Core Insights - Recent declines in U.S. stocks are concerning as they contradict the historical Santa Claus rally, yet major indexes posted solid gains in 2025 despite an April sell-off due to tariff declarations by President Trump [2] - The "January Effect" is expected to boost stock prices as investors reinvest year-end bonuses and engage in tax-loss harvesting, leading to renewed buying in the markets [3] Company Insights NVIDIA - NVIDIA is positioned for strong growth driven by demand for AI hardware and easing U.S.-China trade tensions, with projected fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 revenues around $65 billion [5][7] - The expected earnings growth rate for NVIDIA is 55.9%, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share (EPS) at $4.66, reflecting a 12% year-over-year increase [8] Micron Technology - Micron's high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips are in continuous demand, expected to drive growth in fiscal second-quarter 2026 revenues between $18.3 billion and $19.1 billion [11][12] - The projected earnings growth rate for Micron is 278.3%, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS at $31.36, indicating a 185.9% year-over-year increase [13] Palantir Technologies - Palantir is set for growth due to the increasing adoption of its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) among U.S. government and commercial clients, projecting total revenues for 2025 between $4.396 billion and $4.400 billion [15][16] - The expected earnings growth rate for Palantir is 42.5%, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS at $0.73, reflecting a 52.1% year-over-year increase [17]

Market Overview - Year-to-date, Wall Street is performing decently with the S&P 500 Index up approximately 16.2% in 2025 [1] - The Santa Claus Rally, historically observed from December 15 to January 5, has already begun, although Wall Street has faced a recent slump with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) down 0.7% over the past five days due to less-dovish signals from the Fed and AI overvaluation concerns [2] Historical Performance - The Santa Claus Rally has historically yielded positive returns about 80% of the time, with the S&P 500 averaging a gain of approximately 1.3% during this seven-day period [3] - Since 1928, the S&P 500 has shown positive returns in December 74% of the time, making it the month with the highest frequency of positive returns [5] Factors Influencing the Rally - Investor optimism, institutional activity, and tax considerations are key factors contributing to the equity rally during the holiday season [4] - There is optimism surrounding a resilient economy, with strong corporate profits and seasonal tailwinds expected to facilitate a modest Santa Rally this year [7] Economic Indicators - Softer inflation in November, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.7% year-over-year, below the forecasted 3.1%, is seen as a positive development for investors [8] Company-Specific Insights - Micron (MU) shares surged post-earnings due to high demand for AI memory, with expectations that the total addressable market for high-bandwidth memory will reach $100 billion by 2028, growing at a 40% compounded annual growth rate [9] - Despite concerns in the AI sector, investors have invested about $100 billion into U.S. stocks over the past nine weeks, indicating a strong trend of inflows throughout 2025 [10] ETFs to Watch - The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS), which includes major tech companies, is positioned well due to strong demand for AI [12] - The State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) is benefiting from high metal prices and strong demand, with a 1.9% increase last week [13] - The U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) gained about 1% last week, supported by expected record travel during the holiday season [14] - The iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is performing well due to increased military spending and geopolitical tensions, with a 1.6% increase last week [15]