Investor Presentation_ The Tortoise And The Hare

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - S. Korea Technology: Industry view is cautious [1] - Greater China Technology Hardware: Industry view is in-line [1] - Semiconductor Production Equipment (Japan): Industry view is attractive [1] Core Insights and Arguments - AI Technology: - AI chips and supply chain are highlighted with key players including Alchip, TSMC, ASE, and others [3] - Edge AI adoption is expected to drive more upside in the smartphone supply chain due to favorable conditions [4] - China's capital expenditure is driven by faster inference and low-cost AI adoption [4] - Semiconductor Cycle: - The industry is moving past the 'Euphoria' stage of the semiconductor cycle, indicating a cyclical downturn [5] - The S&P 500 has been outperforming semiconductors since October 2024 [7] - Market Performance: - The relative performance of AI vs. Non-AI sectors has shown convergence since the introduction of ChatGPT, with no longer a premium on NTM P/E [10] - Traditional tech is experiencing macro tailwinds, moving closer to a trough cycle [13][16] - Memory Market: - The DRAM cycle is moving past the euphoria stage, with earnings and guidance turning cautious [29] - Memory inventory levels are near historical highs, indicating potential oversupply [37] Important but Overlooked Content - Subsector Performance: - Performance metrics for various semiconductor subsectors from January 2025 show mixed results, with MLCC and Cloud Semis performing positively while Data Center Hardware and Networking Equipment are underperforming [23] - Demand Forecasts: - Demand for servers, PCs, and smartphones is projected to fluctuate, with specific year-on-year changes noted for each category [55] - The overall MLCC market is expected to see an increase in total addressable market (TAM) due to cloud and Edge AI, adding approximately US$600 million by 2026 [52] - High Bandwidth Memory (HBM): - HBM total addressable market (TAM) is forecasted to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 109% from 2023 to 2027 [41] - HBM usage per GPGPU and ASIC is expected to increase, indicating a growing demand for high-performance memory solutions [41] - Pricing Trends: - Quarterly pricing trends for DRAM and NAND flash indicate fluctuations, with expectations of price increases in early 2024 followed by declines later in the year [54] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the semiconductor and technology industries.