铝专家：解读出口退税取消、铝市场展望

Industry and Company Involved * Industry: Aluminum industry, specifically focusing on aluminum products and their export. * Company: Not specified, but the discussion pertains to the broader aluminum industry and its players. Core Points and Arguments 1. Cancellation of Export Tax: The government has canceled the export tax on aluminum products, including aluminum sheets, foil, and extrusions, effective December 1, 2024. This decision was made by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation, not considering the impact on the industry [2][4][6]. 2. Impact on Aluminum Exports: The cancellation of the export tax is expected to have a significant impact on aluminum exports, with the total export volume of the affected products reaching 516.6万吨 in 2023, valued at $17.74 billion [6]. 3. Industry Response: The industry views the cancellation of the export tax as a positive development. It is seen as a sign that the government is no longer supporting the aluminum industry and that companies should focus on technological development and product quality improvement [22][29]. 4. Global Market Dynamics: The global aluminum market is characterized by overcapacity and increasing production in China, accounting for approximately 66% of global production in 2023. This has led to a slowdown in consumption growth, particularly in the construction sector [17]. 5. Price Impact: The cancellation of the export tax is expected to have a short-term impact on prices, with domestic prices potentially decreasing and international prices increasing. However, the long-term impact on prices is uncertain [32][33]. 6. Oxide Alumina Prices: The price of oxide alumina has recently surged, reaching over 5,000 yuan per ton. This increase is attributed to factors such as supply constraints and speculative trading. However, the author believes that this price surge is non-rational and unsustainable [35][36][37]. 7. Consumption Outlook: The author expects the consumption of aluminum to continue to grow, driven by sectors such as transportation and power electronics. However, the growth rate is expected to slow down compared to previous years [51][52]. Other Important Points * Trade War Concerns: The author expresses concerns about the impact of trade wars on aluminum exports, particularly to the United States and the European Union [22]. * Domestic Market: The domestic aluminum market is characterized by overcapacity and declining processing fees. This has led to increased focus on exports as a way to alleviate domestic pressure [19][20]. * Global Aluminum Industry: China is the largest producer and exporter of aluminum in the world. However, the industry is facing challenges such as overcapacity and increasing competition from other countries [11][17]. * Future Outlook: The author is optimistic about the future of the aluminum industry, particularly in terms of technological development and product quality improvement [29][55].