苏美达-20240804

Summary of Conference Call Notes on Su Mei Da Company Overview - Su Mei Da was established in 1978, originally as Jiangsu Mechanical Equipment Export Company, focusing on industrial product exports. The company underwent mixed ownership reform in 1998 and was listed in 2017 after restructuring with Changling Co. [2] Industry and Business Segments 1. Company Performance and Growth Points - The company reported a revenue growth of approximately 5% with a stable growth trend. The shipbuilding business generated revenue of 4.6 billion, contributing over 10% to total profits despite accounting for less than 4% of total revenue. Expected revenue and profit growth for 2024 is over 30%. The company commits to distributing 40% of net profit as dividends, with a consistent dividend payout ratio of around 40% from 2020 to 2023, exceeding 40% in 2023. Profit forecasts for 2024 to 2026 are 1.082 billion, 1.132 billion, and 1.174 billion respectively [1][10][17]. 2. Advanced Manufacturing Business - This segment includes outdoor power equipment, diesel generators, and shipbuilding. The shipbuilding orders extend to the first half of 2028, with 82 vessels ordered, ranking first globally in a specific category. Expected growth for the shipbuilding business is 30% in 2024, with subsequent growth stabilizing [3][11]. 3. Consumer Business - The consumer segment includes clothing exports, textile blankets, and branded school uniforms. The clothing export business consistently contributes over 10 billion in revenue, with the school uniform business exceeding 1 billion, collaborating with over 5,000 schools and benefiting from high gross margins [4][12]. 4. Environmental Business - The environmental segment encompasses clean energy and ecological protection. The company is involved in major wastewater treatment projects, contributing approximately 1.9 billion in revenue in 2023. Future developments will align with the Belt and Road Initiative, focusing on clean energy projects [5][13]. 5. Supply Chain Business - The supply chain primarily involves bulk commodity trading, with a low market concentration indicating growth potential. However, revenue from bulk commodities declined by 21.33% in 2022 due to demand fluctuations. The import business for electromechanical equipment remains stable, contributing around 15 billion in revenue [6][14][15]. Financial Status and Forecast - In 2023, total revenue exceeded 120 billion, with a stable net profit margin of 2.52%. The dividend payout ratio increased from 26.38% in 2019 to 42.80% in 2023, with future ratios expected to remain above 40%. Revenue growth is projected to decline from 7% in 2024 to 5% in 2026, while profit growth is expected to decrease from 5% to 3.7% [7][16][18]. Valuation and Market Outlook - The current valuation is around 9 to 10 times earnings, with a potential increase to 12 times by 2025, suggesting a market value between 12 billion and 13 billion. Compared to industry peers like CITIC Metal and Yulong Co., which have valuations of 16, 14, and 13 times, Su Mei Da's valuation is considered advantageous [19][20]. Key Takeaways - The primary growth driver for the company is the shipbuilding sector, while other segments are more susceptible to macroeconomic conditions. The company maintains a stable long-term dividend ratio above 40%, providing a reliable return for shareholders [20].