Core Insights - The discussion revolves around the increasing relevance of prediction markets in providing reliable information amidst a landscape of misinformation and uncertainty [3][4][22] - Prediction markets are posited as more accurate than traditional polling methods, particularly in forecasting election outcomes [4][19][22] - Concerns about market manipulation and insider trading are highlighted, indicating potential flaws in the reliability of prediction markets [5][21][23] Prediction Markets Overview - Companies like Cal Poly Market position themselves as trustworthy sources of truth in a world filled with misinformation [3] - Prediction markets have shown high accuracy in predicting election outcomes, especially for major races, outperforming traditional polls [4][19] - The accuracy of prediction markets is attributed to their method of aggregating information based on financial stakes rather than personal opinions [18][19] Market Regulation and Oversight - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates prediction markets in the U.S., overseeing what contracts are permissible [9][23] - There is an ongoing debate about whether prediction markets should be classified as gambling, which would subject them to stricter regulations and taxation [24] - Current taxation for earnings from prediction markets is treated as regular income, unlike traditional gambling platforms [24] Market Dynamics and User Experience - KALSI operates under U.S. regulations, while Poly Market primarily functions overseas, leading to differences in market offerings and regulatory oversight [9][14] - The user interface of prediction markets is noted to be simpler and more user-friendly compared to traditional sports betting platforms, attracting users [15] - A significant portion of KALSI's activity is focused on sports betting, while Poly Market's U.S. operations are entirely sports-related [14] Case Studies and Examples - An example is provided where traders on Poly Market closely monitored a speech by Jerome Powell, demonstrating how specific words can influence market behavior [26][28] - The incident illustrates the challenges in determining factual outcomes in prediction markets, highlighting the potential for ambiguity [28]

Six Democratic senators are demanding CFTC Chairman Michael Selig ban prediction market contracts that resolve on someone dying, a city being captured or a NASA rocket exploding.The letter, led by Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), goes further than just the three examples. The senators are asking the CFTC to reiterate that contracts involving gaming, sports, war, terrorism, assassination or similar activities are barred from being listed, traded or cleared under the Commodity Exchange Act. They also want CFTC Ch ...

When Robert DeNault joined Kalshi’s four-person legal team in October, it was under the assumption that his background investigating white collar crimes could come in handy.  Now serving as the prediction market’s head of enforcement, the former associate at law firm White & Case told Decrypt that Kalshi is preparing to disclose a wave of disciplinary actions that have been taken against users—the result of a monthslong effort to clean up a “backlog” of potential trading violations. “It’s taken a big chunk ...

Prediction markets have driven a lot of attention. These platforms allow prospective investors and speculators to trade on the outcomes of real-world events ranging from sporting events to elections to even weather-related events. One of the more prominent prediction market has become Kalshi. Although some analysts worry it blurs the line between investing and gambling, it has become highly successful. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stoc ...

See Also: You Saved for Retirement — But Do You Know What You'll Keep After Taxes?"If we can make it work, it’s much more sustainable than the status quo, because both sides of the equation are likely to be long-term happy with the product that they are buying, and very large volumes of sophisticated capital will be willing to participate," he said.Buterin said that for the idea to work, prediction markets have to use yield-bearing assets so that people are comfortable holding them. He listed Ethereum as an ...

The Netherlands Gambling Authority has moved against prediction markets platform Polymarket, ordering its Dutch affiliate, Adventure One, to stop offering wagering services to residents without a permit. Key Takeaways: Dutch regulators ordered Polymarket’s affiliate to halt operations for offering unlicensed betting to residents. Authorities said prediction market wagers are illegal in the Netherlands, even for licensed gambling operators. The case reflects wider global regulatory pressure on event-b ...

A new working paper from Fed economists, alongside researchers at Northwestern and Johns Hopkins, concludes that Kalshi rivals or beats professional Wall Street forecasts on key economic data, and does it in real time.What The Paper FoundOn headline CPI, Kalshi delivered a statistically significant improvement over the Bloomberg consensus forecast. On core CPI and unemployment, it ran neck-and-neck with professional forecasters surveyed by the New York Fed, but updates continuously, rather than every six we ...

Prediction markets are gaining credibility and controversy at the same time. A recent study suggests that market-based forecasts may now rival traditional economic predictions over several months. Experts argue that such real-money, continuously updated markets could provide policymakers and researchers with a live, information-rich benchmark for macroeconomic expectations. Prediction Markets Rising Accuracy Meets Regulatory Showdown Recent analysis found that Kalshi's implied forecasts for the federal ...

FiscalNote Update Summary Company Overview - **Company**: FiscalNote (NYSE: NOTE) - **Industry**: Political prediction markets and data analytics Key Points and Arguments Market Opportunity - The way information is consumed and acted upon is rapidly changing, presenting new market opportunities for FiscalNote [3][4] - FiscalNote has a strong foundation with thousands of policy professionals relying on its data and analysis, which is difficult to replicate [3] - The expansion into political prediction markets is seen as a natural evolution of FiscalNote's existing capabilities [4] Growth in Prediction Markets - Global trading volume in prediction markets surged, with U.S. volumes hitting over $44 billion in 2025, representing a 400% year-over-year growth [8] - Political markets accounted for approximately $7.2 billion in 2025, with expectations for continued growth [8] - The market is still early and underdeveloped, making it an attractive entry point for FiscalNote [5] Regulatory Environment - The CFTC's withdrawal of the ban on political and sports event contracts has enabled significant market growth [10][22] - Regulatory clarity is expected to improve, which will support the development of prediction markets [22] Competitive Advantage - FiscalNote's deep knowledge and experience in political prediction markets position it uniquely to capitalize on this growth [17] - The combination of FiscalNote's domain expertise and 365 Prediction's iGaming experience is expected to create a differentiated product [18] Product Development and Innovation - FiscalNote plans to launch products that address existing market concerns, such as credibility and ethical considerations [23][24] - The company aims to create a subscription service for tips on political outcomes, leveraging its AI capabilities [32] - Plans to explore fantasy leagues around political outcomes as a way to engage users without waiting for regulatory changes [33] Ethical Considerations - There are concerns about the perception of betting on political outcomes; FiscalNote aims to position prediction markets as tools for advocacy and awareness [25][26] - Existing relationships with advocacy organizations will be leveraged to create a more constructive market environment [26][27] Strategic Partnerships - Partnerships, particularly with 365 Prediction, are crucial for leveraging existing market infrastructure and capabilities [6][17] - The collaboration is expected to enhance market design and integrity, which are essential for successful market making [20][21] Future Outlook - FiscalNote is not pivoting away from its core business but is extending its capabilities into new markets [35] - The company is focused on leveraging its existing strengths to explore new opportunities in prediction markets and beyond [35] Additional Important Content - The discussion highlighted the historical context of prediction markets, originating from academic experiments to improve outcome predictions [12][14] - The integration of prediction market data into professional workflows is growing, indicating a shift towards institutional relevance [5] - The potential for prediction markets to hedge policy and regulatory risks was noted as a significant opportunity [5]

美国内华达州博彩监管机构周二提起诉讼，要求阻止预测市场运营商Kalshi提供赛事合同，允许该州居 民投注足球和篮球等体育比赛。内华达州博彩管理委员会（Nevada Gaming Control Board）提起诉讼， 这是就全国各州博彩监管机构是否有能力监管像 Kalshi 这样允许用户通过其预测市场进行金融投注的 公司而展开的一场不断升级的斗争的一部分。 就在内华达州提起诉讼的同一天，美国商品期货交易委员会也在相关诉讼的辩护状中表示支持Kalshi这 样的公司，认为该委员会对预测市场拥有专属管辖权。Kalshi 数月来一直试图阻止内华达州监管机构对 其提起诉讼。但联邦上诉法院周二拒绝搁置法官 11 月的命令，该命令解除了此前阻止内华达州当局采 取执法行动的禁令。 如果内华达州胜诉，它将成为第二个获得法院命令阻止卡尔希提供体育赛事合同的州。此前，马萨诸塞 州的一名法官在该州总检察长的要求下于 2 月 5 日签发了一项禁令。该禁令原定于 30 天后生效，但周 二州上诉法院的一名法官在卡尔希上诉期间将其搁置。 美国内华达州博彩监管机构周二提起诉讼，要求阻止预测市场运营商Kalshi提供赛事合同，允许该州居 民投注 ...