Nomura_China What's next II 中文

Industry and Company Analysis Key Points: 1. Market Outlook: The report focuses on the Asian market, specifically China, and discusses the potential economic stimulus measures expected to be implemented by the Beijing government. 2. Economic Stimulus Measures: The report highlights that the government is expected to announce a fiscal stimulus package, with the size potentially not exceeding 3% of GDP, including funds from the People's Bank of China and policy banks. 3. Focus Areas: The stimulus package is expected to focus on filling local government fiscal gaps, addressing the real estate crisis, and reforming the fiscal system. 4. Real Estate Crisis: The report emphasizes the need for the government to address the real estate crisis, including the issue of delayed deliveries of pre-sold homes. 5. Fiscal Deficit: The report estimates the total fiscal deficit to be 6.4 trillion yuan, with the land sale revenue gap contributing significantly to the deficit. 6. Transfer Payments: The report suggests that the government may increase transfer payments to local governments and provide them with greater debt issuance limits. 7. Social Security Expenditure: The report mentions potential increases in social security spending for low-income groups and incentives for childbirth. 8. Long-term Bond Issuance: The report discusses the issuance of ultra-long-term special bonds, with a focus on supporting major projects and infrastructure development. 9. Real Estate Stimulus Measures: The report evaluates the effectiveness of recent real estate stimulus measures and highlights the need for further action to address the underlying issues in the industry. References: - [doc id='1'] - [doc id='4'] - [doc id='5'] - [doc id='6'] - [doc id='7'] - [doc id='8'] - [doc id='9'] - [doc id='10'] - [doc id='11'] - [doc id='12'] - [doc id='13'] - [doc id='14'] - [doc id='15'] - [doc id='16'] - [doc id='17'] - [doc id='18'] - [doc id='19'] - [doc id='20'] - [doc id='21'] - [doc id='22'] - [doc id='23'] - [doc id='24'] - [doc id='25'] - [doc id='26']