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Multi-Industry_ US Reshoring on Humanoids
2025-02-23 14:59

Summary of the Conference Call on US Reshoring and Humanoids Industry Overview - Industry: Multi-Industry, focusing on US Manufacturing and the impact of Humanoid robots on reshoring efforts in North America [1][3][10] Key Points and Arguments 1. Reshoring Opportunity: The US has a 10trillionreshoringopportunity,significantlyenhancedbytheintroductionofHumanoidrobots,whichcanlowermanufacturingcostsanddriveprotectionism[1][10][29]2.∗∗CostComparison∗∗:Thereisamid−single−digit(MSD)costdeltabetweenUSmanufacturingandChineseexports,whichcanbeoffsetwithapproximately2010 trillion reshoring opportunity, significantly enhanced by the introduction of Humanoid robots, which can lower manufacturing costs and drive protectionism [1][10][29] 2. **Cost Comparison**: There is a mid-single-digit (MSD) cost delta between US manufacturing and Chinese exports, which can be offset with approximately 20% Humanoid penetration [1][14][39] 3. **Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)**: Humanoid adoption could lead to around 85% TCO savings compared to US human workers, allowing the US to achieve cost parity with China at about 20% Humanoid penetration [5][13][36] 4. **Market Growth**: The Humanoid market is projected to grow into an 80 billion industry over the next decade, contributing approximately 50 basis points (bps) of annual growth to the US industrial economy [21][58] 5. Power Supply as Competitive Advantage: The US's abundant low-cost hydrocarbons position it favorably in terms of power supply for manufacturing, which is expected to become a critical factor as Humanoids are deployed [23][68] 6. Electricity Demand Growth: The adoption of Humanoids is anticipated to reverse the decline in US manufacturing electricity consumption, contributing to a projected 2% annual growth in electricity demand from 2025 to 2050 [23][65] 7. Investment Trends: The US has experienced a significant under-investment in manufacturing over the past 25 years, with a cumulative shortfall of approximately 3trillionsince2000[55][60]8.∗∗GeographicShiftinManufacturing∗∗:ThereshoringprocessisexpectedtoshiftmanufacturingactivitybacktotheUS,enhancingmarketshareandprofitmarginsforUSindustrials[8][72]9.∗∗PreferredStocks∗∗:ETNandROKareidentifiedaspreferredstockswithinthereshoringtheme,withotherbeneficiariesincludingHUBB,FAST,FTV,andTT[8][72]AdditionalImportantInsights−∗∗HistoricalContext∗∗:TheUSmanufacturingsectorhaslostshareoverthelast45yearsascapitalexpenditureschasedlow−costlabor,butthistrendisexpectedtoreversewiththeriseofHumanoidtechnology[7][30]−∗∗SensitivityAnalysis∗∗:Asensitivityanalysisindicatesthatachievinga203 trillion since 2000 [55][60] 8. **Geographic Shift in Manufacturing**: The reshoring process is expected to shift manufacturing activity back to the US, enhancing market share and profit margins for US industrials [8][72] 9. **Preferred Stocks**: ETN and ROK are identified as preferred stocks within the reshoring theme, with other beneficiaries including HUBB, FAST, FTV, and TT [8][72] Additional Important Insights - **Historical Context**: The US manufacturing sector has lost share over the last 45 years as capital expenditures chased low-cost labor, but this trend is expected to reverse with the rise of Humanoid technology [7][30] - **Sensitivity Analysis**: A sensitivity analysis indicates that achieving a 20% global manufacturing share by 2050 could be conservative, given the US's significant share of global GDP and goods consumption [17][50] - **Labor Market Dynamics**: The production of Humanoids is projected to require a substantial fixed asset base, with an estimated annual capital expenditure of 25 billion over the next decade [58][59] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the potential impact of Humanoid robots on US manufacturing and reshoring efforts, highlighting both opportunities and challenges in the evolving industrial landscape.