UBS(UBS) - 2024 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics - Net profit for Q3 2024 was $1.4 billion, with an underlying PBT of$2.4 billion, reflecting strong financial performance [4] - Total revenues increased by 9% YoY to $11.7 billion, driven by momentum in asset gathering businesses and the Investment Bank [16] - Operating expenses declined by 4$9.2 billion, contributing to improved profitability [16] - CET1 capital ratio stood at 14.3%, slightly above guidance, with a strong capital position maintained [9][22] - Invested assets across the group increased by 15% YoY to $6.2 trillion, driven by growth in wealth and asset management [5] Business Line Performance - Global Wealth Management (GWM) pretax profit increased by 30$1.3 billion, with strong revenue growth outpacing expenses by 4 percentage points [29] - Investment Bank (IB) pretax profit was $377 million, with revenues up 29$2.5 billion, supported by strong performance in global markets and banking [41] - Asset Management pretax profit increased by 46% to $237 million, with revenues up 13$2 trillion mark, with PBT growing by 11% YoY and over 30% sequentially [30] - Switzerland faced headwinds in net interest income, but the company maintained its commitment to providing credit, with CHF 35 billion of loans granted or renewed in the quarter [6] Strategic Direction and Industry Competition - The company is focused on integrating Credit Suisse, with significant progress made in client account migrations in Luxembourg and Hong Kong, and plans for Singapore and Japan by year-end [7] - Investments in AI and automation are accelerating, with the rollout of Microsoft Copilot and the development of proprietary AI tools like Red [10][11] - The company aims to achieve a cost-to-income ratio below 70% by the end of 2026, with $7.5 billion in annualized gross cost savings expected by the end of 2024 [20][21] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the constructive but volatile market environment, with ongoing global macroeconomic developments and geopolitical conflicts creating uncertainties [13] - The company remains confident in delivering on its financial targets and achieving long-term sustainable growth, supported by a strong capital and liquidity position [46] - Lower interest rates are expected to spur client demand for advisory solutions and lending activities, helping to offset some NII headwinds [33] Other Important Information - The company is implementing the largest deployment of Microsoft Copilot in the global financial services industry, with 50,000 licenses being rolled out [10] - Employee satisfaction remains high, with 84$6.4 billion over the next several years, benefiting net profit, equity, and CET1 capital [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Buyback plans for 2025 and regulatory changes - The company reiterated its commitment to share buybacks in 2025, with plans to provide more details in Q4 results. Regulatory changes in Switzerland are still under discussion, but the company's capital position remains strong [49][50] Question: Impact of lower rates on U.S. Wealth Management - Lower rates are expected to spur lending opportunities, but sweep deposits may continue to taper. The company is focused on retaining deposits and converting them into more profitable mandates [52] Question: 2025 profitability outlook - The company expects high single-digit return on CET1 capital, with no significant one-offs expected in Q4. The focus remains on cost reductions and achieving a cost-to-income ratio below 70% by 2026 [54][57] Question: Balance sheet optimization and inorganic growth in U.S. Wealth Management - Balance sheet optimization efforts have lifted revenue margins by 3 percentage points, with further progress expected. Inorganic growth opportunities are being considered, but the priority is improving current operations [60][73] Question: Sensitivity to yield curve shifts and potential joint ventures in India - The company's sensitivity to yield curve shifts has decreased due to loan flooring dynamics in a lower interest rate environment. While Asia Pac is a growth focus, no major strategic moves in India are planned at this stage [63][64] Question: Adviser numbers and Asia Wealth Management outlook - Adviser numbers are stabilizing, with further reductions expected in non-U.S. regions. In Asia, the company is optimistic about growth opportunities, particularly with lower rates and releveraging potential [68][69] Question: U.S. Wealth Management strategy and deposit roll-off - The company is focused on improving margins through productivity and cost optimization. Deposit roll-off is expected to continue into Q4 and early 2025, with efforts to retain deposits in more profitable forms [72][73] Question: Capital ratio stability and Basel IV impact - The capital ratio remained stable despite strong earnings, with FX and deferred tax assets impacting the ratio. Basel IV implementation is expected to reduce the CET1 capital ratio by around 30 basis points [75][76] Question: U.S. sweep deposits and loan book commitment - The company is committed to maintaining a CHF 350 billion loan book in Switzerland, with some volatility expected. Sweep deposit repricing impacts are expected to be minimal, with lower rates reducing the overall effect [78][79] Question: Investment Bank outperformance and NCL progress - The Investment Bank's strong performance is attributed to the integration of Credit Suisse teams and supportive market conditions. NCL derisking progress is ahead of schedule, with further updates expected in Q4 [82][85]