Mindray Bio-Medical_ 4Q24 In Line; 1Q25 Slightly Below but Largely Expected

Summary of Mindray Bio-Medical Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Mindray Bio-Medical (300760.SZ) - Industry: Healthcare, specifically medical devices and equipment Key Takeaways - China's Growth Outlook: Mindray anticipates that China's growth will return to positive territory by 3Q25, driven by improving tender momentum, diminishing impacts from Diagnosis-Related Groups (DRG), and a favorable comparison base [2][9] - LLM Model Implementation: The LLM model has been installed in several flagship hospitals, with a target of penetrating 20 hospitals by 2025. The near-term earnings impact from this initiative is expected to be limited [2][9] - Sales and Profit Performance: - 2024 sales increased by 5% YoY, and net profit rose by 1%, aligning with estimates. Excluding finance costs, sales growth was 4% YoY, indicating a 4Q24 sales decline of 5% and profit drop of 41% YoY [9][11] - 1Q25 sales decreased by 12% YoY but increased by 14% QoQ, with net profit down 17% YoY, both figures falling short of estimates [9][11] - Dividend Policy: The dividend payout ratio for 2024 was approximately 65%, with a commitment to maintain at least a 65% payout over the next three years [9][11] Regional Performance - Overseas Sales Growth: - Sales grew by 21% YoY in 2024, contributing to 45% of total sales. Emerging Markets (EM) saw a 25% increase, with Asia at 39% and Latin America at 22%. Developed Markets (DM) grew by 15%, with Europe at 32% and North America at 2% [9][11] - New businesses and In Vitro Diagnostics (IVD) contributed nearly 30% and 10% of overseas sales, respectively [9][11] - China Sales Decline: Sales in China fell by 5% YoY in 2024, with a more significant decline of 20% in the second half of the year, attributed to delayed tenders and severe DRG impacts on IVD since 3Q24 [9][11] Segment Performance - PMLS Segment: Sales dropped by 11% YoY in 2024, with a 31% decline in China but a 13% increase overseas. The MISIA segment remained strong with over 30% growth YoY, expected to continue in 2025 due to consumable sales following Value-Based Procurement (VBP) [9][11] - IVD Segment: Sales increased by 11% YoY, with a 1% rise in China and over 30% growth overseas. Mindray has become the third-largest player in China by CLIA market share, with significant installations of analyzers [9][11] - MIS Segment: Sales grew by 7% YoY, with a 2% decline in China but a 15% increase overseas. Mindray achieved over 30% market share in ultrasound in China [9][11] Financial Metrics - Market Capitalization: Approximately Rmb261.13 billion [9] - Earnings Projections: - EPS for 2024 is projected at Rmb9.51, with growth expected to Rmb10.13 in 2025 and Rmb11.17 in 2026 [9] - Revenue projections for 2025 are Rmb39.34 billion, increasing to Rmb43.06 billion by 2026 [9] Risks and Considerations - Potential Upside Risks: Stronger equipment trade-in policies, faster-than-expected product sales ramp-up, and accretive mergers and acquisitions [16] - Potential Downside Risks: Prolonged negative impacts from policy headwinds, trade tensions, and failure to achieve synergies from M&A [16] Conclusion Mindray Bio-Medical is navigating a challenging environment with mixed performance across regions and segments. The company is optimistic about future growth in China and overseas, supported by strategic initiatives and a solid dividend policy. However, it faces risks that could impact its financial performance in the coming years.