Management attributes the resilience of the frozen food category to its ability to outpace overall food growth in key markets like Italy and Germany.Growth in the potato category is expected to serve as a partial offset to volume pressures in other segments.The company is shifting its strategic focus toward 'point-of-sale disruption,' utilizing superior packaging and more aggressive in-store animation to differentiate from private label and branded competitors.Cost inflation in the Fish category is necessit ...

Nomad Foods (NYSE:NOMD) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 26, 2026 08:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsDominic Brisby - CEOJason English - Head of Investor Relations and Corporate StrategyJohn Baumgartner - Managing DirectorJon Tanwanteng - Managing DirectorRuben Baldew - CFOOperatorGreetings, everyone, welcome to the Nomad Foods fourth quarter of 2025 Q&A conference call. Please be aware that today's event is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the floor over to your host, English, Head of Investor Relations. Pl ...

February 26, 2026 FOURTH QUARTER 2025 Earnings Results 2 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Highlights • Delivered full year results in-line with the guidance issued in August. • Organic revenue declines moderated in 4Q, relative to 3Q, despite a more challenging year ago comparison. Organic revenue fell 1.3% YoY with volume down 1.1%. • Gross margin declines sequentially decelerated in 4Q, relative to 3Q, as mix improved and productivity gains continued. • Retail sell-out accelerated in the quarter to +0.7% with ...

Core Thesis - Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD) is viewed as undervalued despite recent operational challenges, with a current share price of $12.28 and a trailing P/E of 8.17, indicating potential for upside if sentiment improves [1][3][4]. Company Overview - Nomad Foods Limited manufactures and distributes frozen food products in the UK and internationally, holding a leading position in the European frozen food market with brands like Iglo, Birds Eye, and Findus [3][4]. Market Sentiment - The stock has declined approximately 35% year-to-date and nearly 50% over the past five years, leading to a perception of the company as fundamentally flawed [3][4]. Valuation - The company trades at a discounted 2025 P/E of about 8–8.6x, typically associated with businesses in structural decline rather than facing temporary operational issues [4]. Operational Challenges - A 1.6% decline in organic revenue in Q3 2025 has contributed to negative sentiment, primarily due to a poorly executed SAP/ERP migration that disrupted supply chains and promotional activities [5][6]. Shareholder Returns - Management has been proactive in returning capital to shareholders, doubling the share buyback program to €151.4 million in the first nine months of 2025, while maintaining a dividend yield of approximately 5.4% [6]. Financial Flexibility - Concerns regarding leverage have diminished following a refinancing in October 2025, extending debt maturities to 2032 and providing flexibility to manage inflationary pressures [7]. Competitive Landscape - The key debate revolves around whether private-label competition and changing consumer behavior, influenced by GLP-1 drugs, are lasting challenges or temporary fears [7]. Historical Context - Previous analyses highlighted NOMD's undervaluation and shareholder-friendly practices, with the stock price depreciating by about 37.41% since earlier coverage due to operational disruptions [8].

Core Viewpoint - Douglas Lane & Associates sold 65,461 shares of Lamb Weston Holdings for an estimated $3.85 million, reflecting a strategic move in response to market conditions and portfolio management [2][3][11] Company Overview - Lamb Weston Holdings generates revenue primarily through sales of frozen potato products, with a total revenue of $6.47 billion and a net income of $392.30 million [5][9] - The company has a dividend yield of 3.5% and its shares were priced at $44.32 as of January 21, 2026 [5] Recent Performance - In the latest quarter, Lamb Weston reported a 1% year-over-year increase in net sales to $1.62 billion, with net income turning positive at $62.1 million compared to a loss of $36.1 million a year earlier [11] - The company reiterated its full-year guidance, targeting sales between $6.35 billion and $6.55 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of up to $1.20 billion, alongside a 3% increase in quarterly dividends [11] Market Position - As of January 21, shares of Lamb Weston were down 27.5% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 by 41.14 percentage points [4][11] - The decline in share price is attributed to pricing pressure, customer concessions, and uneven international utilization, impacting market sentiment [12] Holdings and Transactions - Following the sale, Douglas Lane held 1,213,884 shares of Lamb Weston valued at $50.85 million, with the position's value decreasing by $23.45 million over the period due to both sales and price changes [3][7]

Core Insights - The U.S. frozen food market is valued at $93.5 billion and is being shaped by four key themes: protein-packed meals, restaurant-inspired favorites, family-style solutions, and all-day breakfast [1][2] Group 1: Emerging Trends - Protein remains the most influential nutrition attribute, with high-protein frozen foods generating $12 billion annually and growing at double-digit volume rates [5] - "Takeout-style" frozen foods total $14.3 billion in annual sales, driven by younger generations and families seeking restaurant-quality taste and convenience [5] - Multi-serve meals and frozen sides account for approximately $12 billion in sales, with value-size frozen products making up over 40% of frozen aisle sales [5] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly relying on frozen foods to meet daily protein needs, with frozen meals averaging high protein levels per serving [5] - The trend of recreating restaurant experiences at home is growing, particularly as dining out becomes more expensive [5] - Breakfast items are being consumed throughout the day, with high-protein, ready-to-heat formats gaining popularity among Gen Z and Millennials [5]

Market Overview - Major indexes closed higher on Thursday, influenced by a -40 basis-point decline in the Inflation Rate from the CPI report, marking the first decline since early this year [1] - Pre-market futures are fluctuating, with the Dow down 7 points, S&P 500 up 6 points, Nasdaq up 56 points, and Russell 2000 up 6 points [2] - The day is characterized as Quadruple Witching, which may lead to increased volatility due to the expiration of futures and options [2] Santa Claus Rally Potential - Despite recent gains, indexes are down over the past week, with concerns about AI infrastructure spending affecting tech stocks [3] - The "Santa Claus Rally" typically occurs in the last trading days of the year, often correcting earlier trading discrepancies and looking forward to new year opportunities [4] - Current market conditions suggest a favorable environment for a potential Santa Claus Rally [4] Earnings Reports - Nike (NKE) and FedEx (FDX) reported better-than-expected earnings but saw stock declines due to external challenges, including weakness in China and tariff impacts [5] - Winnebago (WGO) surprised with a +216% positive earnings surprise, reporting $0.38 per share and $702.7 million in revenues, leading to a 16% increase in shares [6] - Lamb Weston (LW) beat earnings estimates but faced a 15% drop in shares due to flat sales in North America and uncertainties from international acquisitions [8] - Conagra (CAG) reported earnings slightly above estimates but is down marginally after a significant year-to-date decline of 35% [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Second quarter net sales increased by 1%, with a $24 million benefit from foreign currency translation, while on a constant currency basis, net sales were essentially flat compared to last year [14] - Volume rose by 8% in the second quarter, driven by customer wins and share gains, despite softer restaurant traffic [14] - Adjusted EBITDA declined by $9 million year-over-year to $286 million, primarily due to unfavorable Price/Mix [17] - Adjusted Gross Profit decreased by $16 million year-over-year, mainly due to unfavorable Price/Mix [17] - Free cash flow was strong at $375 million, with capital expenditures down to $156 million in the first half, reflecting disciplined investment [22][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America segment net sales were essentially flat compared to the prior year, with volume increasing by 8% supported by recent customer contract wins [15] - International segment net sales increased by 4%, including a favorable foreign currency impact of $23 million, but declined by 1% on a constant currency basis [15][16] - Adjusted EBITDA in the North America segment increased by 7% to $288 million, reflecting strong execution and higher sales volume [20] - Adjusted EBITDA in the International segment declined by $21 million to $27 million, impacted by price and trade to support customers and higher manufacturing costs [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In North America, QSR traffic was flat, with QSR chicken growing while QSR burger traffic was down by 3% [14] - Internationally, restaurant traffic in most markets declined, including a 3% decrease in the U.K., the largest international market [14] - Asia, including China, led volume growth in the quarter, with growth also seen with multinational chain customers [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is executing its "Focus to Win" strategy, focusing on strengthening customer partnerships and driving cost savings [4][7] - The company is reopening previously curtailed capacity in North America to meet customer demand and maintain high fill rates [4][9] - The company is building a culture of continuous improvement and reducing volatility through customer contracting and raw procurement strategies [5][6] - The company is investing in innovation, including the launch of new products like Snap Fries, to capture additional market opportunities [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged a dynamic macroeconomic and competitive environment, particularly in international markets, but expressed confidence in long-term profitable growth [6][24] - The company expects continued volume growth and strong sales momentum for the remainder of the fiscal year, particularly in North America [24] - Price/Mix is anticipated to remain unfavorable in the second half, but to a lesser extent than in the first half [24][25] - Management remains committed to returning cash to shareholders, with a 3% increase in the quarterly dividend [7][23] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with approximately $1.43 billion of liquidity, including $1.35 billion available under its revolving credit facility [22] - The company has repurchased $40 million of shares during the second quarter and has $308 million remaining under its current repurchase authorization [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding rebalancing supply and demand in Europe - Management confirmed that they are curtailing a single line in the European market while reopening curtailed lines in North America due to strong volume [33] Question: On North America volume drivers and seasonal uptick - Management indicated that the mix shift towards private label and multinational chain customers will continue to affect gross margins in the back half of the year [36] Question: Update on Asia export markets and competition - Management acknowledged increased competition in Asia but expressed confidence in future growth due to strong customer support [42] Question: Clarification on gross margin expectations for the second half - Management confirmed that gross margins are expected to be flat to down in the second half, primarily due to mix shifts and ramp-up costs in Argentina [46] Question: Impact of reopening capacity in North America - Management stated that reopening additional capacity is necessary to meet customer expectations and will not negatively impact profitability [57] Question: Capital allocation and share repurchases - Management reiterated their commitment to capital allocation priorities, including opportunistic share repurchases while investing in the business [110]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the second quarter, net sales increased by 1%, with a $24 million benefit from foreign currency translation, while on a constant currency basis, net sales were essentially flat compared to last year [14] - Volume rose by 8%, driven by customer wins and share gains, despite softer restaurant traffic [14] - Adjusted EBITDA declined by $9 million year-over-year to $286 million, while adjusted gross profit decreased by $16 million primarily due to unfavorable price mix [17][18] - Free Cash Flow was strong at $375 million, with capital expenditures down to $156 million in the first half, reflecting disciplined investment [22][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America net sales were essentially flat year-over-year, with an 8% increase in volume supported by recent customer contract wins [15] - International segment net sales increased by 4%, but declined by 1% on a constant currency basis, with volume growth of 7% [15][16] - Adjusted EBITDA in North America increased by 7% to $288 million, while the international segment's adjusted EBITDA declined to $27 million due to pricing pressures and higher manufacturing costs [19][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In North America, QSR traffic was flat, with QSR chicken growing while QSR burger traffic declined by 3% [14] - Internationally, restaurant traffic in most markets declined, including a 3% drop in the U.K., the largest international market [14] - Asia, including China, led volume growth in the quarter, with multinational chain customers also contributing to growth [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is executing its "Focus to Win" strategy, focusing on strengthening customer partnerships and driving cost savings [4][6] - The company is reopening previously curtailed capacity in North America to meet customer demand and maintain high fill rates [4][9] - The company is building a culture of continuous improvement and reducing volatility through customer contracting and raw procurement strategies [5] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a dynamic macroeconomic and competitive environment, particularly in international markets, but expressed confidence in their plans to control controllables for long-term growth [5][6] - The company expects continued volume growth and strong sales momentum for the second half of the fiscal year, with North America volumes expected to grow at or above first-half rates [24] - Price mix is anticipated to remain unfavorable in the second half, but to a lesser extent than the first half [25] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $40 million of shares during the second quarter and announced a 3% increase in the quarterly dividend [6][23] - The company is actively working to rebalance supply and demand within its network, ensuring the right assets are in place to serve priority markets [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding rebalancing supply and demand in Europe - Management confirmed that they are curtailing a single line in Europe and are looking across the global supply chain to balance supply and demand [28][29] Question: Volume drivers in North America for the back half of the year - Management indicated that a significant component of volume growth is driven by a higher proportion of business with multinational chain customers and a shift from branded to private label [30][31] Question: Update on international markets, particularly Asia - Management acknowledged increased competition in Asia but expressed confidence in future growth, particularly in Latin America [32][33] Question: Gross margin expectations for the second half - Management clarified that gross margins are expected to be flat to down in the second half, primarily due to mixed shifts and pricing headwinds [34][35] Question: Capacity decisions in North America - Management explained that high utilization rates necessitated reopening additional capacity to meet customer expectations, with no expected negative impact on profitability [39][40] Question: Execution improvements and metrics - Management highlighted the implementation of clear accountabilities and KPIs across the supply chain to enhance execution and predictability [42][43] Question: Capital allocation and share repurchases - Management reiterated their commitment to disciplined capital allocation, including opportunistic share repurchases while investing in business capabilities [61]

Core Insights - Nomad Foods is recognized as Europe's largest frozen food company, holding a market share of nearly 20% [1] - The company operates in 22 markets and is headquartered in the UK [1] Company Overview - Nomad Foods specializes in frozen food products, indicating a strong presence in the food industry [1] - The company's strategy focuses on identifying undervalued stocks with potential for high returns while managing risks effectively [1]