Global Semiconductor Equipment_ NAND capex recovery_

Summary of Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment industry, particularly the outlook for wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) spending in 2025 and 2026, with specific emphasis on NAND and DRAM segments [2][22]. Key Points and Arguments 1. WFE Spending Forecasts: - The WFE forecast for 2025 has been increased to $108 billion, remaining flat year-over-year, while the 2026 forecast is slightly reduced to$115 billion, reflecting an 8% year-over-year growth [2][22]. - The 2024 WFE number is confirmed at $108 billion, indicating a 10$0.9 billion for 2025 due to positive signs of accelerating capital expenditures in logic [36][34]. 3. NAND and DRAM Segments: - NAND spending is expected to grow by 43% year-over-year in 2025, driven by increased demand for upgrades and investments from YMTC, although it remains below the peak of $20 billion seen in 2021/22 [2][30]. - DRAM spending is forecasted to increase by 13$105 due to higher earnings expectations and a favorable outlook on NAND upgrades [3][38]. - Applied Materials (AMAT): Target price maintained at $210, with a positive view on secular WFE growth and capital return strategies [17][38]. - Tokyo Electron (TEL): Rated Outperform with a target price of ¥34,600, expected to gain market share and expand margins despite weaker contributions from China [4][11]. - Advantest: Target price set at ¥12,400, benefiting from AI testing demand and expected to increase average selling prices and margins [10][58]. - DISCO: Target price set at ¥55,200, dominant in the grinder and dicer market with a significant market share [9][58]. 5. Market Dynamics: - The semiconductor capital equipment market is experiencing a shift with local Chinese suppliers gaining market share due to domestic substitution [6][18][19]. - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious optimism regarding the recovery of NAND investments and the potential for growth in 2026 as the market normalizes [4][58]. Other Important Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring the impact of geopolitical factors on the semiconductor supply chain, particularly concerning China’s role in the global market [36][37]. - The discussion also pointed out the competitive landscape among major players, with companies like ASML and Lam Research positioned favorably due to their technological advancements and market strategies [5][16][38]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and forecasts discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the semiconductor capital equipment industry.