Lam Research(LRCX)2024-04-25 01:45Financial Data and Key Metrics - Revenue for the March quarter was 7.79, towards the higher end of the guided range [42] - Cash and short-term investments at the end of the March quarter totaled 5.6 billion at the end of the December quarter [42] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - Systems revenue in the memory segment was 44% in the March quarter, down from 48% in the prior quarter [40] - DRAM represented 23% of systems revenue in the March quarter, down from 31% in the December quarter [40] - Non-volatile memory represented 21% of systems revenue in the March quarter, up from 17% in the prior quarter [16] - Foundry segment represented 44% of systems revenue in the March quarter, up from 38% in the December quarter [16] - Logic and other segments were 12% of systems revenue in the March quarter, down from 14% in the prior quarter [16] Market Data and Key Metrics - China region revenue was 42% in the March quarter, up from 40% in the prior quarter [70] - Korea region revenue was 24% in the March quarter, up from 19% in the December quarter [70] - Spares revenue saw double-digit percent growth quarter-over-quarter in the March quarter [34] - Reliant systems revenue decreased in the March quarter due to continued weakness in mature node investments [41] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company is investing in differentiated approaches, including putting more capabilities and resources close to customers and leveraging proprietary Semiverse solutions digital twin capabilities [35] - The company is well-positioned for architectural and material changes such as gate-all-around, advanced packaging, backside power delivery, and the move to dry photoresist [72] - The company expects to benefit from powerful secular drivers of semiconductor growth and innovation, including generative AI and other emerging smart applications [25] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Industry WFE spending for calendar 2024 is expected to be in the low to mid 104 million, down 860 million to share repurchases and paid 263 million in dividends in the March quarter [71] Q&A Session Summary Question: High aspect ratio etch for NAND market share dynamics [44] - The company has an installed base of Cryo Etch tools approaching 1,000 chambers and continues to defend market share in high aspect ratio etch for NAND [63] Question: Gross margin moderation in the June quarter [21] - Gross margin decline in the June quarter is reflective of a quarter-to-quarter change in customer mix, with China region spending expected to modulate through the year [45] Question: China region moderation and segment specifics [52] - China region revenue came in as expected in the March quarter, with no specific segment-level color for the expected moderation in the second half [95] Question: Advanced packaging revenue opportunity [67] - The company expects advanced packaging equipment revenue to exceed 1 billion in 2024, with strong long-term growth potential [77] Question: Transition from tungsten to molybdenum in NAND [78] - The transition to molybdenum in NAND is an important inflection for the industry, with significant device benefits and cost and technology advantages [79] Question: HBM growth and market dynamics [80] - The company expects HBM-related shipments to grow more than three times in calendar year 2024, driven by AI enablement and increased demand for high bandwidth memory [81] Question: Customer classification in NAND and DRAM [82] - The company classified one customer's investment in specialty DRAM as a non-volatile investment due to its non-volatile component, which may differ from industry classifications [82] Question: Reliant business changes and profitability [83] - The company expects the Reliant business to remain mostly as a new tool trailing etch node business, with limited movement towards refurbished tools [83] Question: Capital intensity of upgrades versus greenfield investments for NAND [85] - In an upgrade-heavy cycle, the company expects to capture a higher percentage of WFE, with revenue opportunities similar to greenfield investments due to higher capture rates [112] Question: CHIPS Act impact and timing of potential orders [107] - The company expects CHIPS Act-related opportunities to be more of a 2025, 2026, and 2027 timeframe, with significant investment targeted towards leading-edge nodes [54] Question: NAND improvement trajectory into 2025 [102] - The company is in the early stages of seeing NAND spending recover, with significant upgrade activity expected in 2025 as customers move towards more efficient technology nodes [102] Question: DRAM capacity and HBM dynamics [138] - The company highlighted the additional tools needed to enable HBM, with DRAM equipment requirements increasing due to larger die sizes and TSV integration [138] Question: Gate-all-around technology and revenue opportunity [139] - The company expects over 1 billion to $1.5 billion in WFE, with utilization rates now recovering and driving spending levels consistent with this estimate [141]