Summary of Zhaojin Mining Industry Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Zhaojin Mining Industry (1818.HK) - Industry: Greater China Materials, specifically gold mining Key Financial Results - 2024 Net Profit: Rmb1.45 billion, an increase of 111% YoY [1] - Gold Output: Total gold output grew 7% YoY to 26.45 tons, with mined gold rising 4% YoY to 18.34 tons [1] - SG&A as % of Revenue: Decreased to 12.8%, the lowest since 2013, compared to 15-21% in 2020-2023 [1] - Dividend Declared: Rmb0.05/share, implying an 11% payout compared to 19% in 2023 [1] Market Outlook - Gold Price Forecast: Anticipated to rise by 16% YoY to US17.20, representing a 14% upside from the current price of HK6.328 billion [3] - 52-Week Range: HK8.98 [3] Financial Projections - Revenue Growth: Projected revenue for 2024 is Rmb10.535 billion, increasing to Rmb22.974 billion by 2026 [3] - EBITDA: Expected to grow from Rmb3.669 billion in 2024 to Rmb6.554 billion in 2026 [3] - EPS: Projected EPS of Rmb0.41 in 2024, increasing to Rmb0.88 by 2026 [3] Risks and Considerations - Upside Risks: Stronger-than-expected gold prices, further RMB depreciation, and higher production volumes than anticipated [9] - Downside Risks: Falling gold prices due to US dollar strength, execution risks in new projects, and increased borrowings leading to higher financing costs [9] Additional Insights - First Overseas Revenue: The acquisition of Tietto and the Abujar Gold Mine contributed 12% of revenue in 2024 [2] - Analyst Team: The report was prepared by a team of equity analysts from Morgan Stanley, indicating a collaborative approach to the analysis [3] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Zhaojin Mining Industry, highlighting its financial performance, market outlook, valuation, and associated risks.
招金矿业：2024 年业绩超预期，未来有多重利好