Key Points Industry and Company * Industry: Jewelry and luxury goods * Company: Old Patch Gold (Old Patch) * Focus: Analysis of Old Patch's business performance, valuation, and future prospects Core Views and Arguments * Stock Valuation: The stock price of Old Patch may be comparable to Pop Mart's growth trajectory, but the business models differ significantly. Old Patch operates in a high-price, low-repurchase rate market, unlike Pop Mart's high stickiness and high-repurchase rate. * Industry Beta: Old Patch benefits from the industry's beta, particularly from the growth of ancient gold compared to regular gold and hard gold, which has seen a growth rate of over 50% in the past few years and is expected to exceed 20% in the future. * Gold Price Fluctuations: The company's sales performance is somewhat decoupled from gold price fluctuations, as evidenced by the data in November and December. * Valuation: The valuation of Old Patch before and after the lock-up period is around 18-20 times earnings. The company was included in some clients' quarterly gold stocks at the end of December. * Growth Expectations: The market has a high expectation for Old Patch's growth in 2025 and 2026, with a potential EPS growth rate of 40-50%. * Brand Strength: Old Patch has a strong brand and is in a "cross-border" state, with significant growth potential. * Store Expansion: The company is cautious about store expansion, with a target of 60 stores in the future. * Distribution Channels: The company's sales are mainly through high-end shopping malls such as SKP and Wanda Plaza, with SKP and Wanda Plaza accounting for over 50% of the revenue. * Dai gou: The sales of Old Patch through dai gou are relatively high, with the top ten dai gou accounting for about 2 billion yuan in 2023. * Competitive Landscape: Old Patch faces competition from international jewelry brands and domestic high-end jewelry brands, but its competitive advantage lies in its brand strength and product innovation. Other Important Points * Store Optimization: The company actively optimizes and maintains its stores, improving their size and location. * Marketing Activities: The company actively participates in marketing activities and has increased its marketing efforts in recent years. * Employee Stock Ownership Plan: The company's employee stock ownership plan may be subject to delisting and reduction in the future. * Upcoming Events: The company will provide a pre-earnings guidance in March or April, and there will be a delisting event in June.
老铺黄金20250110