士丹利：通胀下降对股市意味着什么？

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The consensus expects 2Q EPS growth of 9% year-over-year and sales growth of 4% year-over-year [12][68] - Realized (LTM) EBIT margins are currently at 16.9% and projected to reach 17.5% for FY2024 and 18.5% for FY2025 [79][80] - Realized (LTM) net margins are at 12.4% today, with projections of 12.7% for FY2024 and 13.6% for FY2025 [79][80] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - 2Q earnings growth is expected to be driven primarily by the "Magnificent Seven" companies, with a leveling out of earnings growth between these companies and the broader S&P 493 from 3Q24 to 1Q25 [12][26] - The consensus expects 4% sales growth in both 2Q and for 2024, with 2025 sales growth anticipated to increase [61][68] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The market is pricing in 11% EPS growth for 2024 and 14% for 2025, indicating a positive outlook despite historical averages suggesting a decline [68][79] - The breadth of earnings revisions for the S&P 500 is near neutral territory as companies focus on the second half of 2024 [48][60] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is expected to benefit from a market-implied September rate hike, with growth being prioritized over inflation concerns [12][26] - Operating leverage is projected to improve, with expectations of 7% in 2024 and 9% in 2025 [84] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that consumer spending at the low/middle-end may face challenges in the second half of the year, while high-end consumer spending is expected to continue [13][26] - The operating leverage is expected to be 5% in 2Q, indicating a positive relationship between EPS growth and sales growth [84] Other Important Information - The earnings revision breadth has been generally negative over the past two weeks, particularly in sectors like Consumer Durables and Telecom [54][60] - The consensus expects 2Q to be materially better than 1Q, with a significant focus on the performance of the "Magnificent Seven" [68][72] Q&A Session Summary Question: Will companies benefit from a market-implied September hike? - Management indicated that the feasibility of 2H expectations is crucial, with growth being prioritized over inflation concerns [12][26] Question: How are consumer spending trends expected to evolve? - There are concerns about incremental cracks at low/middle-end consumers, while high-end consumer spending is anticipated to remain strong [13][26]