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informs·2024-12-02 06:35

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - Industry: Greater China Telecoms [89] Key Companies Mentioned - GDS Holdings Ltd (GDS.O) - VNET Group Inc (VNET.O) - SUNeVision Holdings Limited (1686.HK) Core Insights and Arguments - Market Performance: China IDCs have de-rated despite a drop in interest rates, contrasting with the re-rating of US data centers [8][9] - Stock Performance: Key stocks such as VNET, GDS, and SUNeVision are trading significantly below average valuations, indicating potential upside [8] - EBITDA Growth Expectations: GDS's EBITDA is projected to accelerate from approximately 5% in 2024 to around 10% in 2025, while VNET and SUNeVision are expected to grow at 15% and 18% CAGR from 2024 to 2026, respectively [9] - Valuation Methodology: A 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) model is used for valuation, with a WACC of 8.2% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5% [23] - Public REITs: Anticipation of private REITs reaching milestones within 6 months and public REITs within 12 months, which may provide a new valuation anchor for the China business [9] Risks Identified - Downside Risks: - Slower-than-expected demand and increasing competition leading to pricing pressure [24][28] - Significant increase in land supply by the government altering supply-demand dynamics [24] - Potential for hyperscalers to reduce cloud capex, particularly in AI investments [38] - Upside Risks: - Stronger demand from both domestic and overseas hyperscale cloud vendors [23] - Accelerated sales in overseas markets or entry into new markets [26] Additional Important Points - Market Dynamics: The report highlights the potential for asset monetization through REITs at accretive valuations, which could positively impact stock valuations [26] - Analyst Ratings: The industry view is categorized as attractive, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [60] - Stock Ratings Distribution: As of October 31, 2024, 38% of stocks are rated Overweight, 46% Equal-weight, and 16% Underweight, reflecting a diverse outlook among analysts [57] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the industry dynamics, company performance, and potential risks and opportunities within the Greater China Telecoms sector.