路透社独家：消息人士称，随着特朗普贸易风险迫在眉睫，中国当局正在考虑人民币贬值

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the Chinese currency, the Renminbi (RMB), and its potential devaluation in response to trade tensions with the United States, particularly under the anticipated second term of Donald Trump as President [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - Chinese policymakers are considering allowing the RMB to depreciate in 2025 to counteract increased tariffs proposed by Trump, which include a 10% general import tariff and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods [1]. - A depreciation of the RMB could lower the prices of Chinese exports, thereby mitigating the impact of tariffs and creating a more accommodative monetary environment in China [1]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to emphasize allowing the market to have a greater role in determining the value of the RMB, despite not officially abandoning support for the currency's stability [3]. - The Chinese government has committed to a "moderately accommodative" monetary policy for the first time in approximately 14 years, indicating a shift in policy stance [3]. - Analysts suggest that China should consider temporarily shifting the RMB's peg from the US dollar to a basket of non-dollar currencies, particularly the Euro, to maintain exchange rate flexibility during trade tensions [3]. Important but Overlooked Content - The RMB has been tightly managed, typically allowed to fluctuate within 2% of a daily midpoint set by the central bank, but discussions of devaluation represent a significant departure from this practice [2]. - Historical context shows that during Trump's first term, the RMB depreciated over 12% from March 2018 to May 2020 amid a series of retaliatory tariff announcements [4]. - Analysts predict that by the end of next year, the RMB/USD exchange rate could fall to 7.37, reflecting a nearly 4% decline since late September as investors prepare for Trump's potential re-election [5]. - The PBOC has previously intervened in the currency market through state-owned banks to curb excessive volatility in the RMB [5].