China Industrials_Nowcasting on US economics and China's export_import (Dec.)

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: China Industrials - Date: December 26, 2024 Core Insights and Arguments - Retail Spending: Preliminary retail spending estimates for December show an increase of 0.76% MoM, accelerating from last month's reported 0.20% MoM [2] - Core CPI: The UBS Evidence Lab Nowcast expects the core CPI to stabilize with an increase of 0.20% MoM, which is below the US Economics team's preliminary estimate of a 28 basis points increase [2] - Headline CPI: The Nowcast indicates a headline CPI (seasonally adjusted) MoM increase of 0.30%, influenced by higher energy prices, while the US Economics team's preliminary estimate for headline CPI is a 38 basis points increase [2] - Airfares: There is a noted deceleration in airfares compared to the previous month, while rent CPI continues to increase MoM at a stable rate [2] Trade Dynamics - Exports and Imports: Both exports and imports in China are projected to have similar year-over-year growth in December [3] - Nowcasting Methodology: The China Nowcasting: Import and Export Value Monitor utilizes non-traditional big data, including maritime and air freight volume data, to model import and export values in USD and their YoY growth [27] Economic Indicators - ISM Manufacturing Index: The Nowcast projects the ISM manufacturing composite index to be at 48.0, aligning with consensus expectations [24] - Industrial Production: Overall industrial production is forecasted to decrease by 220 basis points MoM (seasonally adjusted) for December, with total industrial production YoY estimated at -0.1%, an improvement from last month's reported -0.9% YoY [24] Additional Insights - UBS Evidence Lab: The UBS Evidence Lab is a sell-side team that creates insight-ready datasets, which have been utilized by UBS Research analysts since 2014 to produce thousands of differentiated research reports [5] - Data Availability: The Nowcasting data is often available weeks before official government data releases, providing timely insights into economic conditions [27] Important but Overlooked Content - Analyst Independence: Analysts responsible for the report certify that their views reflect personal opinions and are prepared independently, ensuring objectivity in the analysis [30] - Investment Risks: The document emphasizes that investments involve risks and that past performance is not indicative of future results, urging investors to seek personalized advice [19] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the China Industrials sector and relevant economic indicators, while also highlighting the methodologies and insights provided by UBS Evidence Lab.