌反弹机会 观点分享： 外盘油价较上周五累计暴跌近 14%，内盘跌停概率较大。短期市场极度恐慌，其中 Brent 或继续交易衰退考验 55 美元/桶，中长期关注企稳筑底后的多配机会。理由：第一， 短期看，市场交易主要大国、经济体之间关税互征引发的通缩，恐慌情绪 ...

Group 1: Tariff Measures - The Chinese government announced a 34% tariff on all imported goods originating from the United States, effective from April 10, 2025, at 12:01 PM [2][4] - Existing tax exemption policies remain unchanged, and the newly imposed tariffs will not be eligible for reduction or exemption [3] - Goods that have already been shipped before April 10, 2025, will not be subject to the new tariffs if they arrive between April 10, 2025, and May 13, 2025 [4] Group 2: Export Controls - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export controls on seven categories of medium and heavy rare earth materials, effective immediately [6] - The export control measures aim to safeguard national security and fulfill international obligations, reflecting China's commitment to maintaining global peace and regional stability [6] - The Ministry of Commerce has placed 16 U.S. entities under export control, prohibiting the export of dual-use items to these entities due to potential threats to China's national security [8] Group 3: Unreliable Entity List - The Ministry of Commerce has added 11 U.S. companies, including Skydio Inc., to the unreliable entity list, prohibiting them from engaging in import and export activities related to China [10][14] - These companies are restricted from making new investments in China, as part of measures to protect national sovereignty and security [11][12] Group 4: WTO Dispute - China has filed a lawsuit with the World Trade Organization (WTO) against the U.S. for imposing "reciprocal tariffs," arguing that such actions violate international trade rules and harm legitimate rights of WTO members [15][16]