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Ternium(TX) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
TXTernium(TX)2025-04-30 12:30

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ternium reported a net income of 142millionforQ12025,whichincludesa142 million for Q1 2025, which includes a 45 million provision adjustment charge related to ongoing litigation [16] - Adjusted net income, excluding the major charge, was 188million,markingasignificantimprovementoverthepriorquarter[16]ThecompanyanticipatesachievingadoubledigitEBITDAmargininQ22025,supportedbyincreasedrealizedpricesinMexicoandcostreductioninitiatives[9][10]BusinessLineDataandKeyMetricsChangesThesteelsegmentsawhighershipmentsinBrazilandothermarkets,partiallyoffsetbylowersalesvolumesinMexico[17]Miningsegmentshipmentsincreasedslightlyquarteroverquarterandrose14188 million, marking a significant improvement over the prior quarter [16] - The company anticipates achieving a double-digit EBITDA margin in Q2 2025, supported by increased realized prices in Mexico and cost reduction initiatives [9][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The steel segment saw higher shipments in Brazil and other markets, partially offset by lower sales volumes in Mexico [17] - Mining segment shipments increased slightly quarter-over-quarter and rose 14% year-over-year, driven by higher production levels in Mexico and Brazil [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Mexico, apparent consumption of steel decreased almost 5% in 2024, with ongoing challenges in the construction sector affecting demand [30] - Brazil's local market is showing resilient steel demand, but there has been a significant year-over-year increase in imports [7] - Argentina's macroeconomic situation is improving, which is expected to support increased shipments in the upcoming quarters [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Ternium aims to enhance competitiveness by increasing operational efficiency and reducing costs amid a challenging trade environment [8] - The company is focusing on a significant expansion project in Mexico, with a revised total CapEx of 4 billion, representing a 16% increase from previous estimates [11] - The expansion will integrate advanced technology to improve operational efficiency and product quality, enabling Ternium to meet growing demand in the USMCA region [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted that trade tensions and uncertainty are impacting global economic growth, but there is optimism regarding the reduction of reliance on Asian suppliers in North America [5][6] - The implementation of Plan Mexico is expected to enhance industrialization and strengthen the North American supply chain [6][13] - Management expressed confidence that the USMCA will become stronger and better prepared for future growth [14] Other Important Information - The company continues to maintain a strong balance sheet with a net cash position of 1.3billionasofMarch2025[22]TerniumstotalCapExfor2025isprojectedtobearound1.3 billion as of March 2025 [22] - Ternium's total CapEx for 2025 is projected to be around 2.5 billion, with significant investments in ongoing projects [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding the situation in Mexico and industrial customers - Management acknowledged the challenges in the Mexican market but expects demand to improve in the following quarters, particularly in the commercial sector [30][31] Question: On margins and profitability levels - Management noted that while margins have decreased, they expect a gradual improvement moving forward, with better margins anticipated in Q2 2025 [35][36] Question: On cost reductions and future volume growth - Management confirmed ongoing cost reduction initiatives and the potential for volume growth in Mexico, with a significant decrease in imports creating opportunities [41][42] Question: On cash returns and dividend payments - Management stated that despite uncertainties, they aim to sustain dividend payments due to a solid financial position [50] Question: On the outlook for Argentina's steel sector - Management expressed optimism about the improving outlook for the steel sector in Argentina, with expectations for increased shipments in the coming quarters [52] Question: On CapEx increase and project timelines - Management explained that the CapEx increase is due to higher construction costs and inflation, with the revised budget impacting the timeline of the expansion project [59][60] Question: On the U.S.-Mexico relationship and steel pricing - Management emphasized the need for a reasonable negotiation between the U.S. and Mexico regarding steel tariffs, expressing confidence in a favorable outcome [72][75] Question: On FX controls in Argentina and dividend payments - Management indicated that recent changes in FX controls are positive, allowing for more flexibility in dividend payments from Ternium Argentina [78][80]