Thematics_ The World in 2030 - In 10 Short Stories

Key Themes and Industry Insights 1. Autonomous Driving: * Problem: High road fatalities and increasing demand for multiple incomes. * Forecast: L5 autonomous vehicles expected by 2030, with L1/2 cars still dominating. * Implications: Waymo could capture 4-3% market share in Phoenix and SF by 2025. 2. Multi-Earning Agents: * Problem: Housing affordability worsened, under-30s living with parents increased, and record number of Americans require multiple incomes. * Forecast: Generative AI applications to save time and money, leading to increased income for individuals. * Implications: $400bn income TAM for small businesses. **3. Humanoid Robots**: * **Problem**: High number of work-related deaths and injuries, and aging population leading to labor shortages. * **Forecast**: Humanoid robots to become cost-effective in domestic US food preparation and logistics by 2030. * **Implications**:$1trn TAM in 2050 for humanoid robots. 4. AI Sovereignty: * Problem: Limited control of raw inputs for AI models by the US and Europe. * Forecast: Reshoring of critical infrastructure, including semiconductors and clean energy components. * Implications: Increased investment in data centers and grid infrastructure. 5. Negative Power Prices: * Problem: Increasing solar power leading to negative energy prices at peak loads. * Forecast: 10% of annual hours could have negative power prices by 2027. * Implications: CATL could benefit from increased battery storage demand. 6. Nuclear Renaissance: * Problem: Limited venture funding for nuclear power compared to other sectors. * Forecast: Nuclear power to contribute 5% more to electricity supply by 2030. * Implications: Strong prospects for uranium and nuclear enablers. 7. Obesity: * Problem: Growing obesity rates and associated health complications. * Forecast: 25% CAGR in prescriptions for obesity medications by 2030. * Implications: Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly well positioned for the future. 8. Smart Chemotherapy: * Problem: Traditional chemotherapy still accounts for over 37% of cancer prescriptions. * Forecast: Antibody Drug Conjugates (ADCs) to become a 140bn market. * **Implications**: Companies like Daiichi Sankyo, AstraZeneca, and Pfizer well positioned. **9. AI Assisted Fertility**: * **Problem**: Declining fertility rates and increasing difficulty in conception. * **Forecast**: AI models to improve embryo selection accuracy. * **Implications**: Companies like Cooper Companies and Google well positioned. **10. The Rise & Rise of Private Capital**: * **Problem**: Private equity-backed businesses surpassing publicly listed companies. * **Forecast**: 13tn of private capital assets under management. * Implications: Private equity-backed businesses to continue growing at a double-digit pace.