中芯国际20250224

Summary of the Conference Call on SMIC Company and Industry - The conference call focuses on SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation), a key player in the semiconductor industry in China, particularly in the context of domestic computing power demand and advancements in new process technologies [1][9]. Core Points and Arguments 1. Investment Value of SMIC: The investment value of SMIC has been further strengthened due to the trends in new process technologies and the increasing demand for domestic computing power, particularly driven by the DeepSeek initiative [1][9]. 2. DeepSeek's Impact on Demand: The introduction of DeepSeek has optimized training and inference costs, leading to increased capital expenditure from both domestic and international cloud service providers, with North American cloud vendors expected to see a 30-40% increase in spending by 2025 [2][3]. 3. Domestic Cloud Providers' Spending: Domestic internet companies, such as Alibaba, are projected to significantly increase their capital expenditures over the next three years, surpassing the total of the past decade, indicating a robust growth in AI-related investments [3][4]. 4. Advancements in Domestic Chip Manufacturers: Domestic chip manufacturers are rapidly improving their hardware specifications, and the efficiency of their products is expected to increase due to innovative methods and open-source approaches introduced by DeepSeek [4][5]. 5. Long-term Viability of Domestic Computing Power: While imported chips have dominated the market, domestic computing power is becoming a reliable option for supporting the commercialization of domestic AI models [5][6]. 6. Geopolitical Context: The U.S. has imposed multiple sanctions on China's AI industry, which has created a pressing need for domestic computing power solutions. This geopolitical tension has reinforced the necessity for domestic chip manufacturers to develop their capabilities [6][7]. 7. Supply-Demand Dynamics: The supply-demand relationship for domestic available process technologies is becoming increasingly strained, with SMIC being the only supplier of available processes in China, enhancing its growth potential [8][9]. 8. Future Growth Projections: The demand for domestic computing power is expected to accelerate, with SMIC's new process technologies playing a crucial role in this growth. The company’s investment value is projected to increase as the domestic market for computing power expands [9][10]. 9. Target Valuation: The target price for SMIC has been revised upwards, with a projected market value of approximately HKD 500-600 billion, corresponding to a target price of around HKD 67 per share [10][11]. 10. A-Share Market Outlook: The A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term premium, with SMIC being viewed as a rare asset in the hard technology sector, making it a significant investment opportunity in the coming years [11]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The conference highlighted the importance of continuous research on SMIC's investment value, emphasizing its unique position in the A-share market amidst the growing demand for computing power and technological advancements in the semiconductor industry [11].