Asia in Focus_ Decoding China’s export and import trends during 2017-24 (Yang_Shan)

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China's Export and Import Trends (2017-2024) Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese trade industry, analyzing export and import trends from 2017 to 2024 amidst significant global events such as the US-China trade war, the Covid pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine war [3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - Export Growth: China's nominal exports grew at an annual average rate of 6.7% from 2017 to 2024, totaling a 58% cumulative increase. This growth rate is significantly higher than the 5.1% annual average growth rate of imports, which amounted to a 42% cumulative increase [3][7]. - Global Export Share: China's share of global exports rose from 12.9% in 2017 to 14.8% in 2024, while major exporting countries like Japan and Germany saw declines in their global export shares [4][27]. - Trade Surplus: China's goods trade surplus more than doubled from approximately USD 420 billion in 2017 to nearly USD 1 trillion in 2024, surpassing the combined surpluses of the next eight countries [4][26]. - Emerging Markets (EM) vs. Developed Markets (DM): The share of EM economies in China's exports and imports increased significantly, with EM economies accounting for 55% of exports and 51% of imports in 2024, up from 46% and 39% in 2017, respectively [3][14]. - Geopolitical Influence: The shift in trade patterns is closely linked to geopolitical factors, with stronger trade ties observed between China and EM countries, particularly those with closer geopolitical relations to China, such as Russia and ASEAN nations [18][23]. Additional Important Insights - Product-Specific Trends: Chinese exports showed broad-based growth across various sectors, including transportation equipment, chemicals, and machinery, while imports were primarily concentrated in commodities and basic materials [17][19]. - Bilateral Trade Dynamics: China's trade balance improved with most major economies, including a notable increase in the trade surplus with the US, which rose to USD 361 billion in 2024 from USD 276 billion in 2017 [27][30]. - Import Substitution: There has been a significant trend towards import substitution in China, with domestic production of goods like autos and machine tools outpacing imports, indicating a shift towards self-reliance [39][44]. - Future Outlook: The report suggests that these trends are likely to persist, with continued expansion of Chinese exports, underperformance in imports, and a rising trade surplus unless there is strong pushback from trading partners [44]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the resilience and adaptability of China's trade dynamics in the face of global challenges, emphasizing the importance of geopolitical relationships and domestic policy shifts in shaping future trade patterns.