Q4 earnings season is in full swing, as more than half of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings results. Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 79% of the 293 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.The marke ...

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a record high of 49,368 before easing to 49,221.89, reflecting a modest pullback of 240 points or 0.49% [1][2] - The S&P 500 hovered near its record territory at 6,937.81, down 0.10%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.13% to 23,578.05, indicating resilience across major indexes [2][1] Economic Indicators - The Institute for Supply Management reported a services index of 54.4% in December, the highest level of the year, indicating steady momentum in the U.S. economy [5] - The ISM prices index fell to 64.3%, the lowest since March 2025, suggesting cooling inflation without hindering growth, which historically supports equity valuations [6] - Job openings decreased to 7.15 million in November, the lowest in over a year, while private payroll data showed an addition of 41,000 jobs in December, slightly below forecasts [7][8] Energy Sector Developments - Venezuela's interim authorities plan to transfer approximately 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., which is expected to stabilize the region and integrate Venezuela back into the global economy [9][19] - The influx of Venezuelan oil has softened crude prices, initially raising concerns about a glut but ultimately benefiting American refining companies like Valero Energy and Marathon Petroleum, whose shares rose by 4% and 2% respectively [10][19] - Analysts suggest that harmonizing the energy network in the Western hemisphere could enhance U.S. energy security for the decade [11] Geopolitical Context - The U.S. military action involving Venezuela has had limited immediate impact on oil supply, with investors focusing more on fundamentals than headlines [3] - Ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel remain a critical factor for global stability, but recent diplomatic efforts have eased tensions, allowing for open shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf [13][14] - The current market reaction indicates a gap between perceived "headline risk" and actual market performance, with investors prioritizing stability for sustained growth [14][15]

Economic Overview - A significant amount of delayed economic data is expected to provide insights into the US labor market and the broader economy, with key releases including jobs numbers and inflation figures from various countries [1][10] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to present higher growth forecasts, which may support the current rate hold since May, with a focus on potential future tightening [3][20] - The Bank of England (BOE) is likely to reduce borrowing costs, which could signal the end of the current monetary policy cycle [4][18] Central Bank Actions - Several central banks, including those in Mexico and Thailand, are expected to continue easing cycles, while the Bank of Japan is widely anticipated to increase rates [2][13] - The Federal Reserve's recent quarter-point cut has contributed to a cloudy outlook for further reductions, with the global economy showing resilience against US tariffs [5][6] - The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain steady rates unless there are significant changes in inflation and growth outlooks [11] Labor Market Insights - The upcoming November jobs report is projected to show a 50,000 increase in payrolls and a 4.5% unemployment rate, indicating a sluggish labor market [7] - Delays in data collection due to the government shutdown have affected the release of October payrolls and unemployment rates [8] Inflation and Consumer Prices - The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to show no monthly changes in most categories, reflecting the impact of the government shutdown on data collection [9][10] - Canadian inflation is likely to remain close to the 2% target, with core metrics indicating underlying price pressures around 2.5% [11] Regional Economic Data - In Asia, Japan's Tankan survey is expected to show improved business sentiment, supporting a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan [12][13] - China is anticipated to report a significant decline in fixed-asset investment and weak growth in retail sales and industrial output [15] - Brazil's GDP-proxy data will be closely monitored as it reflects the economy's performance amid tight financial conditions [25]

Summary of AssetMark Financial (AMK) Update / Briefing July 24, 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: AssetMark Financial (AMK) - **Industry**: Financial Services, specifically focused on investment management for financial advisers - **Assets Under Management**: Approximately $150 billion for clients across the country [2] Key Points and Arguments Market Performance - **Market Recovery**: Despite a market downturn in early 2025, the S&P 500 recovered and set new highs, increasing by over 25% after a nearly 20% drop [12][13] - **Retail Investment**: Retail investors contributed significantly, with $155 billion invested in the US stock market in the first half of 2025 [14] - **Corporate Buybacks**: Companies engaged in record stock buybacks, taking advantage of lower stock prices due to tariff uncertainties [15] - **International vs. US Stocks**: International markets outperformed US markets for the first time in 15 years, aided by a weakening US dollar [16] Economic Indicators - **US Dollar Weakness**: The US dollar had its worst start to a year in 2025, benefiting international investments as other currencies appreciated [16] - **Gold Performance**: Gold prices rose by 25% due to its inverse relationship with the dollar and increased demand from global central banks [17][18] - **Diversification Importance**: The first half of 2025 highlighted the need for diversification in investment portfolios [19] Economic Policies and Tariffs - **Administration Policies**: Current policies are seen as pro-growth but also pro-inflation, with a focus on tax cuts and deregulation expected to support markets [22][25] - **Tariff Impact**: The average effective tariff rate started at 2.5% in 2025, with potential increases causing market nervousness. However, a steady high tariff policy is deemed manageable for the US economy [26][29] - **Economic Growth Expectations**: The economy is expected to rebound in the second quarter of 2025, with growth projected around 2.5% [32] Inflation and Interest Rates - **Current Inflation Rate**: The latest inflation reading is at 2.7%, with tariffs contributing to rising prices in goods [44] - **Interest Rate Outlook**: If inflation rises, the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, maintaining a floor on how low rates can go [49][55] Tax Bill Implications - **Deficit Concerns**: The US deficit is projected to rise significantly due to the new tax bill, which makes 2017 tax cuts permanent and introduces temporary tax breaks [51][55] - **Market Reactions**: The tax bill reduces uncertainty around tax policy and the debt ceiling, positively impacting market sentiment [52][54] Investment Strategies - **Technology and AI**: The rapid advancement of technology, particularly AI, presents significant investment opportunities, although the top 10 tech stocks dominate the S&P 500 [73][74] - **Diversification Strategy**: Investors are encouraged to diversify within the US and consider international markets, especially given the weaker dollar [78][80] - **Gold as a Diversification Tool**: Gold is recommended for portfolio diversification, but its volatility should be considered [85] Other Important Insights - **Volatility and Market Corrections**: Historical data shows that market corrections are normal and necessary for healthy long-term growth [86] - **Consumer Spending**: The US consumer remains a key driver of the economy, with stable job markets and rising wages, albeit at a slower pace [35][39] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the AssetMark Financial briefing, highlighting the company's perspective on market trends, economic indicators, and investment strategies for the remainder of 2025.