Global Oil Fundamentals_Market balance still in a surplus even with lower OPEC+ supply

Summary of Global Oil Fundamentals Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global oil market, specifically analyzing supply and demand dynamics for 2024 and 2025 [9][10]. Key Points Market Balance - The overall implied balance for 2024 remains unchanged at a surplus of 0.10 million barrels per day (Mb/d) [9]. - A tighter market is expected in the fourth quarter of 2024, with a projected deficit of -0.37 Mb/d due to higher demand and lower supply from OPEC+ [9]. - The 2025 market balance is forecasted to be in a surplus of 0.95 Mb/d, reduced from +1.15 Mb/d previously [9]. Demand Projections - The International Energy Agency (IEA) cut 2024 demand growth estimates by 78,000 barrels per day (kb/d) to 0.84 Mb/d, while raising 2025 growth estimates by 90 kb/d to 1.08 Mb/d [10]. - The absolute demand forecast for 2025 is slightly higher at 103.89 Mb/d, reflecting an increase of 80 kb/d [10]. - Chinese demand for 2024 remains unchanged at 0.14 Mb/d but is revised up by 30 kb/d for 2025 to 0.22 Mb/d [10]. Supply Dynamics - Non-OPEC+ supply growth estimates are unchanged at 1.48 Mb/d for both 2024 and 2025 [11]. - US supply growth for 2024 was raised by 20 kb/d to 0.71 Mb/d, while the 2025 estimate remains at 0.63 Mb/d [11]. - Canadian supply growth for 2024 was increased by 30 kb/d to 0.21 Mb/d, offset by a reduction in Brazil's projection by 20 kb/d to -45 kb/d [11]. OPEC+ Compliance and Output - OPEC+ output increased by 80 kb/d month-over-month in November, reaching 34.40 Mb/d, which is 0.68 Mb/d above the targeted level [12]. - Kazakhstan led the increase with an output rise of 0.13 Mb/d, while Iraqi compliance improved with a reduction of 50 kb/d [12]. - The IEA forecasts incremental supply from OPEC+ in 2025 driven by Kazakhstan (+0.21 Mb/d), Russia (+0.11 Mb/d), Libya (+90 kb/d), and the UAE (+60 kb/d) [12]. Additional Insights - The IEA's forecasts assume that OPEC+ cuts remain in place while still increasing crude production by 0.63 Mb/d over the next year [9]. - Global observed oil inventories fell by 39.3 million barrels month-over-month in October, with preliminary data for November indicating a rebound [9]. Conclusion - The oil market is expected to experience a mixed outlook, with a neutral stance for 2024 and a bullish perspective for 2025, driven by demand growth primarily from non-OECD countries and adjustments in OPEC+ supply [9][10].