：图说大宗：溢价退潮，回归基本面

Industry and Company Overview This research report focuses on the macroeconomic environment and commodity markets, analyzing various sectors and their respective trends. Key themes include: * Market sentiment shifting from premium to fundamentals: After a period of elevated sentiment driven by geopolitical risks, markets are expected to return to a focus on fundamental factors. * Commodity prices experiencing mixed trends: While some commodities are facing downward pressure due to weak demand or oversupply, others are benefiting from supply constraints or seasonal demand. * Global economic outlook remains uncertain: Factors such as inflation, monetary policy, and geopolitical tensions continue to create uncertainty and volatility in commodity markets. Key Points Macro Review * Inflation and monetary policy: Inflation remains a concern, with both PPI and CPI showing slight increases in April. However, the slowdown in credit growth and monetary tightening suggest a potential easing of inflationary pressures. * China's economic outlook: The report highlights the challenges facing China's economy, including slowing growth, weak consumption, and high debt levels. The government's efforts to stimulate the economy through infrastructure spending and other measures are expected to have a limited impact. * Global economic outlook: The report notes that the global economic outlook remains uncertain, with factors such as inflation, monetary policy, and geopolitical tensions creating volatility in commodity markets. Commodity Markets * Oil: The report expects oil prices to remain supported by supply constraints and seasonal demand. However, the potential for oversupply and the impact of geopolitical tensions remain key risks. * Natural gas: The report highlights the potential for higher natural gas prices in Europe due to supply constraints and the need for seasonal inventory replenishment. In the US, the report expects natural gas prices to rise as demand increases during the summer months. * Coal: The report notes that coal prices have bottomed out and are expected to rise slightly as demand picks up during the summer months. * Metals: The report highlights the mixed trends in metal prices, with some metals facing downward pressure due to weak demand or oversupply, while others are benefiting from supply constraints or seasonal demand. * Agricultural commodities: The report notes that agricultural commodity prices are expected to remain volatile, with factors such as weather conditions and supply chain disruptions playing a significant role. Sector Analysis * Energy: The report expects energy prices to remain supported by supply constraints and seasonal demand. However, the potential for oversupply and the impact of geopolitical tensions remain key risks. * Metals: The report highlights the mixed trends in metal prices, with some metals facing downward pressure due to weak demand or oversupply, while others are benefiting from supply constraints or seasonal demand. * Agricultural commodities: The report notes that agricultural commodity prices are expected to remain volatile, with factors such as weather conditions and supply chain disruptions playing a significant role. * Precious metals: The report expects precious metal prices to remain supported by factors such as inflation and geopolitical tensions. Conclusion This research report provides a comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic environment and commodity markets. The report highlights the potential risks and opportunities in various sectors and offers insights into the future direction of commodity prices.