证券海外研究海外宏观、大类资产与出口表现

Financial Data and Key Metrics - US manufacturing PMI for May recorded 49.2, below the previous value and expectations, indicating a continued downward trend in economic fundamentals amid slower-than-expected inflation cooling [5] - Global manufacturing PMI for May rose to 50.9, showing a divergence in global manufacturing performance, with China declining, emerging markets expanding, Europe bottoming out, Germany improving, the US declining, Japan and South Korea recovering, and India performing well [5] - US CPI for April showed core CPI growth at 0.3% month-on-month, the lowest in three years, easing concerns about a "no landing" scenario and secondary inflation risks [25] - US non-farm payrolls for May exceeded expectations, with education and health services, leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and government sectors being the main contributors [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - Exports to the US, ASEAN, and Latin America performed better in May, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, exceeding the expected 6.4% [10] - Exports of household appliances, consumer electronics, and semiconductor-related products performed relatively well, with the contribution of electronics and semiconductors to exports rising from 0.77% to 1.12% [10] - The export growth rate is expected to fluctuate more in Q3, with a possible negative growth in Q3 and a low single-digit positive growth for the full year [10] Market Data and Key Metrics - The European Central Bank (ECB) cut its main refinancing rate, marginal lending rate, and deposit facility rate by 25bps to 4.25%, 4.50%, and 3.75% respectively, in line with market expectations [7] - The ECB maintained its forecast of two more rate cuts within the year, with no rate cut expected in July [7] - The US dollar index is expected to remain strong during the election year, with a unified government potentially benefiting the dollar index more than a divided government [31] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company is focusing on export opportunities to Europe, particularly in light industry, electrical equipment, household appliances, consumer electronics, semiconductors, and general machinery [15][22] - The company is monitoring the rightward shift in the European Parliament elections, which may lead to a downward revision of export expectations for "new three" products (electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells) [13] - The company is optimistic about the recovery of the European economy, with potential valuation repair in European stocks as the economy stabilizes [22] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Prospects - The company expects the US inflation trend to remain sticky, with the Federal Reserve likely to cut rates only once or not at all within the year [25] - The company anticipates that the US labor market will continue to cool slowly, with the Federal Reserve prioritizing inflation control and unlikely to cut rates within the year [28] - The company predicts that long-term US Treasury yields will fluctuate around 4%, with real interest rates unlikely to decline significantly [34][40] Other Important Information - The company highlights the potential for Bitcoin to outperform gold and the US dollar in the medium to long term, driven by global liquidity changes, risk appetite, and technological advancements [77] - The company expects oil prices to fluctuate around $85-90 per barrel, with a potential increase in the latter half of the year due to supply-demand tightness and OPEC+ efforts to support prices [66][68] - The company notes that copper prices may face downward pressure in Q3 due to a strong US dollar, but a sustained upward trend will depend on the economic recovery post-rate cuts [71] Summary of Q&A Session - No specific Q&A session details were provided in the document.