Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK)_ Singles' Day GMV +42% yoy above expectation, driven by robust Mi 15 series and white goods sales; Buy

Summary of Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) - Industry: Consumer Electronics and AIoT (Artificial Intelligence of Things) Key Points and Arguments Singles' Day Performance - Xiaomi reported a Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) of Rmb31.9 billion during the Singles' Day promotion, which is approximately 42% higher year-over-year (yoy) compared to the previous year [9][32] - This GMV represents 79% of Goldman Sachs' estimated revenue for China smartphone and AIoT in Q4 2024, significantly higher than 65% and 62% in Q4 2023 and Q4 2022, respectively [9][32] Smartphone Sales - Xiaomi ranked No.1 in sales volume and No.2 in GMV on JD.com during Singles' Day [10][37] - The Xiaomi 15 series achieved over 1 million shipments faster than the Xiaomi 14 series, with a favorable model mix attracting new users, including 20% from iPhone users [11] - The Xiaomi 15 captured the No.1 position in the Rmb4-6k price segment on JD.com, while the Xiaomi 15 Pro ranked No.6 in the Rmb6k+ segment [11] AIoT and Home Appliances - Xiaomi ranked No.3 in sales volume for air conditioners, No.6 in washing machines, and No.6 in refrigerators during Singles' Day [18] - The GMV for large home appliances grew over 70% yoy, with specific products like dual-drum washing machines and upward airflow ACs exceeding management targets by 4.5x and 3.5x, respectively [18] - Wearables, including Mi Bands and smartwatches, saw significant sales, with Mi Band 9 Pro shipments tripling compared to the previous model [18] Ecosystem and Offline Expansion - Xiaomi achieved No.1 positions in over 60 product categories within its ecosystem, with notable GMV growth in smart lockers, range hoods, and water purifiers [19] - Cumulative GMV at Mi Home stores grew by 109% yoy, indicating a shift in sales mix towards AIoT products [20] - The number of Mi Home stores expanded by approximately 40% yoy to 14,000, with a target of 15,000 by year-end [21] Future Outlook - Xiaomi aims to secure a top 3 position in China's white goods sector, focusing on technology capabilities, quality standards, and consumer-oriented services [30] - The company is rated as a "Buy" with a 12-month target price of HK$30.7, based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation methodology [79] Important but Overlooked Content - The Xiaomi 15 series is expected to have lifecycle sales potentially 18% higher than the Xiaomi 14 series, driven by a 12% higher average selling price (ASP) [21] - The robust growth in AIoT GMV, which accelerated from 21% yoy in Q2 2024 to 32% yoy in Q3 2024, indicates a strong market demand [22] - Xiaomi's strategic focus on premiumization and internet revenue growth is expected to stabilize core gross profit margins despite rising costs [67] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting Xiaomi's strong performance during the Singles' Day promotion, its competitive positioning in the smartphone and AIoT markets, and its strategic initiatives for future growth.