Key Takeaways Industry or Company Involved * Tesla Inc (TSLA.O, TSLA US): The focus of the document is on Tesla Inc, a leading electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer. Core Views and Arguments * 4Q Delivery Miss: Tesla missed its delivery expectations by 3% in 4Q, primarily due to a relatively aged product lineup and increased competition from lower-priced EVs ahead of the introduction of the new, cheaper model (Juniper) in early/mid-2025. * Inventory Reduction: Despite the delivery miss, Tesla achieved a 6 to 7-day reduction in days' supply of inventory in 4Q, driven by delivering 36k more units than it produced. This resulted in a ~400.00, based on a valuation methodology that considers the core Tesla Auto business, Tesla Mobility, third-party supplier, energy, and network services. Other Important Content * Morgan Stanley's Stock Rating: Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on Tesla, with an industry view of "In-Line" and a price target of $400.00. * Risks: The document highlights various risks to Tesla's upside and downside, including competition, execution risk, market recognition of new services, China risk, and valuation. * Analyst Certification: Adam Jonas, CFA, the lead analyst on the report, certifies that their views are accurately expressed and that they have not received compensation for expressing specific recommendations or views. References * [doc id='2'] * [doc id='5'] * [doc id='6'] * [doc id='10'] * [doc id='15']
Tesla Inc_ 4Q Delivery Miss, Storage Beat
Berkeley·2025-01-05 16:23