中芯国际拆分与估值测算

Key Points Industry and Company Involved * Industry: Semiconductor industry, specifically focusing on chip manufacturing and related equipment. * Company: SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) Core Views and Arguments * US Sanctions Impact: The US government's sanctions, including tariffs, blacklists, and national security reviews, have significantly impacted Chinese companies' R&D progress, production efficiency, and business operations. The Biden administration further intensified these measures with the Chip Act and Export Control Law, causing major shocks to Chinese chip manufacturing companies like SMIC. * SMIC's Importance and Growth Potential: SMIC, as the only Chinese company capable of mass-producing advanced processes, holds unique scarcity and strategic value. Despite valuation disagreements, SMIC still has significant growth potential and its stock price has upward potential. Its third-quarter performance was excellent, with revenue exceeding $2 billion for the first time and both capacity utilization and gross margin improving. * **SMIC vs. TSMC Valuation**: There is a significant difference in valuation between SMIC and TSMC. If mature processes are valued at 25x P/E and advanced processes at 50x P/E, SMIC's overall valuation could exceed 1 trillion yuan in the long term. The current stock price still shows room for upside. * **SMIC's Challenges and Opportunities**: SMIC faces challenges and opportunities in the current environment. While there are disagreements about valuation, SMIC still has significant growth potential and its stock price has upward potential. Its third-quarter performance was excellent, with revenue exceeding$2 billion for the first time and both capacity utilization and gross margin improving. SMIC is expected to continue expanding its production capacity, with mature process monthly capacity expected to reach 1.2 million wafers in 2026 and 1.3 million wafers in 2027. * SMIC's Revenue and Profit Expectations: SMIC's revenue and profit expectations are positive. In 2026, mature process monthly capacity is expected to reach 1.2 million wafers, with revenue reaching $15.6 billion and net profit reaching$2.3 billion. Advanced process revenue is expected to reach $19 billion in 2026, with net profit reaching$7.6 billion. * Valuation Differences Between SMIC and TSMC: The market has disagreements about SMIC's valuation, but overall, it is still lower than TSMC. If mature processes are valued at 25x P/B and advanced processes at 9x P/B, SMIC's overall valuation could exceed 1 trillion yuan in the long term. The current stock price still shows room for upside. * Key Companies in the Lithography Equipment Field: Companies such as Stock Holding Technology, Tengjing Technology, and Maolan Optics are worth paying attention to in the lithography equipment field. These companies focus on core components such as light sources, objectives, and workbenches, which are important links in the technology iteration of lithography machines. * Impact of US-China Technology Conflict: The US-China technology conflict is likely to intensify, and specific details will be determined by US legal terms. In this context, China's trend of independent and controllable technology development is promising, including SMIC and its related equipment components. This round of independent and controllable stock market sentiment, combined with the bull market, is expected to drive SMIC's market value to exceed 1 trillion yuan. * Key Points for Investors: Investors should pay attention to the following aspects: the trend of independent and controllable technology in the semiconductor industry, the development dynamics and financial performance of key companies such as SMIC, the development of key component suppliers in the lithography equipment field such as Stock Holding Technology, Tengjing Technology, and Maolan Optics, the valuation differences between different companies, and the risks and opportunities brought by potential policy changes.