Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - Industry: Greater China Telecoms [89] Key Companies Mentioned - GDS Holdings Ltd (GDS.O) - VNET Group Inc (VNET.O) - SUNeVision Holdings Limited (1686.HK) Core Insights and Arguments - Market Performance: China IDCs have de-rated despite a drop in interest rates, contrasting with the re-rating of US data centers [8][9] - Stock Performance: Key stocks such as VNET, GDS, and SUNeVision are trading significantly below average valuations, indicating potential upside [8] - EBITDA Growth Expectations: GDS's EBITDA is projected to accelerate from approximately 5% in 2024 to around 10% in 2025, while VNET and SUNeVision are expected to grow at 15% and 18% CAGR from 2024 to 2026, respectively [9] - Valuation Methodology: A 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) model is used for valuation, with a WACC of 8.2% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5% [23] - Public REITs: Anticipation of private REITs reaching milestones within 6 months and public REITs within 12 months, which may provide a new valuation anchor for the China business [9] Risks Identified - Downside Risks: - Slower-than-expected demand and increasing competition leading to pricing pressure [24][28] - Significant increase in land supply by the government altering supply-demand dynamics [24] - Potential for hyperscalers to reduce cloud capex, particularly in AI investments [38] - Upside Risks: - Stronger demand from both domestic and overseas hyperscale cloud vendors [23] - Accelerated sales in overseas markets or entry into new markets [26] Additional Important Points - Market Dynamics: The report highlights the potential for asset monetization through REITs at accretive valuations, which could positively impact stock valuations [26] - Analyst Ratings: The industry view is categorized as attractive, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [60] - Stock Ratings Distribution: As of October 31, 2024, 38% of stocks are rated Overweight, 46% Equal-weight, and 16% Underweight, reflecting a diverse outlook among analysts [57] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the industry dynamics, company performance, and potential risks and opportunities within the Greater China Telecoms sector.
Where are they trading now_
informs·2024-12-02 06:35