宇通客车20250105

Key Points Industry/Company - Industry: Bus manufacturing industry - Company:宇通客车 (Yutong Bus) Core Views and Arguments - Investment Recommendation: The analyst emphasizes the opportunity in宇通客车's third round of growth, suggesting investors should not miss out on this round if they missed the previous two rounds in 2023 and 2024 [1]. - Stock Selection: The analyst favors companies with a宇通客车-style dividend growth, particularly in the first two months of the first quarter due to the pre-Chinese New Year rush [2]. - Investment Strategy: The key to宇通客车's investment is to judge annual sales, performance, and dividends. The analyst believes the core driver is 2024's sales and economic performance [2]. - Revenue and Valuation: The analyst expects the company's revenue to break through 50 billion and reach 80 billion, with valuation to be further clarified by the company's performance forecast, dividend guidance, and shareholder meetings in the first quarter [3]. - Sales Data:宇通客车 achieved a total sales volume of 86,000 units in December, a new high since 2020, with exports reaching 2,600 units, exceeding expectations, especially with 800 units being new energy exports [4]. - Export Sales Structure:宇通客车's export sales structure has improved significantly, with Europe accounting for a significant portion of the exports and profits, driven by the strong performance of new energy exports [6]. - Profit Expectations: The analyst has updated the profit forecast to over 3.5 billion for 2024, with Q4 expected to be around 1.2 billion. The 2025 profit forecast is conservatively set at 4.2 billion [7]. - Export Outlook: The analyst expects the export volume to reach 16,000 to 18,000 units in 2025, with new energy exports expected to exceed 3,600 units [8]. - Performance and Valuation Switch:宇通客车 is entering a period of intense catalysts, similar to previous growth cycles. The analyst believes the company's performance and stock price growth are driven by both earnings and sales volume verification [10]. - Historical Performance:宇通客车 has consistently achieved sales targets, with only one exception during the pandemic. The analyst emphasizes the industry's predictability and the reliability of the company's guidance [13]. Other Important Points - Dividend Expectations: The analyst expects the company to provide a more reasonable dividend forecast after the official guidance from the company [12]. - Industry Predictability: The analyst compares the bus manufacturing industry's predictability to that of the city bus industry, emphasizing the importance of the company's guidance and its impact on stock prices [14].