Summary of Global Oil: Monthly Agency Data Snapshot (16 December 2024) Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global oil industry, providing insights into supply forecasts, production capacities, and market dynamics. Key Points Global Supply Growth Forecasts - Global supply growth forecasts have been raised by 60 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) for 2024 and 110 kb/d for 2025, reaching 590 kb/d and 1.35 million barrels per day (Mb/d) respectively [3] - OPEC+ supply forecasts for 2025 have been cut by 40 kb/d, anticipating improved compliance and reflecting recent trends in Iranian output, offset by higher supply from non-OPEC+ sources (+180 kb/d) [3] - Non-OPEC+ is expected to be the primary driver of global supply growth, with forecasts of 1.42 Mb/d in 2024 and 1.33 Mb/d in 2025 [3] OPEC Production Insights - OPEC-12 holds 5.82 Mb/d of spare capacity, with Saudi Arabia accounting for 3.26 Mb/d (56% of total spare capacity) [10] - The UAE is expected to contribute to OPEC's production capacity growth, raising its capacity to over 5 Mb/d by 2026 [13] - Limited increases in OPEC production are expected through 2030, with Saudi Arabia's production capacity projected to remain around 12 Mb/d [13] Iranian and Venezuelan Production - Iranian output forecast has been slightly lowered by 50 kb/d to an average of 3.35 Mb/d in 2025 due to uncertainties surrounding production levels [15] - Venezuelan supply is forecasted to remain stable at 0.90 Mb/d in 2024 and 0.94 Mb/d in 2025 [15] - Libyan production is expected to be stable at 1.09 Mb/d in 2024 and 1.19 Mb/d in 2025, with recent comments indicating production may have increased to 1.4 Mb/d [15] Russian Production and Exports - Russian crude exports decreased by 1% month-over-month in November to 4.82 Mb/d, with a 3% increase in exports to India offset by a 7% decrease to China [18] US Production and Drilling Activity - US drilling activity showed slight month-over-month improvement, with new wells drilled and completed up by 8 and 2 respectively [23] - The US rig count has stabilized at around 480, which is 20% below the levels seen at the beginning of 2023 [46] Demand Projections - Demand for various oil products is projected to increase gradually, with LPG and ethane expected to rise from 14.4 Mb/d in 2023 to 15.4 Mb/d in 2025 [29] - Gasoline demand is projected to peak at 27.4 Mb/d in 2025 before declining to 25.0 Mb/d by 2030 [29] OECD Inventories - OECD commercial oil inventories are projected to fluctuate, with a notable increase in stocks observed in recent months [35][48] Additional Insights - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments in production strategies among OPEC+ members and the impact of geopolitical factors on oil supply and demand dynamics. - The stability in US drilling activity suggests a cautious approach in response to market conditions, reflecting broader trends in the oil industry. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the Global Oil: Monthly Agency Data Snapshot, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the oil industry.
Global Oil_ Monthly Agency Data Snapshot_Different views on 2025 balances