底部修复后的转债市场性价比怎么看

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the convertible bond market and its valuation trends, particularly focusing on the years 2021 and 2022 as reference points for comparison. Core Points and Arguments 1. The current valuation of convertible bonds is perceived to have improved following recent adjustments in the stock market, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity at this time [1] 2. Historical comparisons indicate that convertible bonds valued between 90 to 100 have an estimated valuation range of 20% to 25% for the years 2021 and 2022, while those valued between 100 to 110 range from 15% to 18% [2] 3. Higher-valued convertible bonds (110 to 120) currently show a lower valuation level of around 9%, which is below the average levels of 2021 and 2022 [3] 4. The overall valuation of convertible bonds is at a median level compared to historical data, with high-valued bonds still below the average levels of 2021 and 2022 [4] 5. The conversion premium for balanced convertible bonds is around 23%, aligning with historical averages since 2017 [5] 6. There is potential for significant upside in the valuation of balanced convertible bonds, which previously peaked at 30 during high valuation periods in 2021 and 2022 [6] 7. The current market does not exhibit signs of a bubble, but there is a notable gap in valuation compared to the high points of 2021 and 2022 [7] 8. The supply of convertible bonds is currently low, which may lead to a more favorable supply-demand dynamic compared to the years 2021 and 2022 [8] 9. Current investor concerns regarding high valuations are deemed reasonable, yet the low opportunity cost of static returns suggests potential for valuation recovery [9] 10. The relationship between risk-free interest rates and convertible bond valuations indicates that lower rates could lead to higher valuations, although current valuations remain relatively low [10] 11. The growth expectations for certain high-growth targets in 2021 and 2022 are not easily replicable in the current market, affecting comparative valuation [11] 12. The current environment suggests that investing in convertible bonds is more about assessing the underlying equity's performance rather than merely recovering asset values [12] 13. The valuation of convertible bonds may be underestimated if the low-risk-free rates are acknowledged as a significant factor in opportunity costs [13] 14. The market's focus may shift back to value factors post-earnings season, potentially introducing new risks [14] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The discussion emphasizes the need to differentiate between high-priced and low-priced convertible bonds, with the former focusing on equity performance and the latter on overall asset recovery [12][13] - The potential for new risk events in the market is acknowledged, indicating a cautious outlook despite the current favorable valuation conditions [14]