美国FSD深度实测感受分享

Summary of Tesla FSD Conference Call Company and Industry - Company: Tesla - Industry: Autonomous Driving Technology Key Points and Arguments - FSD v13 Performance: The FSD v13 version demonstrated strong general capabilities during a three-day test in Los Angeles, covering approximately 500 kilometers. However, it showed limitations in complex multi-level parking lots and extreme lighting conditions, leading to a low takeover rate compared to previous versions [2][5][10] - Development Paradigm Differences: Tesla's FSD development paradigm focuses on general model capabilities rather than specific function optimization, contrasting with domestic companies that prioritize independent product development for specific tasks [3][4] - Future Prospects: There is a probability that Tesla will initiate RoboTaxi trials in limited areas by Q2 or Q3 of 2024, contingent on the speed of iterations and localization efforts in China [3][7] - Challenges in China: Entering the Chinese market poses significant challenges due to the vast differences in traffic environments. Without substantial localization efforts, Tesla's FSD may struggle to adapt to local conditions [6][19] - Profitability Model: Tesla's FSD profitability relies on subscription services, which currently have a low uptake. Despite this, overall profits remain substantial due to consumer expectations and the maturity of the technology [16] - Technical Limitations: The pure vision approach faces challenges in extreme lighting and certain physical obstacles, but advancements in computational power and model parameters may eventually resolve these issues [11][14] - Consumer Expectations: Consumers expect a level of autonomy that minimizes the need for takeovers, aiming for L3 or higher capabilities. However, Tesla has not yet reached a point where it can claim zero takeovers [15][16] - Regulatory Impact: New regulations from the U.S. Department of Transportation may delay the rollout of fully autonomous vehicles like the Cybertruck until 2026, despite significant advancements in computational capabilities [17] - Comparison with Domestic Brands: Direct comparisons between Tesla and domestic brands like Huawei and Xpeng are complicated due to differing road conditions and regulations. However, if Tesla can effectively localize its FSD for China, it may become a leading player [18][20] - Market Trends: The domestic autonomous driving market is expected to evolve significantly over the next three years, with companies like Xpeng, Huawei, and Li Auto emerging as key players [20][22] - Technological Evolution: The debate between lidar and pure vision technology continues, but the industry may trend towards a model where the presence of lidar does not significantly impact vehicle safety or performance [23][24][35] Other Important Content - Testing Results: During the Los Angeles tests, only two comfort-related takeovers occurred, indicating a significant improvement in the system's performance [8][10] - Nighttime Performance: Cameras provide substantial information that can enhance nighttime performance, while lidar's advantages may diminish over time [33] - Extreme Weather Response: In extreme weather conditions, the best practice is to halt vehicle operation until conditions improve, as both pure vision systems and lidar face challenges [34]