德意志银行：中国股票策略_趋势变化

Key Points Industry/Company Involved: - The research focuses on the Hong Kong and Chinese equity markets, specifically the HSI and CSI300 indices. Core Views and Evidence: 1. Trend Change, Not Just a Rally: - The current market rally is not just a short covering but indicates ongoing strength. - Historical data shows that after four consecutive down years, the market tends to see strong rebounds. - The HSI and CSI300 have fallen more in the past four years than the DJTA did in five years. - The correlation between GDP and market performance has been low, suggesting that economic growth is not the primary driver of the current rally. - The government's focus on accelerating spending and reducing debt is supportive of the market. - The industrial profitability has been weak, but this has coincided with previous market rallies, indicating a bullish outlook for investors. - There is a significant amount of cash on hand, with households ready to spend or invest. - Listed companies have strong balance sheets, with many having net cash positions. - The US market is becoming less concentrated, which could benefit Asian markets. - Valuations of the CSI300 are normal, while the HSI remains undervalued. - The dividend yield in Hong Kong is attractive compared to other markets. - Asian markets are undervalued compared to historical levels. - The model portfolio suggests overweighting Hong Kong/China and energy/commodities sectors. 2. China's Economic Outlook: - China's GDP has grown significantly, outpacing the West by 2-3x. - The market correlation to GDP is not evident, suggesting that other factors are driving the market. - China's USD6.5tn cash build-up is expected to be unleashed, making equities attractive compared to bank deposits. - China is under-owned globally, similar to the new fossil fuels. 3. Market Risks: - The APAC region has consistently fallen during US rate rise cycles, suggesting caution in markets that have risen sharply since 2009. - The correlation between GDP and market performance is low, indicating that economic growth is not the primary driver of the current rally. Other Important Points: - The research highlights the importance of understanding the historical context and market dynamics when analyzing the Hong Kong and Chinese equity markets. - The research provides a comprehensive analysis of the current market conditions and future outlook, offering valuable insights for investors. - The model portfolio provides a specific investment strategy based on the research findings.