TIXIS_ 币化监测器 2023H2

Summary of the Natixis RMB Internationalization Monitor 2023H2 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) and its performance as a global currency, particularly in the context of payments, financing, central bank usage, and investment [2][10][16]. Key Points RMB Internationalization Trends - The RMB has seen a continued expansion in its overseas use, driven by a rapid increase in cross-border payments and borrowing in RMB due to favorable interest rate differentials compared to the US dollar [2][3]. - Despite this growth, the depreciation of the RMB has diminished the appeal of RMB-denominated assets among central banks and private investors [2][16]. Role of Hong Kong - Hong Kong has regained its status as a key offshore center for RMB transactions, showing increased activity compared to other regions like Taiwan and London, which have remained stagnant [2][16]. - The report highlights the importance of Hong Kong's infrastructure in supporting RMB trade settlements, which have diversified beyond traditional channels [22][27]. Impact of Geopolitical Events - The ongoing war in Ukraine and associated Western sanctions have had mixed effects on RMB internationalization. While sanctions have contributed to an increase in RMB payments, they have also heightened investor caution regarding RMB assets due to perceived risks [2][16]. RMB Internationalization Index - The Natixis RMB Internationalization Index indicates a steep rise in RMB's internationalization since early 2023, although growth has moderated in the first half of 2024. The index reflects various themes including payments, financing, central bank usage, and investment [14][16]. Payments - The RMB's share in global payments via SWIFT has increased significantly since mid-2023, although recent trends show some moderation [20]. - RMB trade settlements are expanding in both goods and services, with remittances diversifying from Hong Kong due to improved settlement infrastructure [22][27]. Financing - Offshore RMB financing remains strong, particularly through loans, with RMB loans in Hong Kong rising from a low base [37]. - The issuance of RMB bonds is gaining traction, supported by low funding costs [40]. Central Bank Usage - The RMB's share of global official allocated reserves has been declining since the onset of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, reflecting central banks' risk aversion [49]. - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) has seen stagnant progress in new bilateral swap line agreements since a peak in 2022 [52]. Investment - Foreign investment in onshore RMB bonds has rebounded, despite a significant yield differential with US assets. However, equity investment remains under pressure due to concerns about China's economic slowdown and corporate profitability [56][62]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the dual nature of the RMB's depreciation, which enhances its use as a financing tool while undermining its role as a store of value [16]. - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious outlook for RMB assets, with geopolitical tensions and economic conditions influencing investor behavior [2][16].